Diamond Requirements for 2019

500k * 0.6% = 3k theo loss. with a standard deviation of (32*500*4.5)=$72,000 . meaning you have about a 3% chance to swing six figures into the red

 

I don’t agree with your math. How can you lose 7 figures (over a million) with only $500k coin in.

 

If they raise diamond to 25k then I'm going the Founder's Card route or just replacing CET with Cosmo. It's all about the line cutting and resort fee waivers.

 

Lol you can't.

Using the normal distribution to predict results is pretty inaccurate in smaller samples of video poker play.

But he also did the math wrong (edit: now fixed). He forgot to take the square root of the JoB variance of 20 (19.5 is closer). Standard Deviation is the square root of variance.

SD for 1000 hands of $500 JoB is

Sqrt(Hands)*Sqrt(Variance)*Bet Size

Sqrt(1000)*Sqrt(19.5)*$500 = $69,821 per standard deviation

-2 SDs (2.5% likely) is 2 x $69,821 = $139,642 below theoretical loss

The theoretical loss is $500k x 0.46% = $2300

But realistically, there is no way you lose $141,942 or more 2.5% of the time in 1000 hands. That's only a 71.42% return! We must remember of that most of 9/6 JoB's variance/standard deviation is tied up in that dreamy $400,000 Royal Flush.

Using SDs only lead to decent estimates in VP when gigantic samples are tested thanks to the "law of large numbers".

 

eekk your right, redid the math. and fixed above post

 

Getting back to the question from the OP, if it does happen it would seem that it would be next year's requirement to keep diamond for 2020.

Last year when they changed the diamond lounge requirement, they posted it pretty late in the year (I think Oct??) and then had some quicker paths to hit 25k before the end of the year. And then, probably after more people complained they tiered the requirement over this past year.

There hasn't been anything from CET about any changes. Just some rumours and comments from some staff at a non-vegas casino.

 

using a markov chain would have been the most accurate... but with such a small sample size approximations are probably fine when it comes to predictions

 

You’d be better off to play the $1 100-play 7/5 Bonus Poker. 2% edge game, but decent enough theo and can get to LongTerm Quick.
Just be prepared to put $10k into that machine.
Each $500 spin would earn you 50 TC.
100 “spins” would be the max daily TC bonus (5000 to get 10,000)
With $10k you’d get a guaranteed 20 spins, but I’d say they probably wouldn’t be all losing...but just remember if you get dealt trips+, it’s a hand-pay, with forced auto-tax.
Do that one a month.

 

Thanks for the clarification. I agree that VP results don’t follow the normal curve very well due to the royal flush payout. When I do my analysis, I like the separate the royal flush odds (which is a binomial distribution) from the non-royal results (of which a normal distribution fits better). When I track my results, I can compare my “royal flush” luck to my overall returns. I hope that makes sense.

 

Do it at CaesarsWindsor. Maybe handpay but no tax and $1usd = $1.26cad && 1TC in CA = 1 TC in US

 

The normal distribution overestimates losses pretty badly for just 1000 hands. Random simulation does a better job if you have a program that can do it. I am not even sure a 6 digit loss is a 1 in 10k occurrence. I'm gonna run 10k 1000-hand sims and see what I can find. Lol

 

Yeah, if you were going to estimate results using the normal distribution, this is a much better idea.

 

Ok, since I am stupidly curious about things like this.

The normal distribution estimates a loss of $100k or more at 1000 hands of $500 9/6 JoB to be 8.08% (1.40 SDs below the mean).

50,000 sims of 1000 hands only saw a loss of $100k or more only 0.07% of the time (35 times of 50,000).

So for a small sample of hands, the normal distribution can be significantly off.

On the other end of the coin, 14 lucky bastards (0.028%) got 2 Royals in 1000 hands. And one super lucky bastard got 3.

Other notable stats:
Avg loss: $2682
Median loss: $13000
Worst loss: -$138,500
1st quarter loss: $3300
3rd quarter win: $9000
Best Win: $1,193,000

Winner: 34.63%
Lose more than $25k: 34.75%
Sims with a Royal: 2.424%
Sims that have no Royal, no SF and below average number of quads: 50.63%

 

Thanks for acknowledging me

 

This is like 2 threads in one: the op's original thread, and a an "Attaining CET 7 Stars With Least Amount Of Theoretical Risk" thread.

I'm going back to the op's original thread starter. With the change in Diamond Lounge requirement, my thoughts at the beginning of 2018 is that the requirements for Diamond would go to 25,000 in 2019.

But then, enough complaints over the late year announcement of 25,000 for DL access convinced CET to extend access for all Diamonds to March 31, while also giving them continued DL access by hitting TC goals each quarter. And now everyone knew that 25,000 tc's would be required for DL access in 2019. And everyone had a year to earn it AND keep DL access while they earned it.

For 2017, it took CET and Founder's Card a couple of months before they announced they were renewing their agreement. For 2018, they announced it right away. CET continues to do the tier match too. Both of these things must be working revenue-wise for CET and not just for bumping up TR enrollment numbers.

The last thing CET wants to do is piss-off people and lose some new found revenue(let alone pissing off their loyal players)by announcing this late in the year that it will now take 25,000 tc's to remain Diamond and retain all Diamond benefits after January 31, 2019. It's obvious the DL tc requirement change was a fiasco. A complete tier requirement change this late in the game would be a disaster.

There is talk of rebranding Total Rewards into Caesars Rewards, or something with "Caesars" in the name. A rebrand could be bring new levels with new requirements. God knows they have to do something to make Platinum worth more. And they certainly need at least one level between Diamond and 7 Stars. Not to mention that no level lost more benefits than 7 Stars.

What wouldn't surprise me is if on February 1, 2019, CET announces the all new Caesars Rewards, and that Diamond, or the equivalent tier and benefits, will take earning 25,000 tc's before January 1, 2020 in order to keep those benefits past January 31, 2020.

 

having plat is almost the same as not having status at all.

they really need more teirs

plat should be like 10k TC. diamond should be like 50k, they should have something else at like 150k and then 7* should be at like 500k

 

I agree. Let’s be honest - there are way too many diamond players. Let’s go 50k diamond , 150k aspirations and 250k seven stars.

 

Or God forbid, they could stop doing all these stupid bonuses.

But they probably work well on the math weaklings.

 

Which bonuses are you referring to? The daily bonuses make some sense. Someone who plays X in one day is worth more to them than someone who plays X spread over 10 days.

 

Is that necessarily true? I know the predominant model values ADT but if someone comes in on 1 day and plays $10000 coin-in over 5 hours how are they worth more to the Casino than someone who comes in for 30 mins a day for 10 days and plays $1000 coin-in/day? They occupy a machine for the same total length of time, provide the same amount of profit to the Casino on average and if they drink at the same rate then they consume the same amount of free booze. If there isn't some sort of comp they are getting 10 times compared to 1 time, then aren't they in reality each worth exactly the same to the Casino?
Isn't the only real difference between the 2 instances above 10 times the wear on the carpet and the boomgate?