March 2024 - Trip #13 - another one?

What the puny god said to @VegasDaytripper at Bellagio was

 

Not trying to rub any salt in the wound. But a serious question: if you were wagering that much, why play on a double zero wheel?

 

Taking 2 months "off" sounds like a plan...I sense the routine of a day trip every week will be tough to break, but I really believe once you get past the first two week period, you'll adjust to the newfound time.
There's nothing wrong with taking a day trip once a month or every other month, with tempered expectations and walking away with modest wins for the next trip...

 

I’m actually happy everyone in here is rooting (or supporting) his break!

 

Yeah probably

 

Because I like the numbers I like for a reason

Do you think there is a significant difference in house edge between single and double zero for the way I play? Playing about 10-11 numbers straight up

 

My opinion is yes there is.

For each number you’re betting on a single zero wheel, there are 36 “not that number” possibilities for your bet to lose.

For each number you’re betting on a double zero wheel, there are 37 “not that number” possibilities for your bet to lose.

Is that difference of 1/37 or about 2.7% a lot? It works out to $27 worth of expected value for every $1,000 wagered. That seems like peanuts when you’re placing $100 chips across the layout on an instinct that you’re comfortable with. But that 00 is going to come up 1/38 times on average… and the cumulative effect of the house edge will take its toll with continued play on a 00 wheel.

 

Is this comparable to how I told you that even though I've never played a hand of blackjack, that I wouldn't be able to bring myself to play 6:5 blackjack.....

 

Yes, I do think there is a significant difference.

Not being critical. I just didn't understand it (and, honestly, still do not)

 

I know you don’t need my advice. I just wanted to tell you what I know: you do need at least 6 months away from gambling, and then extend it to a year, then make it even longer. So “a few years” from @ColoVegPlayer was actually very sound advice. If it’s shorter than 6 months , it won’t change anything for the long term, you will come back and fall into the same trap all over again.

 

Plan is to hit 3-4 times and get out, which has happened enough times to keep me going back to it
I don't think 2.7% difference matters in a short session like that


I've tried taking a section of the single zero that best fits my favorite numbers ... Just doesn't play out the same. Maybe I could get used to it over time. I'd need a piece of paper with my set of numbers for the single zero wheel so I don't mess it up when placing the bets

 

Even on four spins with $1,000 in action per spin you’re giving up $100 in value.

It might not feel like it if 00 never comes up. But the 1/38 times that it does come up… it will wipe out all $1,000 of your bets which will be the $27 per spin theo “all caught up”.

 

Damn you so depressing.... LOLs
I guess at the end of the day, YOLO. Bet what you want and makes you happy.

The odds on double zero is still better than most slots. Just like 6:5 BJ.

I'll stick to BAANKKKKKKKKK

 

this made me curious so I just went through my spreadsheet
wow
I've had several daytrips (without overnight stay) with losses over $12k, $13k, and $14k before
so yes, this $15,900 loss is the biggest daytrip loss

it also reminded me of the $15k, $20k, $30k+ winning trips as well

 

I’m going to back up @VegasDaytripper here on why he would choose American Roulette (00) over a European Roulette (0) wheel. We all know what House Advantage means and what that means to playing a single zero wheel versus a double zero wheel (assuming the payouts don’t change). For a few spins the house advantage is still there, but ultimately you still need to get lucky on both roulette wheels. The key difference is quadrants. As a Brit, I used to play roulette exclusively (many years ago going back to student days). I probably still know the wheel off by heart, which means I can determine which quadrant the ball has landed in, with all the adjacent numbers. I used to cover 1/3 of the wheel, concentrating on 2 numbers in the middle (23 and 8 for the single zero wheel layout). The same can be said for someone who knows the double zero wheel layout, and how you place your bets on the table based on quadrants. So, I’d say it’s more a factor to be comfortable around the wheel layout than the relatively small difference in House Advantage, and your particular style of play.

(For those that use the 6/5 over 3/2 blackjack example for house advantage, it’s more to do with the type of player who plays the game rather than the inherent disadvantage of the blackjack payout, where some players may stand on a 12 against a dealers ace and not take cards which affects the flow for the table. I’d rather play 3/2 blackjack because the players are more likely to know and apply basic strategy.)

