ADT/Theo expert opinions

I just don't get this ADT/Theo stuff. Not sure what it is, it just doesn't compute for me. I never looked at ADT before this board, just played and took what I got for comps without a thought.

Stayed at Cosmo for 4 nights over New Years, when we got home decided to email the host what my ADT was for the trip. He wrote back that it is: Trip Theo $10K, losses $9K and coin in $87K. (I rounded the numbers)

What does this all mean?? Is this a good, bad or ugly theo in a hosts eyes?

Any ADT/Theo experts opinions would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

 

This is very good! The most important number is the theo of 10K. They should give you comps back about 40% of your theo, which is 4K. You should ask you host what percentage of your theo you used for the trip.

 

ADT is average daily theoretical loss. So your ADT is 10k (theoretical loss for your whole trip) divided by the number of days you were there (4 nights) so your ADT is either 2000 or 2500, depending on if Cosmo counts check out day or not.

10k of Theo over a four night trip is solid play, you should get around 3500 back in the form of comps. So a suite plus most if not all of your food and beverage.

Your actual loss of 9k is close to your expected loss of 10k, and the 87k coin in is the amount of money you played through the machines.

 

$10k theo you should see about $3500 in comps from the hotel. So you should have gotten your room and food taken care of no problem.

 

87K coin-in with 9K loss, that means Cosmo's slot machine pay back is (87-9)/87=89%. seems on par with other Strip properties.

 

From this data, you also ran slightly above expectation this trip.

 

Right.
10K theo means Cosmo knows their average slots pay back is (87-10)/87=88%.

 

Thank you for the quick replys.

Heres the full story.

The New Years trip was planned back in Sept with my host, he promised me a wrap around facing Bellagio. Bruno Mars concert and New Years supper at Rose Rabbit Lie came later in Nov as part of the New Years package. 2 hours before heading to the airport he calls me and tells me we got bumped out of the wrap around and is moving us to the west tower. Can't remember the name of the room, it has a full kitchen, living room and seperate bedroom. The entry is covered in mirrors which is so odd and confusing that I walked into the mirror thinking it was part of the room. Nice room, but it was no east tower wrap around.

He was off when we checked out so I left a thank you card with some money in it with another host to give to him. The host on duty was super nice that checked us out and cleared our room charges which were less than $100 as the room, concert and RRL supper were up front comps.

After I got home I sent a very nice and thankful email to him and asked if he got my envelope and for my ADT score. He responded with just that, the ADT score. No Hi, no thank you, no nothing just the adt score numbers nothing else.

Was not impressed and sent him a bit of a testy email back for not being cordial in any way shape or form. And then asked him if our play was that bad that he is not happy with us for such a cold email.

So thought I'd ask on here if my numbers where bad thinking he was pissed at me or something and also not knowing a whole lot about ADT.

Thank you for the input, now I don't feel so bad about letting him know he was rude.

I thought I had a good host at Cosmo, but I am now thinking otherwise

 

I have a few hosts between Vegas, AC, Local casinos etc..

Most of my Hosts are very short with e-mail replys
My Local host and my old PH host are/were great at always making me feel special by adding in a few extra sentances in e-maisl to make me feel like I am not just a quick task on they need to check off a to do list.

My Current host at PH replys with very short answers (and no "Hello"). I don't let it bother me too much as long as they still take care of me with on the trips.

 

Sounds like your host may be J.C. LOL! I think he is gone actually.

I will let others with more knowledge chime in on the comps. I have not been a High Roller for a few years as I cut my average bankroll back. But, when I was and would travel to Vegas ever 4-6 weeks, my host would tell me about meetings the hosts and management would have prior to big weekends (holidays, fights, etc). These meetings were to determine which players got the top level rooms. My recollection is that these meetings happened several days before the event. For you to get bumped 2 hrs prior on NYE weekend seems suspicious to me. If any big player called within a day before NYE and wanted a room, I would expect that player to be at a much higher level than a wrap around suite.

Your play is fine. Your host should acknowledge your gift.

btw, my current play is about 50% of you. My current host returns my text messages within seconds and emails are returned within a few hours and are always pleasant.

 

Way over simplified.

The payback is over a long stretch of time. Using your logic, if he had hit a few jackpots, then the payback would be negative to the casino. Those big jackpots totally mess up the percentages and make the take/hold/payback number very elusive.

Looking at it another way, he put in $9,000 and got nothing back. LOL!

 

As to no response to the "gift". The host might be covering his butt. No sense having anything in writing about receiving a gift of any kind. That should be via phone.

Personally, if I had been stiffed out of that room last minute, there would not have been any gift. And, of course, the host made out just fine with your donation to the casino.

 

It's not over simplified. it's called sampling.
Even if you include a billion people's results together, it is still sampling.

87K coin-in is ~30000 spins (assuming $3 per spin) over 4 days, that's not the same as "put in $9000 and got nothing back".

 

Why did you ask if you don't know what it means? Why do you care?

 

Why ask if I don't know what it means?? So I can learn what it does mean!
Why do I care? Because of what I've learnt from this board. I may not be getting comped what I should be, or the other side of the coin is I may be getting over comped.
How can I learn if I don't ask?

 

Absolutely right! Always ask. That's why this category is here. Every question is important. Never leave money on the table and always know exactly where you stand. Knowledge is powerful.

 

I know from past experience, my Cosmo host told me in our first conversation he would give 40% Theo to me as a slot player. Not sure if they all do/will/can, but that was our deal and I didn't have to negotiate. That said, he's so longer there, and this was before management changes.....maybe it's different now.

Presuming that is an okay number to assume, then you can say your play covered $4000. New Years is expensive, so do you recall the actual charges you did at RRL? On top of that you add on the value of the Bruno Mars tix which probably had a high value for the sold out concert, then add on the 4 hotel nights which wouldn't be at rack rate, but would still be high for the dates. At 4K, you were likely fine-

10k is a very strong theo IMO, the only issue to detract from it is how expensive New Years is!

I do think the host should have acknowledged the gift especially since you weren't able to place it in his hand- you should be able to confirm if it was received at the very least! Even if emails are monitored and he didn't want to state anything that would get him in trouble, he could have said " Thank you for the thoughtful card that you passed onto me through the other host. I appreciate you took the time to hand write a note blah blah blah."

The whole point of having a host is to give you a more personalized experience to make you feel special and keep you coming back. Crappy if they are somewhat curt with you, but at least he was able to give you some great up front comps for New Years. Good on you for letting him know how you feel!

 

Slightly above theoretical expectation.

But a lot of the theo return of slots is locked up in the top line jackpots. If you don't get lucky and either hit a jackpot or get really positive variance on non-jackpot hits, you're gonna lose 20% of your coin in.

 

Have you ever considered Decaf? Give it a shot

This, ive learned so much both by read and asking...mostly the former, but only Because someone asked just minutes before me

So keep asking

 

You might have to change your title to "PM of savviness" Hobo.

Casino Queen, great questions. Most people get LESS comps than they can, for NOT asking questions/analyzing...kudos to you for analyzing how to get more for your spend. If anyone tells you "it can't be done," it often means they haven't figure out how to do it yet.

Comps are the ONE thing in Vegas that is driven by algorithms and statistics. You can't control flops on cards. You can't control what comes up on slots...but you CAN analyze what works, and what doesn't work, on the algorithms than go into getting, or not getting, comps---while they are still mercurial, they DO have a concrete baseline, so keep asking, we learn from those questions too.