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Bob Dancer's 9/23 column

Discussion in 'Misc. Vegas Chat' started by westie, Sep 23, 2014.

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  1. westie

    westie VIP Whale

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  2. Piggylane

    Piggylane Well-Known Member

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    Fair? Let's look at it this way. If he was playing a game that on average returned 99.4% and put in $800,000 that's an expected loss of $4800. Now with 800 tickets worth 50 cents that's $400. His net loss is now $4400. Would he get comps backs from the casino for that much, being a local? Let's say he does and breaks even. So where does that leave him?

    It leaves him with 800 chances out 50,000 to win $25,000. That's a 1.6 percent chance, 62.5:1 odds of winning. Way better than the lady's but...

    I think the question shouldn't be "Is is fair?" But "Is it worth it?" To push that amount through with the risk of failure versus a relatively low reward doesn't seem to me to be the best decision. If it were for $200,000 that's another story!

    You say $25,000 is a lot of money! I do too but to a guy like "Dancer" it isn't. That's pocket change. A fortune to the theoretical lady and many readers here. An annual salary for some! An hour's play for him.

    What am I missing here?
     
  3. Brewfangrb

    Brewfangrb Low-Roller

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    He wasn't asking a "real" question. He was more speaking about the concept of complainers, players who don't play for value, who don't play for the best (lowest) HE, etc. As I read it, he wasn't really asking if the promo REALLY was fair. Because, of course it is--if you want more tickets, play more. Can't afford it? Well, lots of people can't afford lots of things that other who can afford them have. That's not "unfair". (It's only unfair if someone literally cheats). He also wasn't really even asking if it was worth it. For one thing, "being worth it" is relative, to a degree, beyond the math. At any rate, he's a smart guy and decided it was worth it--worth his time, worth the expected loss, worth the potential prize.

    Basically, he was simply saying: Play smart, do what you do and if you're a player like him, stay low so complainers don't make casinos take away whatever advantage you may have.
     
  4. PayTriple

    PayTriple The Cucumber King

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    Life isn't fair.

    Also many people discount opportunity costs.
     
  5. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Hmm... that sounds better than what I was going to say! I was going to say "Its an irony: he is whining about whiners"
     
  6. Aces and Eights

    Aces and Eights VIP Whale

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    The casino knows what they're doing. They want to increase the chances of the big bettor to win because most likely they will give it all back more quickly if they do win. So will they change the rules for the low bettor; not likely. I know the point of the story has to do with fairness, but I wanted to comment on what the casino may be thinking. 25k may not be much for a casino, but the patronage of a big bettor is worth a lot.
     
  7. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Yeah, the $25K isn't much for the casino: you can pretty much do the math from Bob's article:

    There are 50,000 tickets in the drum
    He says he has 800 tickets that resulted from $800K in play

    Not sure if points are earned the same rate on VP as they are on slots (he doesn't say the casino) but if they were that means it takes $50,000,000 to generate the 50,000 tickets in the draw

    So that means for every 1% of house edge the casino has is worth $500,000 to the casino... if one figures an average of 5% house edge (between VP and slot players) they would have made $2,500,000 in giving away this $25,000


    Either way, in the end I know what Bob is trying to say about "fairness" in these things: as a big player he should have more entries in the draw.

    And in the end he should. Comparing his 800 tickets to this woman's 3 is quite a stretch... but I'd be sure that in that crowd of people there were lots of people with only 1 or 2 entries in the draw and that would have been a better argument to point out to the woman, to compare what she has to others, not what he has to her.

    They do similar kinds of draws at my local casino and you do actually see a lot of the same people winning over and over again... but thats just because many of those people are there every day in the high limit room playing video slots at $25-100 a spin, hours every day, and so when it comes down to it they earn a lot more points and thus a lot more draw entries than somebody like my wife who'll go once every 2 weeks with $60-80 and play penny slots at a minimal bet for a couple of hours.
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    This is why I am more attracted to "hot seat" promos. I need an equal chance to have any real chance. One of my locals likes to give away a car most months. I don't bother because of weighted entries.

    Either way is fair as long as the casino spells it out.
     
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