Video Poker Help Calculating Promo Value at South Point

In November, South Point is running a promo where you can redeem $25 in points for a $50 Smith's gift card (Smith's is a grocery store chain that exists where I live and I shop there regularly).

On Thanksgiving Day, South Point is offering 2x points on VP. On this day, 1,000 points will equal $6.
http://southpointcasino.com/current-promotions

At South Point, $1 coin in = 1 point

If I play quarter 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe (99.64% return), how much of an increase in EV is available on this Thanksgiving Day promo combo of a $50 gift card for $25 in points plus 2x points on VP?
I anticipate running enough coin-in to be able to redeem one gift card (~ $4,200 coin in).

Thank you for any insight you can provide.

 

It acts like quadruple points since you're getting double points and double value on your points. Points are normally worth 0.3% coin in. So it's worth 1.2% overall.

So this makes 9/6 Bonus Deluxe worth 100.84% overall. So the overall value of $4200 coin-in is $35.28 before errors. But you need a royal or an above average run of quads to ensure a profit of course.

 

Thanks, Tringlomane.

One thing I need to find out from South Point is whether or not double points will count toward the gift card promo. I wouldn't be surprised if only base points and not bonus points count toward being able to redeem the gift cards.

Even without the double points, though, if I value the $50 gift card as $50 I think what you're telling me is the points will be worth 0.6% coin in and will make 9/6 Bonus Deluxe worth 100.24% overall.

 

Looking at SP's website and clicking on the smith's promo link, looks like you need 8333 base points to get one Smith's card. So you need to run $8333 coin in ($25 in base points) to get the card, but you should also have $25 in extra points left over thanks to double points.

So in that case you get $75 total in value for $8333 coin in or $75/$8333 = 0.9% of coin in.

So that makes 9/6 Bonus Deluxe 100.54% after promos, which yields an average value of $45 after playing double the coin-in that you originally hoped.

And have a fat tire or two grinding at the bar for me! Haha

 

Ah, yes. I failed to recognize that I'd still have $25 in extra points. Thanks.
$8333 coin in may be too difficult to reach for an afternoon of quarter VP, but I may give it a shot anyway.
I do like playing Bonus Deluxe. In fact, you were the one who told me about the game and its strategy variances from JoB a few years ago. This was back when Suncoast still had 9/6 Bonus Deluxe at their bars.

Thanks again for sharing your insight with me and the rest of the board.

 

Not try to discourage you and I do understand the EV thing.
Last couple of times when I had very similar opportunities I tried my best and the results
were always on the other side. Instead of winning $X, I lost more than $10X.
As Tring said, unless you get a Royal or lots of Quads, very hard to come out ahead.

 

Yes, I certainly understand. However, I am going to be playing VP anyway. So, why not play somewhere that I like to play that also offers a higher EV than another casino?

 

No problem. And I remember. Took a nice beating at Suncoast right before those got downgraded. Doh.

Quarters only for the day would be pretty ambitious unless you're really fast (it's 6667 quarter hands total). I wouldn't want to play that long I think. I would consider getting on the 9/6 Jacks nickel 50-play (if it's open) and crank up the total bet if you're trying to get it done in less than 5 hours.

But at least you're getting 0.6% coin-in back regardless if you make it or not.