Video Poker Specific Coin-in with Limited Bankroll: What to do?

It is possible that is true. I read the "$900 total to put in $24k" part in a way that meant getting $8000 in every 24hr period was not a requirement.

Although even if the requirement is 8k per day, the only way to succeed is to make sure 8k is achieved the first day. If you hit 7k and quit, what would be the point of playing the next 2 days.


I'm really looking forward to the results. I always have that goal to start off a trip well so then I can play on the casinos money for a few days. Sadly this doesn't seem to happen more often than 10% of the time for me.

 

Should have been more clear.. That's what I meant.
I have a total bankroll of $900, with a loss limit of $300 per day.
ie: I might at some point be down $400 on day1, but will expect to be within $0-$300 loss loss in the end.
Like I said, my play for 2013 was $10k per month, and never did I lose more than $300 in a session. Hell, once, we went big and put in $40k in one day and only lost $500 (lucky because we got a quad early on)

 

If you remove the daily loss limit and just assume a $900 bankroll for the trip then your chances are:

$1 JOB, single line, 4800 hands, 42% risk of ruin, 25% chance of breaking even or winning

Put it this way, assuming you play perfectly (or close to it), and you don't hit a royal or straight flush you will need about 11 quads and you should make it.

 

This is close to the numbers I got.

$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 10000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.4560956
SD 4.4175419
Sim Ruin % 42.9900000
Sim Ruin w/no Royal % 47.3353887
Sim. Ruin no royals and <10 Quads 82.4259582
% of Royalless Sims 90.8200000
% of Royaless Sims and <10 Quads 48.0600000

$`Win/Loss Summary (from $900 Bankroll)
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0 0.0 305.0 793.9 901.2 13180.0

$`Summary of Play length
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
591 3197 4800 4003 4800 4800

$`Summary of Royals
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0965 0.0000 3.0000

$`Summary of Quads
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.000 6.000 10.000 9.456 13.000 24.000

$`BR w/o RF`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
0.0 0.0 152.5 400.4 725.0 2505.0 918.0

$`BR w/o RF & <10 quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
0.0 0.0 0.0 115.2 0.0 1745.0 6424.0


But if you buckle down and grind quarters for a long session each day, success is a lot more likely. Assuming they have 9/6 for quarters, not exactly sure where Tim is trying to pull this off.

$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 5000.0000000
BuyIn 1.0000000
ROI % -0.4560956
SD 4.4175419
Sim Ruin % 15.1600000
Sim Ruin w/no Royal % 23.8664987
Sim. Ruin no royals and <39 Quads 77.0886076
% of Royalless Sims 63.5200000
% of Royaless Sims and <39 Quads 21.0400000

$`Win/Loss Summary (from $900 Bankroll)`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0 207.2 570.0 801.5 1273.0 4829.0

$`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
6285 19200 19200 18600 19200 19200

$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4684 1.0000 4.0000

$`Summary of Quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
9.00 40.00 45.00 43.84 49.00 70.00

$`BR w/o RF`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
0.00 38.75 296.20 332.40 530.30 1480.00 1824.00

$`BR w/o RF & <39 quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
0.00 0.00 0.00 81.52 124.40 812.50 4429.00

And considering Tim's signature says MSS, you'll be able to get $2 scratchoff for every quad you hit if you are playing there. That significantly helps at the quarter level, dropping your "risk of ruin" from 15.2% to 10.9%. This sim assumes all scratchoffs are $2 to be conservative.

$`Ruin/Win Results`
Results
Sims 5000.00000000
BuyIn 1.00000000
ROI % -0.07808825
SD 4.43871471
Sim Ruin % 10.92000000
Sim Ruin w/no Royal % 17.58454106
Sim. Ruin no royals and <39 Quads 67.10144928
% of Royalless Sims 62.10000000
% of Royaless Sims and <39 Quads 19.02000000

$`Win/Loss Summary (from $900 Bankroll)`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
-1.0 307.7 681.2 887.2 1361.0 5032.0

$`Summary of Play length`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
6449 19200 19200 18760 19200 19200

$`Summary of Royals`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.4754 1.0000 4.0000

$`Summary of Quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
4.00 40.00 45.00 44.36 50.00 69.00

$`BR w/o RF`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-1.0 150.8 391.5 411.6 630.5 1577.0 1895.0

$`BR w/o RF & <39 quads`
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 123.4 213.0 787.8 4463.0

And would 10-play 7/5 Bonus w/QQ with dimes really be your next best option? They don't offer the same thing for nickels? Volume is one of the most important things to be able succeed on getting $24k coin-in on only $900. Do you have a time constraint for this goal?

