What your comps really cost you?? - Comps True Comparison

And that's why I go to Vegas instead of Disney, Vegas Comps and I have a chance to win money to boot. Disney, the experience is great but it's $$$$$$$$$.

 

Exactly. We've all been "there" one way or another where we said, Hey this can't lose/stop! I did when I was 21 and was hitting a blackjack machine everyday after work. Hey, low house edge...took multiple $20-100 winning sessions. Then it was 2 or 3 losing sessions in a row...then more...then tilted and grew to $1,000s in losses.

 

For me - I am going to gamble anyway. Do I get carried away time to time? Sure, who doesn't. Vegas is the perfect destination, we enjoy other places too (Mexico, Caribbean) but Vegas is that perfect 3 day giveaway. Sometimes you win, too! Which makes it even more fun. But ultimately my near 20 trips have not cost me more than 30K, so 1,500 a trip(and that includes gambling, airfare, cash expenses, etc etc)---and I've gotten way more enjoyment out of it that a price tag of 30K carries.

 

The house has the edge each time a slot arm is pulled, a card is dealt or dice is thrown.. It’s already built in. You play craps.. That dice lands on a 6... You max out the odds 5x pass bet.. for easy math let’s say odds bet is 100.. You hit the casino pays 120.. The “true” odds are closer to 6.3 to 1. Thus you just lost out on 530 dollars. No way over the long term can anyone over come that edge.. I think everyone here is glad you win. At least I know I’m.. But this forum in my experience is to help all tips, tricks and great opinions.. Your being a little disingenuous when claiming you can lower the house edge with money management. But heck if it’s working for you.. Ride that dragon.. Just don’t be surprised when it crashes

 

I'm very confused over this, the true odds of rolling a 6 or losing are 6:5. You cant factor in the odds of rolling any non losing number into the equation because they don't actually take your money if you roll any number other than a 7. You're not wrong that if you want to factor in the odds of winning vs nothing and losing your number is right, but why would the casino pay you when you don't lose or win. So in no logical world would you say you lost 530 dollars.

Where you do lose is on the pass line which you didn't even factor in. 20 dollar passline and 100 dollar odds is 120 total wagered. True odds for the 6 should be 6:5 on all of this and so you should make 144, instead you will get 140. So you lose out on 4 dollars.

I believe the point @Hawkestie is trying to make is that if you play a game with a very low house edge built in like craps (Pass line in Craps by itself has a 1.43% edge, however if you take the odds as you can, you can reduce the edge further: .85% for 1x .61% on 2x .33% on 5x .18% for 10 x.021% for 100x odds) where money management comes into play is in both having the discipline to only play those bets. No hard ways / c and e/ worlds/ hops/ horns/ buys/ places etc. And walk away when you get a win, which you should be able to do more consistently. The mitigating factor in all of this is variance and money management should prevent you from really chasing a bad run of variance.

I use money management on games where the house has much bigger edges (3-5% hold video poker and 10-20% hold slots) and it works well for me too. I bank winning sessions and minimize the bleeding on losing ones and can usually stay within a few hundred dollars of my base (plus or minus)

 

Alexm: You got to the math before I did . I was trying to figure out how I lost out on $530 when I only bet $120. Glad you were able to explain the $530 in your first paragraph so I at least was able to see how that was even computed.

Money management and discipline is the way to keep the negative expectation at a minimum. Learning to walk away is critical as well. Can't tell you how many times at the craps table I see people keep pounding the pass line when the 7 keeps coming up. Either switch to the Don't until is changes or walk away. Stubbornness will consistently lead to losses!

 

6/5 pay for odds bet isn’t “true odds” no where close..

Money management means nothing.. Zero zilch nada..

If you play a game with a negative exception each and every pull, card flip or dice throw is a loser long term and can’t be beat.. Can your bankroll stretch your play longer absolutely.. Yet you will still be a loser in the long term.. If you believe in money management... You wouldn’t be at a casino to begin with..

 

Another fallacy.. The dice have zero idea if 100 7s just rolled in a row.. Or it’s been 2 hours since the last 7 out.. Best way to win in casino don’t play..

 

My math was wrong thanks for the correct.. Odds of rolling a 6 are 5 to1 not 6 to 1..
The casino pays you 6/5..

