Table Games Prediction for Table Limits Post 100% Capacity

Find me a casino dealing maskless even odds BJ and I would be there. Kind of like sacrificing 6-5 for go-go dancers. Always a trade off.

 

I saw a crazy craps table limit in November of 2020. At the table behind the bird bar. The table was half $10 min and half $5. The dealer said they where running the table Sunday Tuesday and Thursday nights. I wonder if something like that will come back

 

To be fair, without wading into the mask debate, I think there are numerous people that would say the opposite, including many folks I know personally.

 

Hop in a time machine and go to Main Street Station toward the end of 2019.

 

South Point is pretty good with discretionary comps at the $10 tables as long as you've put some time in and have been friendly to the dealer and pit staff.

 

While I will agree nothing takes place in a vacuum, casinos look at every single aspect to determine their bottom line, and since they base a lot of intake on potential (theoretical) revenue they have to be prepared to capture it. So that $100 sitting empty for 7 hours of an eight hour shift, but full for 1 hour generates more than the 5$ table does for the full shift. Hell 1 hour of a full table at 100/ hand is as good as 20 hours of a full 5$ table. So that empty 100 table isn't ever going to become a 5 dollar table, because someone at some point decided it will be played and it will be used for enough time to make it worthwhile.

Craps should make more than blackjack and comparing the 2 as far as revenue is completely silly. Starting off, they can hold nearly double the number of people of a black jack table, and you can have more than one base bet going at a time. As a direct result this should absolutely generate more money for the casino. Also, the numbers show craps at nearly 4 times BJ, however those are gross numbers and craps tables have more than 4x the expenses of a BJ table too. (3 dealers and a box-man) Also, this survey is useless for the discussion because this is among all tables and rates, not just 5 dollar tables which is the essence of this discussion and doesn't factor in any type of expenses. And in an average, you can have a losing table and still have a positive average.

Casinos can't operate in "general rules", they have to always trust the math over everything else, and the math shows a straight up $5 dollar 3-2 table is always a losing proposition for the casino. Most $10 black jack tables are too. The casino knows they have to offer it, but certainly would rather off the other games instead. Since we aren't looking at it in a vacuum, here is the true cost breakdown of having a full 5 dollar table for a single 8 hour shift in the casino, assuming everyone flat bets, and (accounting for bad players) a very generous 2% hold. (Mind you casinos don't care if you know how to play or not, they consider that game a 1% hold). We will exclude side bets for the moment since they aren't mandatory and vary in house edge.

7 players at a table non-stop for a full 8 hours exclusive of fills, card changes, spills, shuffler malfunctions and all the other delays in a typical 8 hour shift.

An average of 52 hands, per player per hour is 364 hands per table per hour and 2912 hands in 8 hours. That's 14,560 in play over the course of an 8 hour shift (for comparison a shingle player on a 100 table for 1 hour should have about 20900 in play in that hour).

In an 8 hour shift before expenses that table should bring in 291.20 with a 2% hold. (True number is 145.60)
Now costs of that table, (pay rates based on job postings and experience)
10/hr dealer (9 hours since the dealer gets breaks and others have to fill in) 90 dollars
20/hr pit boss (9 hours divided by 6 since they usually run 6 tables) 30 dollars
Assume an additional 30 dollars in costs for floor supervisor and security for the whole shift.
So staffing the table by itself for an 8 hour shift is roughly 150 bucks
You also have to add in the cost of drinks:
Figure 7 drinks every 20 minutes for a total of 21 drinks per hour( probably slower than should be since most places usually are 15 minutes). Also figure bare minimum cost of 1$ per drink.
Total just in drinks: 168.00

There are a ton of other costs too that if you think the casino isn't thinking about, you're wrong from the cost of technicians keeping up the shufflers, to the cost of decks of cards which is about 36 decks per 8 hour shift. (2 6 deck shoes and a change at beginning middle and end of shift). Add in the cost of re-felting tables from heavy use, replacing worn chairs, replacing and upkeep of chips. All those costs get broken down to an hourly cost per table and it certainly isn't 0.

Even if they lay that cost elsewhere, a full 5 dollar table generates 291.20 when calculating double the normal hold and costs the casino 318.00 ball park. So on an 8 hour shift the casino can expect to spend 27 dollars more than that table brings in.

