Slots Coin In vs. Bankroll

There have been a few recent threads asking about this. I'm just trying to wrap my head around it. What is the math that get's you there?

For example, if I want to put $12,500 coin in through a penny slot, how can I realistically estimate the bankroll I need to accomplish that?

I really appreciate all the math-heads around here. TIA.

 

For "slots" its near impossible to know, because you don't know the variance nor the payback.
For video poker, its easier to figure out.
Honestly for $12500 on a penny slot...Id say $1000?

 

Wow, you are really optimistic; I need your attitude...lol The average penny slot payout is below 88% on the strip.

11500/12500 = 92% return, so you would need to run 4% above average! If someone max bets, maybe they succeed 10% of the time, but I'm just guessing there, I don't have a PAR sheet to look at.

 

That comes to about 2500 tier credits I believe.
Heading to Vegas soon and will try to track my tier credits with associated bankroll to get some sort of estimate then post back.

 

If the machine is paying back 90%, it'd take about a $1300 bankroll. But course it could cost you much more or much less due to variance.

 

You can easily lose $1300 putting 25000 through a 99.5% VP machine. That is nowhere near enough for a penny slot.

 

On a 90% slot machine, if you do 12500 coin in, the casino thinks you lost ~$1300.

So yes, on average that is how much you need for that type of slot. You could get lucky and not lose a dime. You could get unlucky and not even get to 2000 coin in. That is why BayouBengal mentioned variance.



It isn't exact but I assume 85% return on penny slots. With this my end goal while playing slots is I can run my money through ~7 times($100 will get me $700 coin in).

 

Thats pretty much what I was going to say. We've played a lot of penny slots for years and I've found that barring a run of real bad luck or hitting some kind of jackpot, and assuming you have at least an appropriate sized bankroll (enough for 600+ spins) you should be able to get 7-9 times your bankroll worth of play through the machines playing almost to ruin.

 

Thanks, all. I guess it's the variance I'm trying to get a handle on. And it seems that's the "magic" part that no one really knows.

 

That's why some people call it "luck". It's an unknown. However there is some good advice here.

Bank on a 75% return if your conservative or a 90% return if your an optimist. That would mean $3000 should be enough, $1250 might do it.

You can help yourself out by finding machines with low jackpots. The lower the biggest jackpot the more likely it is to be hit and thus the more variance is evened out. Also the more lines on a machine the more even the ride (assuming the same cost on the spin total).

If you can find a 100 line penny machine with a 10,000 coin top jackpot or lower you should have a pretty smooth ride.

 

It's worth noting that for $12,500 playing on a 9/6 JOB $ VP I would have a minimum of $1,000 bankroll and that game pays 99.5%. But playing the same 9/6 Jacks on a 50 Line 2c machine my bankroll drops to $250 even though they are both $5 a spin.

 

^This.

$3,000 to $3,500 would be my estimate to guarantee reaching your $12.5K goal before running out of cash. Doubt whatever you are getting in return is worth the risk.

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