Table Games Prediction for Table Limits Post 100% Capacity

Well the original question was asking for sort of a prediction on what the post-pandemic limits will look like around Vegas. So for posterity here are mine (without all the fancy casino math)....

Strip BJ: It seems clear that you'll never see a $5 BJ game on the strip again. I think post-pandemic you'll be able to find an $10 6:5 on the weekdays at places like TI, Sahara, maybe the Trop, Excalibur, CC. What I'm concerned about is that it will be increasingly hard to find anything under $15, and then of course only at 6:5. I do think that real blackjack will be mostly confined to $25 and above, and above that at the foo-foo places -- with occasional exceptions of course.

Strip craps: I think $5 craps on the strip is dead as well (there were always a few morning games opening at the $5 level in 2019 if you knew where to look). However, I think there will be a healthy amount of $10 games during the week. Heck, Encore was holding on to a $10 game for a lot of the pandemic, tho' lots of places are trying to push to $15 as the standard . Again, what I fear is that the push will be to $15/$25 during the weekends on the strip. Also the continuing rise of crapless craps for that $10/$15 game, especially as the sole game at that level on the weekends.

Strip roulette: I think I see the rise of $10 min/$1 chip 000 roulette on the strip, with a $15 double zero game sitting next to it. I don't think the strip is coming off of $15 roulette mins without 000.

Downtown BJ: I think Derek's casinos, Plaza, Boyd, and the El Cortez will all continue to support $10 3:2 BJ in some healthy capacity, so it won't go away. However, given their neighbor's strong push to 6:5, I think there will be pressure to sprinkle in additional 6:5 well before trying to push to $15. We'll see if both the Nugget and Circa can sustain ongoing $15+ minimums. My guess is they can.

Downtown craps: Ah, I think this is the greatest loss of all....but I go back to playing quarters (NOT green chips....quarters) at the Plaza. I think once we get back to full capacity and the Hawaiians are back in full force, you'll see $5 tables at the Cal and MSS again, which will put some pressure on downtown. However, I think the lovely always available GG $5 game on the big tub and great cocktail service may be gone for good. During the week tho', I don't think $5 tables will be rare post-pandemic...just not always available at your day and casino of choice. Thankfully most places don't have enough floor space to just sneak in a lot the crapless variety.

Downtown roulette: Another loss of the quarter chip tables I'm sure. I think you'll still be able to find a $5 double-zero during the week, but the most common game will become $10 double-zero, which will be available widely.

Off -strip (I use places like Gold Coast, Orleans, and Southpoint as my standards, tho' I get to Ellis and a Station casino on occassion)

Off-strip BJ: I think you'll be able to find a $5 3:2 game if you really search, but finding a $10 3:2 won't really be a problem, and finding this as double deck pitch will still be in multiple places.

Off-strip craps: Well I'm floored that the Gold Coast is sitting at all $10 mins right now -- they ALWAYS had at least three nickel tables going and pretty full for the past 25 years. I think all of the traditional $5 places that have pushed upwards are going to try to hold on to that level for as long as they possibly can. However, I'm hopeful that there will be just enough local pressure that the $5 game won't disappear completely. I've spent too much time hanging with the $5 locals....they won't suddenly have such great new jobs coming out of this that they can all step up to the $10 game.

Off-strip roulette: Still plenty of $5 min/dollar chip roulette. Quarter chip games continuing to disappear entirely -- hang on Jerry's....hang on!

I'll come back in 18 months and see if I'm right!

 

NYNY used to make a big deal of having $5 blackjack. The rules sucked but it existed.

When things are more normal I would not be shocked at all if it returned.

Again - terrible rules, but there.

Demand for Vegas is sky high right now and will continue being sky high for a while. When things slide back to normal you'll see some changes back to the pre-pandemic way of things.

Ultimately some of these places need reasons to get people in their doors vs. other people's doors. Right now they don't need a reason -people are coming in droves due to pent up demand. That will eventually subside.