Craps is a different animal entirely but the numerical breakdown is not dissimilar since drink cost double dealer cost triples and box man cost is the full 20/hr . So an 8 hour shift at the table costs 270+180+30+336= 816 bucks to staff and serve a full table. A full table does about 100 rolls per hour so 600 dollars /hour (pass line bets) 4800 per 8 hour shift and since you can't play the pass line wrong let's say edge is 1% so house should bring in 480 bucks. Assume everyone also does 1 come bet and you're about even.

Since casinos can't work off of what they hope will happen (side bets, c and e, horn bets, big 6 bets, field bets, etc) they have to base their math off of only the forced bets. So as salaries and wages and costs continue to rise, so too will the table minimums. Especially on black jack.

 

Here's what I'm guessing:

Travel demand this spring/summer will reach higher than anytime in the last 10 years in Vegas. Pent up demand/some poeple with pent up money to spend.

Tables will be packed, people waiting in line. If they have a line, why wouldn't they keep the minimums the same. Or, raise them because people will be willing to play.

I would expect by late fall when we have a large vaxed population, people got their gambling fix in the summer, college football is in full swing that minimums will come down to previous norms.

Remember that casinos suffered large losses that will take years to get back. I doubt that Caears/mLife have any reason to bring minimums down. Places like Ellis, Jerry's and others that rely on locals and being a special place to visit can't afford to raise their prices and scare away their business.

On a side note:

Personally, We stay on the strip for the nice rooms. I went to Vegas for the first time in 2019. I couldn't believe how expensive everything was. I knew that this is a place for tourists and a place for places to make money off people who don't know better. More power to you if you want to pay $9 for a beer. I'll go two streets over to a bar/restaurant and get it for $4. I don't understand the appeal of the strip other than convenience. Sure, there are some good shows, but I can go to the shows if I want and not get stuck on the strip. We stay at Luxor/MB on the south end to avoid all the craziness midstrip. If we want to see a show at the Mirage, we'll drive/walk and then come back.

We play downtown and off-strip because we get better odds and our play lasts longer. I don't need all the glitz and glam. Cosmo, Bellagio and Caesars do nothing for me. What the chandelier looks like, the carpet, how nice the chairs are don't factor into my gaming. GG used to be my favorite place. But it looks like Derek Stevens is trying to raise the calibur of his properties. I haven't seen GG at 5 since Jan 2020. It was 10 or even 15 (I played cheaper at Bally's that day, we were eating there). I'll walk a few paces to Binions and play $5. I don't have any loyalty. I'm going to play where I'm treated well and I can afford to game.

Even better, we always rent a car so we can drive around, or go to Zion National Park or be free. We spend more time at Cannery, South Point and Jerry's than we do anywhere else during our trip. Things are cheaper, the gaming is better and I don't have to play $15 craps.

 

Well I generally agree with your post. Good for you that you are voting with your feet, going where you are treated best and getting good value. That's all fantasctic.

I'd argue though that for a lot of people (me included) the atmosphere of a place is actually a big factor. For me to some degree that is just what makes Vegas Vegas, it adds to the excitement, entertainment etc. I know everything on the strip is more expensive (including the gambling) but a lot of the time I'd still rather play at the Cosmo or the Wynn and pay the price. But to each their own, for sure.

 

sitting at a dull table, or an empty table, is only entertaining when you're winning. if the vibe/crowd is right, i can still have enjoy myself even when breaking even or even losing.

i enjoy the crowd and vibe more on the strip, so i prefer to play there. sometimes that means that i need to play tables that have shitty rules. i don't like it. i try to avoid it. but i'm not going to head off to some dusty old locals place just because it has good rules at low minimums. i'm also not going to go play a carny game on the strip that has an even greater house edge than 6:5 out of protest. that makes little sense to me. i've tried getting into VP but it just doesn't have the same rush. i'll give it another shot but it's not the same.

so i'm stuck and it sucks. i'll raise my displeasure when i'm there, and i'll spend much of the day searching around for better rules - but ultimately my trip is about personal enjoyment and fun and that is what i'm going to prioritize.

 

I understand the desire for the low table limitts. However, I do not think they will come back on the strip and there will still be higher limits Downtown. As a BJ player, I think some of the worst experiences I had at BJ were at low limit tables. I remember on one my first trips people were sweating their loses, including yelling and cursing at a dealer, on a $3 table. I have seen similar things on a $5 table. It is just not fun.