 

Well in my defense I did say "keep the negative expectation to a minimum". Of course any casino game is a negative expectation mathematically, and anyone that goes in one should be well aware of that. They don't build those wagering palaces on winners as the old saying goes. However, my experience after many years, (and from looking at your user icon you have many years experience as well), of casino trips leads me to believe, that while the casino is playing on the long term mathematical probabilities, and are assured of winning, I am facing short term statistical variation in whether I win or lose on a particular trip. Thus if I can identify when the dice are or are not working in my favor, i.e. a hot or cold situation, I am much more likely to win or not lose as much during my trip. To use your example, of the dice not knowing that the past 100 rolls were a 7, and by the way I agree with that, after around 5 of those 7's I would have either quit or switched to the don't to see how things went on that side of the bet.

To me it always seems to come down to whether I am playing the long term math or the short term variance. I fall on the latter as I don't want to think about when the former is going to stop for me

Oh, and you are absolutely right, best way to win is not to ever go in a casino. However, since that ship has long ago sailed for me, I'm just trying to have the best time that I can when I am there!

Good Luck!

 

Maybe we have different definitions of money management. Also we may have different definitions of long term. Casino hold is not instant and it is not ever guaranteed to apply to you. Casino hold works long term because of just how much a machine gets played. Long term to me is 1,000s of hours possibly even tens of thousands of hours. That's what the casino is counting on. If casino hold was instant and applied evenly it wouldn't be called gambling. It would mean on a 1.00 slot spin with a 20% hold I would only ever get back 80 cents. Never more, never less. The gambling aspect is that you could lose 100% of that dollar, some other percentage of that dollar or, you could win and get back more than a dollar. Money management is about making sure your bankroll lasts for as much time as you would like it to. There is no rational line of thought to say those who believe in money management wouldn't be in a casino.

Also your first point is logistically impossible. Every single spin can not be a loser individually, some have to be winners and because of that some people will win. Long term the casino gets it's piece. Short term, variance and volatility matter far more than house edge. You could lose 100% of your bet in one roll of the dice, but the math says you shouldn't, so do I go to the casino and say I wagered 100 dollars but the game only has a 1.43% hold so I would like 98.57 back now. No, just like if I bet 100 and win 100 for a total of 200 the casino doesn't say sorry you were supposed to lose $1.43 so we want 101.43 back. Long term for the purposes of casino math is far more hours than the degenerate gambler would likely play in 2 lifetimes. It's why they don't sweat it when someone hits megabucks for 20+million. It's actually why the celebrate it.

I'm not sure where you find a fallacy since he was talking more about discipline and money management. Variance and volatility make up for the dice not having memory. Your point of the dice not knowing what was last rolled is true and if you go 2 hours without a 7 the casino is taking a hit on that table, however the law of large numbers says that at some point the table with Point Seven Out for 2 hours as well and the money will be recouped along with an additional 1.43%

Also your last line is the biggest fallacy possible, and baffling from someone with 300+ trips to LV even if you don't gamble. You physically can not win (defined as profit) if you do not play. If you walk in with 100 and walk out with 100 you have not won. Nor have you lost. It's just like placing the number 6 letting a roll of 5 come by and then taking your money back. You didn't win, you simply didn't lose

I am amazed that you singled out the dumbest thing you said from your first post and doubled down on it. Mind boggling how you can't grasp such a basic concept, but again, you fail to factor in the push to your math so I will explain one more time.

You win with a 6, you lose with a 7, and with any other number nothing happens to your money. The odds of rolling a 6 vs a 7 (which is the only factor that matters) is 6:5 against so if that happens the casino pays you 6 dollars for every 5 your bet. This isn't roulette where any number besides yours makes you lose.

I have to assume that since you have a bunch of posts here, you're not a troll, and maybe just lack the basic structure of how craps works.

 

You hit the nail on the head so well here. Money management and discipline can help you avoid a potentially long swing of negative variance, thus minimizing your losses, thereby giving you an easier opportunity to turn a profit. However legion's point is well stated in that you could get burned by walking away only to have the dice turn the other way minutes later. The dice don't know and we can't either, so we control the controllable (bet size, bankroll, time on device, game choice) and leave the rest to chance.

 

Your experience, as has been repeated ad nauseum, is simply a sample size issue that will always end up beating you in the long run. You just haven't played enough sessions. The fact is, the house still has an edge. You cannot beat the math of a house edge unless you're doing something to cheat to take the house edge away. You're not backing any of your arguments with any empirical evidence of a system that's proven to beat the house edge. You just keep saying that you've been fortunate enough to be in the black. That's not a compelling argument.

You can keep talking about your experiences, but I can talk about mine too. You said you've been up on 7 of your last 10 trips in craps, and quit while ahead. Well I've been on a huge downswing in craps the last few years and I guarantee you that on none my last 10 trips was I ever up in craps after my first 30 minutes of play or at any point of the entire trip. So how would your great money management system have worked for me in that case if I was never ahead and able to quit? I generally play 10x odds on a $5 passline bet downtown and only play come bets w/odds otherwise. I'll occasionally play the don't pass and don't come bets as well. No center bets and I don't place numbers, either. So yeah, I play craps in a manner which is the lowest house edge possible outside of playing a game with even more odds and no money management system could have made me a profitable player over the sample size as yours.