 

Yes..for many years Bellagio capped their pits with a single five seat $5 accessible table all the time. You could never get on that table (always full) but it was seemingly always there. Any report on that table (I haven't been in the Bellagio for several years quite frankly).

 

For the most part, I agree with all of this.

$15 blackjack will be the bottom level on the strip at 6:5. $5 blackjack will probably be fairly widely available at 6:5 at the stadium style video screened blackjack. I think this is going to become a common concept in strip casinos.

$10 craps will be a weekday morning only sighting. I suppose I could still see Excalibur, Bally's, Treasure Island having $10 craps more often. Bottom line, COVID was a great excuse to up the table minimums and I think they will be here for good. People will come to play them like crazy once LV opens up in a couple months.

Downtown, I don't think 6:5 blackjack will suddenly become more rampant. Downtown has boomed in the last several years because of strip gambling becoming so bad. If they start reducing paybacks on VP, and worsening table game rules...there won't be nearly as big of an incentive for gamblers to come downtown as opposed to the strip.

Honestly, I think the biggest change of all of this is going to be the increase of foot traffic in off-strip casinos. Places like South Point, Orleans, Ellis Island, Gold Coast will be able to up their table limits too. I can see all of these places no longer having $5 table games. Ellis Island has already recently downgraded their VP and it's getting less and less common to find $5 games as opposed to $10 games.

Hole in the wall casinos are going to start seeing a jump in action. Jerry's Nugget, Tuscany, Silver 7's, Palace Station, other small joints on Boulder Highway and parts of North Las Vegas are going to be stops that people no longer thought about, but will be much more frequented because they will be the only places to find low, low limits from 5-10 years ago.

Or I'm just completely off base. Who the hell knows. I enjoy making the predictions and reading others' though.

 

Really? I suppose it would be more fair to say "$10 player", but even at $5, it's close: $5 line, $10 odds, $12 6, $12 8, $10 5, $10 9, $2 C/E, $10 in hardway bets = $71.
Now, reduce that by $10 or $12 for any point of 5,6,8 or 9... that gets you as low as $59 per pass.

 

I would guess you're getting realistic. I messaged one of my friends who is a boxman at our local casino for his thoughts on this, but even at 60 bucks per pass you still have to factor in rolls per hour to get in line with somewhat of a comparison. I do however think you're not realizing how many people are "learning" craps at the 5 dollar table and betting just 5 on the pass line or maybe 5 and odds.

 

You guys paint a dark picture. Vegas only exists because of gambling/casinos. Yet now gamblers on this board say the casinos aren’t the main attraction and you may be right. If the suits are indeed saying the gamblers (that includes the 5 and 10 dollar players) don’t matter anymore, then when other gambling destinations figure out all they need is a little more entertainment and I mean just a little, then Vegas is left with a fancy hotel in the middle of the f***ing desert. It may take awhile but if they continue to de-emphasize gambling that’s where they will end up.

 

This is partially the truth. The strip has pushed me out. No more gaming on the strip for me (with the occasionally play at Bally's or Luxor if the wife is playing slots). I'll hold my craps funds for downtown and off strip.

My wife used to work at Disney. $10 years ago you could get a pretzel for a few dollars. Now they are $6. We are a dual income family with no kids. We still think Disney is expensive.

The strip is doing the same thing. We are milking the nice free rooms as long as we can. However, this stay we are pivoting off strip and staying 2 (of 10) nights at El Cortez to spend a lot more time downtwon and 1 night at South Point since they have everything we want there.

I'm giving the strip over to people who want bad odds and enjoy paying through the nose for drinks/clubs. There seem to be plenty that are willing to, so I hold no ill will to Mlife and Caesars to milk what they can out of them. Until people vote with their wallets, they have no incentive to drop prices or give you a better game.

 

Lot of it doesn't make sense to me. The companies are charging the resort fees and parking fees and are charging more for shows and meals. And yes, I know that table minimums should increase somewhat due to the higher costs of paying employees salaries and benefits. But the rules changes coupled with the increased mins are what gets me. Again, there is no reason why $15 3/2 blackjack shouldn't be offered widespread on the Strip, and not something you have to search for.

