Table Games Craps and the Maximum Free Odds

This is the same logic as saying "you should have hit 15 against a 5 that time because a 6 came up"

You don't know the outcome when you decide amount of the bet. If the two friends agree to alternate between 100 and 1 dollar bets in any pattern you like, the expectation is still even.

 

1 day probably won't give you enough of a sample size. Maybe if they play every day for the rest of their lives.
yes the expectation is the same, but your results can and will vary. Variance is a bitch.

Define how long, in time if you will, how long is "in the long run"?

Because with math if the results aren't even yet, just keep going........
Instead of good luck, I say may you experience "good variance"

 

Sample size doesn't matter for expected value.

It does matter for variance, which is why the next sentence after the text you quoted originally mentioned that the only difference was variance.

Also worth noting that a higher sample size doesn't really mean you are more likely to be exactly even. You'll just be closer to even as a proportion of the total amount bet.

From the time you make your first bet ever on the game until the time you make your last one. So, different for everyone.

A mathematician would probably not like that statement at all. The results are independent. If the results aren't even, that doesn't make it any more likely they will "even out" later.

 

Why do I gamble? For Fun!

I'm not here to pick nits. I always say "Around .86%" whatever because depending on who's stats you're reading there is a range from one guru to another. .18 comes from a Craps Video on you tube by a self professed authority who has written several successful books on various casino games. See ACG you tube.

I just play for fun these days and I'm not a self professed guru by any means. I have been doing it for a long time so I do know a thing or two about gambling.

I take it with a grain of salt and always look for the good in anything. I can find fault with anything on this planet if I try hard enough.

If you double up your pass line bet on the come out roll and hit that 7 or 11 that feels good.

I mean, whats another 7 cents to ya? ($5.00 X 1.41% = 7.05 cents)

If it means that much then maybe you shouldn't be gambling?

.

 

Being a math nit, Nevyn is absolutely right.

Odds don't change your expected loss per come out roll. It just jacks up the variance of the bet, making you more able to win and lose larger amounts.

This being said, you should only play the amount of odds you feel comfortable playing, and I would look for the lowest pass line minimum possible.

 

If your choice is a $5 minimum table where you play max odds at 3-4-5 or a $10 minimum table where you aren't comfortable with full odds so you play 1.5, 2, 2.5, the mathematical difference is so small that it doesn't matter. But in the long run you'd make more playing the $5 table.

 

Just my 2 cents...with my limited bankroll I generally take only double odds to start, use the 3X or 5X odds (or 20X in the case of Main St. Station?!)to increase bet size as a "hedged press", so to speak, when the table seems to be trending good.The goal being to increase your bet size in a more conservative fashion than a full pass line press...

P.S.-I've never played qat a table "hot" enough to warrant a press to 100X odds...

 

Need I say more?

The point of this thread is solely to rebut the advice given by Guru's that like to tell you how you should spend your money.

If we followed this advice many of us would go broke.

I always advocate playing within your means and if you're on a roll then you can increase your be size accordingly.

Here's a true story.

I was playing at the Casino Royale on the $5 dollar table. A man came in, I think he was a New Yorker. He had on all the gold on and an expensive watch.

He bought in for a very large amount, in the thousands. He made all the bets, buy and place as well as the hard ways, and took the maximum odds on every point and come.

In a span of about 30 minutes he was broke. It was painful to watch.

Me on the other hand, I just kept chipping away as usual, and walked away about $50 up.

Casino Royale used to offer 100X odds at the $5 dollar level and above, and 10X on the $3 dollar table. They have since added two tables, expanded the casino and moved the food court to the back. I havn't seen a $3 dollar table there for a long time, but I usually stop in on a Saturday afternoon on my way downtown.

 

Plenty of charlatans in print. Just as there are plenty of charlatans expounding on the internet. But it is ironic that your advice -- the math having been exploded -- now becomes "don't listen to those guys" when almost every one one of your posts involves telling folks your theories on how they should play. What's the difference between your advice and the advice of others? Being paid and in print negates expertise? Your motivation is pure and the others' is impure? Don't stifle your opinions; that's what this place is all about. But don't try to dispute math with bad math or pass off myth as method, and then simply wave a hand and say the other side knows not of what it speaks, for some do.

There is no one correct way to play anything, simply because everyone has his/her personal motivations for stepping up to the plate. If there was only one type of "correctness" the casinos wouldn't be wall to wall with carnival games and slot machines because "correct" players would refuse to play them.

Money management is not a playing strategy. Playing "smart" is not a playing strategy. Getting in/out as things go "hot" or "cold" is not a playing strategy. Knowing basic strategy, being able to count, knowing the plays for each scenario in VP, those are strategies. None are guarantees, of course. They are useful tools.

Now taking a break after a series of bad beats might be a wise thing to do. But it's not a playing strategy.

 

From Meriam Websters Dictionary- #2 defintion of "Strategy":

a: a careful plan or method : a clever stratagem

b: the art of devising or employing plans or stratagems toward a goal

 

Ken, I didn't want to bump my own thread.

It's nice to see you linking to your own web site here on VMB.

You being a writer of sorts might get offended, but my point is and was if you read it that you might not necessarily want to follow the advice of a self professed guru telling you how you should spend your money, even if he has been published.

I advocate playing within our budget and having fun doing so. No one wants to get kicked in the teeth. I speak from experience, and I seek nothing from anyone.

So, thank you for your opinion. Someday I may even read some or your writings, but most likely not.

.

 

I wish I could say this much with only two sentences. Heck maybe I should become a gambling guru writer!