 

Yeah, 20 years ago I always rented a car and hit the locals places, travelling from Fiesra on Rancho Drive to what is now Fissta Henderson (think both are closed since covid). But that's not for me anymore.

But the minimums and rules downtown, at least at Derek's places, do at least seem to strike a fair balance.

And while no casino downtown, with the exception of Circa, can compare from a physical perspective to the behemoths of the Strip, I wonder how much of the Strip vibe from a clientele perspective is making it's way to Fremont. That is, how many folks have felt priced out on the Strip and are making their way downtown. Before covid, the revenue numbers suggested Fremont was gaining in popularity.

In any event, it's going to be interesting to monitor the landscape from the table min perspective in the last half of the year as restrictions are loosened.

 

I get that. However, in the DC area, my closest casino is MGM National Harbor, which probably has some of the highest minimums in the country, and I've never been to a less fun place in my life! Granted, in Vegas people are on vacation and tend to be looser with their money, but I dont want to see the Strip turn into that kind of environment.

Again, I think balance would be good. Of course people (me included lol) are going to complain about higher minimums than in the past, but I dont see why all of the Strip casinos cant be offering at least $15 3:2 at many of their tables. Maybe they will post-covid....we'll see.

 

Only if one assumes that they will never bet more than $5 on anything...never press a place bet...never take odds... never bet anything in the center.

The "$5 craps player" is actually more like a $25 (per roll) craps player. Now, to be fair, the $25 player is also betting way more than $25 per roll, but probably not as much of an increase as the $5 player.
Example: The $5 player may very well be place betting $12 on the 6/8 and $10 on the 5/9. The $25 player is likely place betting only $30 on the 6/8 and $25 on 5/9.

The $5 player is betting 240% of the minimum on the 6/8. The $25 is betting 120% of the minimum on the 6/8.

 

yea it seems very petty. i get they need to make up cash from time lost but it's not as if 3:2 was pervasive. it was a few tables here and a few tables there and most of them were away from the party pits and whatnot in hidden corners. frankly it was mostly those of us who were seeking out better rules at these tables - as the ones that didn't know better just sat down at the cheapest table with the dancing girls behind them (which, ya know, can't blame them for wanting to enjoy the view).

 

I too prefer to play and stay on the Strip. I'll spend one evening per trip downtown at the most. Other than that, I'll lean my play towards whatever Strip casino offers the best rules. Last trip, which admittedly was a few years ago, I played a lot more blackjack at TI and Cromwell. If they all opt for 6:5 in the future, so be it. But if one place sees an opportunity in the market to keep low-limit 3:2, there's some market share that will gravitate their way.

 

I didn't mean for my prediction post to become personal. Just fustrated that Vegas has become like going to Disney. Disney has priced out the lower to middle income families going to the park. 10 years ago you could take the kids to the park for 4 days and not break the bank. Now it's crazy expensive to do 4 days, meals, hotel and whatnot. Vegas, at least the strip, has become that way as well. Everything is expensive. And with tables going up, they are pushing more people away to downtown, off strip, Laughlin, etc.

There will always be tourists and always people willing to pay it. I just know where I sit.

 

Now I could roll out my whole economic theory here about inflation, wealth inequality etc etc
But this is probably not the right place... it is frustrating yes.

 

I'm very crurious about your theory.

 

I want to come back, but I’ll probably be forgoing it until green chip players can find 3:2. At some point when capacity restrictions are lifted and more tables are open, I’m hopeful the mins will reflect the rules. Better stated, 6:5 for $10 tables won’t leave, but for $25 tables and up is should, otherwise I’ll just gamble elsewhere.

 

@Necrochaos and @LB9 I understand and agree with you on both fronts. The strip is becoming very expensive (my budget for dinners on our upcoming trip is $150 per person which isn't even that crazy), but nothing will change until it has to. As long as Vegas has the club goers, the convention attendees, and the "non-gambling" tourists. People who care about value and fair rules will be pushed off the strip. The problem is that right now the casinos simply don't care. However, should things change, then I can see things returning to the way the gambler wants. It's honestly I think the reason why you can easily find decent rules, lower limits, fairer pay-tables, and decent prices for food and drink in places like Atlantic City. They don't get much in the way of frivolous spendered and "business" travel, so they ensure that the gamblers have a reason to return.