50x Rewards Credits at Harrahs Northern California - April 28

It often seems the VMB definition of "theoretical" is "guaranteed to happen" or "lead pipe cinch".

The only thought worth putting in for this promotion at this property would be "is this property convenient to get to for me?", "do I like this property?", and "do I feel like playing to give it a shot?".

Figuring various theo scenarios, vp paytables, and gas and time expenses is a complete waste of time if you can't easily answer "yes" to the first 3 questions I laid out above.

 

Couldn't disagree more. Everyone is different but the question should be is the time/effort worth the expected return and can I afford the swings. I'm perfectly fine playing games at a net advantage for me under some promotion and if I lose I lose. Over the course I've my life I've made a lot of money from +ev promos,some live some online. I also couldn't care less how nice the casino is if the money is worth it.

Of course expenses and time matter. If I had a casino down the block and a promo was worth 50 bucks and would take me 10 mins I'd go do it when I'm bored one day. For something in the middle of nowhere across the country it needs to be worth a lot to motivate me to go.

The legal sites were giving out tons of money on the sportsbooks and casinos through various promos. While that's dried up a ton I still do some casino bonuses that clear at 40-50x on blackjack . If they wanna give me 2-2.5 percent in return for giving them .04% back I'll take that all day long. It doesn't mean I profit on every bonus but overall I'm basically where I should be.

Draftkings had a redicilous public promo a few years ago- play 20k on vacation blackjack (it was just regular blackjack with a specific felt) and get 2,000 dollars. The ev of this is about 1900 dollars. For some reason it was only good in Pennsylvania and Michigan. I live in NY and drove about an hour into PA and banged it out in about an hour playing 25 dollars a hand. I would have flown to Michigan if it was only valid there bc the money would have been worth the time and effort. If it was worth 500 I would have did it if it was valid in NJ or PA but wouldn't be flying anywhere for it.

At some point the expected return on a promotion would be so high you'd happily go do it no matter where the casino was,how much of a dump it was etc.

 

Here is the link to the promo to check it out yourself: https://www.caesars.com/harrahs-northern-california/casino/promotions/hbv-50x-rcm
I would not fly to this promo, but if I were within a one hour driving radius I would hit it, even with bad 6/5 bonus at 96.87%. Unfortunately, I flipped through their Instagram to try to see if I could find pay tables for their jackpots and found someone winning $70,000 on a $50 bet playing Triple Double Bonus Max Action, which when I looked it up on Wizard of Odds was a 96.01% payback. Ouch! https://www.instagram.com/p/Cjn5szYJTY0/?hl=en&img_index=2 I did also see 7/5 DDB blue boxes which would be a 96.54% game and 8/5 TDB blue boxes which is 96.81%.
They do have electronic table games, which generally pay $50 per RC, at others Caesars casinos odds bets count towards RC multipliers. If it is known that ETG RCs multiply and odds count, the best way to grind this promotion is to play a three point molly/dolly on craps. If I recall correctly the Interblocks have 2x odds and Casino Wizards have 3 for a 0.39%-0.66% profit, but also a quite boring way to do it. I did part of a diamond multiplier run this way on a Casino Wizard for 15 minutes and decided that 9/5 jacks or better was a better use of my time.

 

Don't see why not? Even good old CET 6/5 VP will get you "there" (5k TC's) pretty quickly, playing quarter 5/10 play, with a positive expectation from the game/RC's itself. Add to that the theo the marketing offer algo will assign you for future trips, the waived resort fee...sounds like a super positive play if you are somewhat near. And yes I know, 5k tier credits is not "maxing the offer", but "maxing the value of the offer" for someone that stands at 0 tier

 

We certainly agree that everyone is, indeed, different.

I'm again probably the odd one out. But I'm not driving an hour or two to play a promotion on my phone. And I'm certainly not flying anywhere for that.

I have little to no interest in sports betting. Haven't even downloaded an app since it's become legal in Arizona.

Just the time and effort searching and researching these promos sounds like a drag to me.

And theo is just that: theoretical. A guage that can be used to break down the possible value of a promotion. But in no way a guarantee. And open to various different opinions. There are various opinions of the theo for this promo from different posters.

I spent too many years where good gambling conditions were the norm. Where just showing up got me RFB upfront and made trips worthwhile. And admittedly, my interest in gambling has waned over the last few years. I don't want it to feel like "work" or have to jump through hoops, or play when I don't want to play and go where I don't want to go.

I'm glad there still some plays for those who want to make the effort. But, yeah, I'm different.

 

nobody is saying theo is guaranteed. i'm fine losing when I have the advantage bc in the long run it prints money.
if you offered me 1.2 to 1 on coinflips I'd play for as long as you let me. If you told me we're only doing 10 flips I'd do the ten flips and if I lose that's fine.

what I'm not fine with is playing games where I'm a a disadvantage for any real money. to me there is simply zero fun in that. i know I'm slowly giving my money away whether or I win or lose that night. I realize that makes me different than most on this board who gamble for fun so I'm definitely different myself in that regard. I will play low stakes if friends are in town with a couple of days to hang out and drink with them but I'd be perfectly content going to a bar with them instead. i'm just paying for the drinks with my small gambling losses.

Now I am fairly certain for the right price you would drive a couple of hours for an amazing promo. It might have to be for more money and a better promo than it would take to get me to do with but that number exists. You might want to not do the work to figure out the value of a promo but if it fell into your lap at some point it's hard to resist.

 

At Caesars in Vegas the ETGs are $200 a point, although odds are factored in. At that level it is not worth grinding craps to chase points.

 

Best games I found were 8/5 TDB (95.97%) 7/5 JoB (96.15%) and 6/5 BP (96.87%)

I meant to earn 10K Points for the full 500K RC Bonus but hit a Royal 115 RC’s in so I’m leaving with that

 

Congrats on the royal and thanks for info on the best pay tables.

Was it pretty crowded there?

 

yes at 2pm the place was packed

 

Here are my hits 10 minutes apart.

 

If I'm playing multi-hand $0.10 denom, this is the exact reason I'll only play 95 hands. But very nice hits!

 

Yeah, I mathed wrong. After the first one, I thought it's so unlikely I'll hit it again. Oops. Well, it sure didn't hit after I corrected it after the second time.