 

Yes...I didn't even consider the stadium games....but that is clearly where all the $5 action will migrate to. Which of course allows the live tables to be $10+.

Again, the downtown casinos don't have the real estate for a bunch of stadium games, and I don't think the locals will stand for it. So I'm still not worried long-term being able to find the $5/$10 game of choice. It just won't be along Las Vegas Blvd. south of Sahara Ave.

I still very very much love $5 craps over $10 craps on a traditional table with mostly knowledgeable (if a bit eccentric) players personally, and that is the one I'm most worried about.....so I'm going to remain optimistic for now!

 

On one hand, the tables have always been full with the much higher table limits (well, 1/2 table full really) during Covid that one could speculate the limits will remain high afterward.

On the other hand, the only people in Vegas are gamblers. Once the tourist and convention people return (essentially non-gamblers) the tables may become empty thus causing limits to come down to get people to play.

On a side note, max Craps limit I play is $10 and try to play 1 session a day. Due to table limits being so high, I reserved my bankroll for the last day/night of our trip in March and played at the $25 table.
Ended down overall, but actually got to play 3 different sessions and had a blast.

 

It's not the suits saying gamblers don't matter, it's the actual revenue streams saying it. Trying to base future decisions on theoretical revenue vs knowing you can sell a $30 bottle of Absolut for 350 is the reason casinos have reduced how much they care about gamblers. The increase in entertainment brings in people who don't care about gambling, so any "destination" can increase the entertainment and drive more people in. Hell, Disney is a perfect example of this, Strip level pricing and no gambling at all. As long as convention business fills weekday rooms and California twenty somethings still club on weekends, the reality is Vegas (the strip) doesn't care at all about a 5 dollar craps player.

However, and this is important, if things change economically or another place becomes the hot destination, and the club revenue drops and the dining revenue drops and the room revenue drops, the casino will once again have to cater to the smaller denomination players.

 

@topcard my buddy texted me back, asking not to name the property, but it's in Pennsylvania, and said that when his table his a 5$ table, he guesstimates the average bet per player to be around 17-20 dollars. Obviously this factors in rolls where they are coming out, so he figured during a pass the average 5 dollar player is at maybe 25 bucks per pass. He felt that the bulk of 5 dollar players were either learning the game or working on limited bankroll. He also said there are absolutely 5 dollar players table players who average $100+ a roll because they like to spread and max odds and have multiple come bets, but he felt it was rare for him to have more than 1 or 2 on a table. He said they don't like higher limits because they like to spread their money around the table, but when not playing craps a lot of those guys are $50 blackjack players and 1-2$ video poker players. He also said without a doubt, everyone working for the casino would prefer a nearly empty 25$ craps table to a full $5 table. Which is why his property now only deals 5$ craps M-Th from 7 am - 11 am. And only one table. After that everything is 10$ and up. On weekends they usually run every table at 25 or 100 and they are all typically 1/3 to 1/2 full.

The one advantage they have is no competition, so I think competition will ultimately keep table game minimums as low as possible in LV, but it certainly won't shock me if $10 becomes the new $5.

 

It is funny you say that about no more gambling on the strip. Just yesterday I told my wife Uber will be our new BFF this October. We got a great deal at the Aria and we most likely will be playing VP at the bar tops in those fancy places but when it comes time to settle on in for some blackjack action The Orleans and South Point are looking better and better. BTW most likely this will be our last trip to Las Vegas. We really just go for the convenience of numerous casinos within walking distance of each other. I live 30 minutes from the Hard Rock in Tampa. They offer plenty of $15.00 3/2 BJ in the morning hours. They have a ton of $25.00 tables during other hours. Biloxi is a 50 minute direct flight vs.Las Vegas being a long ways away. I am 64 years old and I must admit I miss the old days. Cheap rooms, cheap food and cheap table. Vegas was such a bargain in those days.