 

Time is not really a constraint... I may just play 50c denim, or 25c...
I figure, with dollars I could knock it out in like 3 hours, so 6 hours playing 50c denim...probably be a better bet, since it'd not leave me bored...

 

Boredom aside, it sounds like you would have an 85% chance of reaching your goal on quarters versus 52% on dollars...which do you prefer?

tringlomane, which software are you using?

 

You mean he's not using pen and paper?



Nothing to add other than I'm glad Tim asked the question. The resulting conversation is fascinating!

Carry on

 

+1! That sounds like exactly what I'm looking for to get an answer to my similar question.
I want to take a shot at a big win with a wholly inadequate bankroll for extended play. What I'm trying to find out is how unlikely I am to win x amount on y number of hands. Would it be better to have fewer hands on a higher denomination, or more hands at a lower one?

Great thread guys.

 

I'll give you a tip...if you've never been a Club Palms (Palms Casino) member (or your wife/gf hasn't) GO OVER THERE
They're still doing the $1000 loss rebate...If you can tie up $500 for a few months then it's definitely the way to go...
Wife and I did it (on her card; cuz I'd already had one) last year...we put $1000 in a $5 9/6 DDB machine...NO QUADS! But we did cycle through $15k coin-in..if we'd of hit a quad we'd of course quit ($1250/$2000/$4000/$10k)

Also, like Doug said..I'll probably do 5c 10-play BP-QQ...should take me around 6 hours

 

Or maybe even nickels........

 

There is no basis for this expectation. Once you are down $400, there is more of a chance that you end up down $600 than you end up down $200. You are playing a machine, while although good, still has a negative expectation.

There are a couple of good responses here with people who have given you figures on the risk of ruin, which is very high for your bankroll/goals.

 

If you plan on doing this promotion at the Palms go to the players club first and make sure the machines you are playing are eligible for this promotion. Note also that the Palms has been tightening things up, and just because a machine was eligible in the past does not mean it will still be eligible today. For most promotions, the Palms does exclude their best machines. If the best machines are excluded and you have to play lesser machines, it would significantly change all the math posted here.

 

Apparently I'm just extremely lucky, for putting in so many $10k sessions and losing less than $300 AND not hitting a royal...

 

A code in R: http://www.r-project.org/

I found the code on 2+2 poker which initially simulated your "risk of ruin" for the WSOP main event. I modified to simulate single-line video poker games. Unfortunately, the way it simulates it takes input data from a video poker calculator like the one found here: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/ , and as a result, it can't do multi-line games. But I really never play multi-line for significant money, so it generally works for me.

People who have messed around with programming before might be able to use it without a lot of effort, but it's not very user friendly as is. I have a couple of spots for variables which I periodically recode, based on what I want to look for in the simulation. In this case, it was keeping track of simulations that didn't have a Royal, and simulations where there was neither a Royal and a quad was less frequent than 1 in 500 hands (average is 1 in ~423).

A good commercial simulator would be much easier to use and probably more powerful. But I'm not sure what the best options for those are since I am cheap. I am pretty sure "VP for Winners" can do it, but I have no idea how good it is.

Speaking of simulators...maybe kiwi can share how he got these numbers. Maybe he is using a good commercial program for this, or he put in a better effort of a code than I did...

And the results of this statement are important to note for Tim too. Basically the lower return and higher variance of 7/5 BP QQ mostly negates the benefit of playing at lower denominations with a multi-hand game.

Well, that example is a 97%+ return. And since you are often playing 8/5 bonus, the return when never hitting a royal in a session will be closer to 97.2% than the expected 99.17% long term return, and that's with no errors of course. I remember either you or your lady (maybe both?) made a Royal with AT suited last year... So if you are succeeding a lot more than 50% of the time in this general situation, then yeah, it's pretty lucky. I'd personally rather be lucky though.

 

Yikes, that was a bit more complicated than I hoped, but thanks for posting!