Wynn stock

Stock ended up around 18% - around $160K+ made today on the stock . On to next Q. Best wishes to all in your investment in the stocks or casino slots.

 

whoa that's a sweet hit dude!! It's going to be hard for me to outdo that kind of profit haha

 

WYNN hitting 98's after hours on bad numbers. Think she revisits the 70's-80's? Trading around 9x forward p/e.

 

I think we're going to see a pretty good rebound around 10-noon.

 

Ok you got your pullback. Good luck.

 

I gotta read the conference call transcript. From what I heard on TV, the CEO said Macau AND Vegas were soft (not withstanding the Macau numbers that came out last week) and that he wasn't expecting a rapid change. It settled in at $99.50 last night. I wouldn't be surprise to see it drift back to the lower 90's.

Other than the scalp a couple of weeks ago, the only other time I traded WYNN was a few years ago after they reported earnings and it tanked to the mid-90's. I read the transcript and Steve said it was because their bacc hold for the Q was only 18% vs a normal # in the mid-20's. You would think people would realize the impact of that, but they didn't. So I scooped some at $95 and rode it to the low $150s (on the way to $200+) .

Doesn't sound like there will be anything like that in the call this time, but I'm gonna check anyway. Steve was a master of the earnings call, even if people didn't always hear the implications of what he said. This new CEO, not so much, seems like.

 

Looks like 13 - 14% drop in pre-market. May move up but the loss of Steve to WYNN operations is becoming apparent as day go by.

* Edited to say day instead of days

 

It's moving up, it's all going according to my plan lol

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/steve-wynn-saved-900-million-with-well-timed-sale-of-casino-stake-1541690480


At the end of the article mentions possibility of Steve re establishing stake in the company. If it only were to happen. Do it Steve!!

 

Is he allowed to? Like will that get in the way of Encore in MA?

 

Of course he can buy back stock.

The issue is how easily can he be rehired into a management position.

 

Aside from bad numbers, they apparently announced yesterday they are nixing paradise park, and the extra hotel tower that was to go there, and are nowhere in their plans for Alon.

 

https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/wynn-resorts-scraps-lagoon-project-and-will-restore-the-wynn-las-vegas-golf-club/
Interesting.

 

Considering that many of you are posting both here and in the Paradise park thread, can we keep this one for stock only and not talk about the golf course or other plans? Thanks! It's really hard for me to index with overlap, dangit ;-)

 

If you're for sale, you might dial back the capex

 

I just read the conf call transcript. I was looking for numbers on baccarat hold.

There were two quotes:

About Macau, in talking about EBITDA: "We were happy with $409 million of EBITDA. However, we did have about $20 million of high hold in that period. But even at $390 million, it was a good quarter." That means Wynn won $20 million more than what they themselves would model for a quarter based on the amount wagered.

About Vegas: "Moving to Las Vegas, $95 million of EBITDA, not acceptable, we had $10 million on hold related..." So in Vegas they lost $10 million more than they'd expect based on the overall amount wagered.

So +20 in Macau and -10 in Vegas means a net +10 mln, on 110 million shares outstanding, that's an "extra" 9 cents a share gambling variance (ie. good luck) contributed to the bottom line. However, he was pretty clear that wagering was off at both locations. It's a simple as that.

He did say that some big players went elsewhere in Vegas (and won big, he even said if you looked at all the cos. reports, you'd be able to tell where). Wynn lives and dies by the VIP and baccarat. The time you want to buy it is when gaming revs are strong but the bacc hold was way off due to variance. That drives the stock down even though people should know better.

Unbelievably, not a single analyst asked about the Boston license. They don't have it yet. Steve sued the Mass Gaming Commission YESTERDAY to prevent the release of its investigation. That ain't gonna help. No investigation release, no decision on the license.



I hadn't read this article before, it's kind of interesting, covers the whole messy history of the Boston license including Caesars.
https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2018/10/17/steve-wynn-casino/

 

aight we so a 3% bounce back lol, 50% for my $100 Call Options, I expected more but it's profit lol

 

Profit is profit. Congratulations.

 

Interesting statement to make regarding the recessions in 2008 and 2009 by Maddox. I am referring to pretty much his last few sentences of his prepared remarks.

The algo's may have parsed the transcript and said SELL SELL SELL

From the transcript:

"However, as we've seen in the past, whether it was in 2003 with SARS and what happened at the VIP market and the recession in 2008 and 2009, in 2014, when we saw the premium in VIP market started to slow down globally, that always impacted Las Vegas as well. So until there's more clarity around what's going on in Asia in the premium business, we are remaining cautious on the baccarat market for Las Vegas going forward."

 

Good catch, I didn't see that, I knew he was pretty downbeat overall, but I was digging for the bacc specifics, because of that pop it got a week or so ago because of what were looked at as overall good Macau numbers.

Hang Seng is down 2.6% today and Wynn Macau is down another 5% today after shedding almost 10% yesterday (and Wynn US followed suit). So we may see WYNN in the mid-90's today.