 

There is a lot of talk about Vegas being expensive and pricing itself for some individuals. I tend to disagree with this generalization. By being a member of a rewards club, you can get free or discounted rooms. Even if you were paying a $150 (resort fee included) per night for a four star hotel on a strip it is a bargain. Try getting those rates in other major cities. Yes, some of the food options can be expensive but there are also a lot of great reasonably price options available. With table games, the minimums have gone up but do we really expect them to remain static? I think it is a reasonable to expectations Strip casinos to have higher minimums.

 

Nevada March 2021 gaming revenues just released. Compared to March 2019 (last pre-pandemic March):

State up 4 percent
Strip down 9 percent
DTLV up 21 percent

Granted, Strip hurt by lack of conventions (and probably international travel restrictions). And downtown has been boosted by the addition of Circa. But 21 percent with capacity limits? Pretty impressive.

 

I realize with the strip having close proximity to other resorts and downtown that they "should" be competitive on their table minimums. On the other hand, everything across the board is more expensive on the strip vs other places. Food, drinks, gaming, rooms, etc are all a premium there and lots of people are willing to pay the prices. So that means those prices will be here to stay.

I know there are a lot of people feel that they have been priced out of staying on the strip, or in Las Vegas completely. But I will say that other than Atlantic City, there isn't another city in the U.S. that has all that Vegas has to offer. I am one of those that the prices don't deter me from going. I make a trip or 2 a year there and make a budget for everything I want. Inflation has taken its toll on consumers over the decades, so naturally the table minimums are just one of the things that has to go up. That and I don't want to be playing craps at the Bellagio along side with, no offense, people that are buying in for their last 20 and trying to make a big comeback playing the field. I chose Vegas for the experiences I cannot get where I live.

Call me crazy, but those resorts were not built on winners, and the only way they can maintain the atmosphere that I enjoy is to make money off me and everyone else that goes there. They cannot maintain the costs to keep the doors open by filling the casino floors with 5 and 10 dollar bj and craps tables, especially when, for the last year, there were no shows or clubs to make money off of the people that come to Vegas and not gamble.
Just my 2 cents

 

The world is just getting more expensive, thats all there is to it. It sucks for people in the middle class because wages aren't going up as fast as everything else, but it is what it is.

A $5 table in 2001 is fairly close to being a $10 table in 2021. And Vegas has gotten way nicer since 2001, and much more popular as well. 6:5 blackjack is a way of raising the price of blackjack without providing the sticker shock that higher minimums bring. Can't blame the casinos for increasing minimums as high as they can and then seeing what happens.

Hail2Skins and I are both in DC area and accustomed to higher minimums to the point where a $15 6:5 table is cheap. MGMNH very rarely has minimums less than $25 and the tables are packed. MGMNH is making more money than they did pre-pandemic because people keep playing the higher minimum tables.

Personally, I don't really want to see $5 tables again because those are the tables where you see people buying in with 1 dollar bills spending their last dollar. The crowd at MGMNH can get rough even with the high minimums, I cant imagine what it would be like if they lowered minimums to $5.

 

Not trying to gang up on you but not even close from my experiences. We don’t need to get intel from Vegas. There is enough here on VMB. I’m going to say that it’s much, much lower.

Just read when people report on their buy-ins....$200 buy-in isn’t going to last long....

 

The other thing is that, for better or for worse, people just do not pay attention, and I can't fault the casinos for capitalizing on that. I always say that if you've got a full 6:5 table next to an empty 3:2 table, at exactly the same minimums, you'd be a fool not to keep the 6:5 table open.

It really is amazing how inexpensive Vegas is for the value you get from the resorts. Coming from NYC, $150/night would get you a broom closet. One of the things that got me into Vegas was a trip I took there with some friends (second one ever, right around when we turned 21). We had previously gone to Montreal together, and stayed in a hostel that was $8 per person per night; with four of us, that was $32/night. It was a former schoolhouse with cinderblock walls. We then went to Vegas and stayed at Excalibur, which is obviously not the Four Seasons, but not that bad in the grand scheme of things, and it was $29/night.