Unless you specifically can point out a way that you're beating the math, then your "system" is nothing more than luck, or the absence of a large enough sample size. With that said, you could play 10 times a year for the next 20 years and still end up ahead if you're playing a low enough house edge style of play. That doesn't mean you've beaten the system though, it just means the house edge is low enough that you have been lucky enough to overcome it for a long time. The bigger the house edge, the faster the sample size will catch up to you.

A good example of this is that I'm a lifetime winning player in blackjack. That doesn't mean I think I've found a system that beats the house, though. I understand math.

 

Each for of the dice is Independent of the last roll.. The math says when you let go of those dice there is 16.67% chance a seven is coming.. I’m thinking your trolling me.. You actually think you can beat a negative expectation game.. With money management.. I can’t seem to wrap my head around it..

 

@MiamiDave great post

 

Okay, I'm going to try again. I don't believe Alexm or myself has ever denied the negative expectation of craps or any game in a casino. I specially said so in my post. I also understand the math. I counted cards in blackjack for years until it just became unwinnable with the games offered now, so believe me when I say that I understand the math. However, I also understand statistical math and standard deviation variance.

All we said was that money management and playing with discipline will help ameliorate your short term losses, increase your wins when they come around, and as this thread was originally about, even increase your comps.

And yes you can have long periods of losses even when you do have the advantage, much less when you are in a negative expectation game (the most frustrating part of card counting). That is part of the short term variance that we all experience.

I would argue that we as humans LIVE in the short term when it comes to the mathematics of gambling. Very few of us, during our lifetime, play enough to enter the realm of long term math. The casino, with their constant play 24/7/365 are playing the long term, we are playing short term, whether it be over a single trip, years or our lifetime. Thus we are subject to to the crazy vicissitudes of standard deviation.

So if you don't overplay your bankroll (money management). go on tilt when losing, change strategy when conditions warrant it, (i.e switch from pass to don't or bet less when the table is cold, or press your bets when the table is hitting) you have a far better chance, (although granted still a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION game) of a better outcome. (This would be the discipline part).

Also, yes, each roll of the dice is independent, and they do not have a memory. However, my experience is those suckers sure can land on the 7 in waves .

Great discussion, thanks to all, and good rolling to all as well!

 

I was with you on the whole post, except:

“change strategy when conditions warrant it, (i.e switch from pass to don't or bet less when the table is cold, or press your bets when the table is hitting)”

The only way strategy changes affect you is if you’re playing in a way that stretches your bankroll more or less, or you’re moving your bets to higher or lower house edges. Other than a nominal amount of HE difference, going from pass to don’t pass randomly between shooters or even between points, doesn’t affect you at all. You’re just as likely to get it right as you are to get it wrong.

It’s the same thing with playing blackjack and a person next to you plays terribly. You’re going to remember all the times you lose when they play bad but for some reason nobody seems to come around talking about how great it was when they won a bunch of money when the player to their right kept hitting on 14 against a dealer 6.

Good post overall. I don’t think anyone would argue that a good money management system is not beneficial. It’s definitely important in reducing overall risk of ruin and self control is important in mitigating poor betting habits. Had he not strongly stated that he’s a winning player as if he has a system that beats the house edge, people wouldn’t be going after him so hard. Had he instead said “I play a very low house edge game style coupled with a strong money management system, and as a result I’ve been fortunate to stay on the profitable side of variance for an extended period of time, but I recognize that it’s going to ultimately catch up with me some day because math always does,” then the whole conversation would be a lot different.

 

Comps are just a bonus. I would spend all that money gambling anyways. So getting a free room and some dinners is great, but its not the reason I go to Vegas.

 

Anyone can gamble anywhere. It’s the comps that tip the scales for me to travel to Vegas.

As far as the money management argument. If it makes you feel better by limiting your losses then use it. But when you throw gambling into the mix....house USUALLY wins....

 

Agreed. I love to gamble, and I can and occasionally do gamble at local casinos in Oklahoma, but I try to limit that because frankly they have nothing else to offer. So for me, I love Vegas because it has everything my wife and I need for an awesome vacation, world class entertainment, luxury hotels, amazing restaurants, shopping, etc, and I’m gonna play and usually lose money anyways, so getting something back for it is still a better value than blowing it at my local casino and getting a Philly cheesesteak comped.