Late last year I was in the Galaxy Macau, with my French friends who’d flown in for the week. They prefer roulette, and played on the table next to the craps table where I was basically losing. They cover the number 5 on the single zero roulette European table. That’s their number. They hit it 3 times in a row with only 4-5 numbers placed. They won a ton. They got lucky. And there it is….a few spins and they got lucky. My problem with this is that they always seem to get lucky. I believe that some people are simply luckier than others. I believe you can also improve your chances of luck or success, but you still need to get lucky.

Sometimes I think to myself that I’m simply not lucky. However, if I delve deep down inside of myself, I realise that I am indeed extremely lucky; to have travelled to so many places in my life, to go to Vegas every year, to have whatever it is that I have. I may not see this in cold hard winnings on a craps table, but then I get to meet some seriously wonderful people in my life. I’ve met @VegasDaytripper last year, and I’m lucky to have met him. I wish him better luck .

 

I’m not one of those who says there are no good reasons to play with worse house odds - since mathematically this would just mean you shouldn’t ever play anything. Maybe the table is more fun, you care mostly about absolute dollars and the limits are lower, whatever.

That said, this specific argument is sort of nonsensical to me. “You have to get lucky anyway,” is like saying, “I have to spend money anyway, what does it matter what it costs?” And comfort is important, but this sort of comfort is just a matter of learning. Are there times when you’ll pay more for that bottle of water because of circumstances? Sure. Should you do it because you remember how to get to the hotel gift shop and you can’t remember if the Walgreens is out this door or that one? Maybe not great if you are frequently buying bottles.

 

As we all know, "Luck" is required to win for any negative-expectation game, (with a few, single hand/event exceptions).
The "banking-a-win" strategy for as many 'sessions' as you can - that, (to me), is taking advantage of the luck you do get.
Hit quads playing VP? I cash out right then if that results in a net-win.
Hit a straight-flush in 3-Card? Cash out & run!
Catch quads playing UTH? I ought to run, but I never do!

If I'm going to "grind" (and I always spend considerable time during my trips doing so), 3:2, double-deck blackjack is the way to go for me - no big payouts possible, but no big losses either, with a 'less-than-0.7%' house advantage.

I love craps. I love UTH... but blackjack is the stable, "responsible" form of gambling for me. So, what I try to do is first build-up some winnings at blackjack, then take that money to UTH or craps.
Consequently, I don't have many winning trips these days, but my losing trips are typically 1/3 or 1/4 of my beginning bankroll, so my next trip's bankroll is already 66-75% funded!

Boring? For some, perhaps. For me, it's about getting out there, having fun, and hoping for that royal in UTH!

 

While I was shaving this morning I actually thought of what I believe to be the perfect way to explain this, just while we're kinda/sorta on the topic.

Although the idea of "losing $27 every spin" might seem only abstract or theoretical as a matter of just math, let's consider the cost of "hedging" the additional 00 number so that it pays even if it hits. That is... say you're betting $1,000 straight-up on #17 (to keep it simple). On single zero, there are 36 numbers that are "not 17"... zero, 1-16, and 18-36. On double zero, there are 37 numbers that are "not 17"... zero, double zero, 1-16, and 18-36. As we already know, 37/38 times the player will be fine. The 00 number will not come up, and it will be as if it wasn't there. Each spin is "costing" the $1,000 bettor $27 per spin, because on the 38th spin where they'll lose their entire $1,000... that's the cumulative effect of the 00's presence. That is... 37 spins where 00 doesn't come up, multiplied by $27 in expected loss per spin... and what do you get? Yup, exactly $1,000.

So here's where I realized the best way to explain this...

The alternative to losing $1,000 on 1 / 38 spins when 00 comes up is to bet $27 on 00 EVERY spin. That way if 00 comes up, it will pay $1,000... thereby saving your main bet(s). Go 37 spins with no 00 coming up, and you'll lose that same $1,000... just $27 at a time.

It's six one way or a half dozen the other. You can either lose a FIGURATIVE $27 per spin in the form of a $1,000 loss 1/38 times the ball is spun, or you can lose an ACTUAL $1,000 (after 37 spins) by betting $27 on 00 every spin to ensure you're covered if it hits.

As you can see, there's no escaping this. In simpler terms... it's either "pay it now (by betting $27 per spin on 00), or pay it later (by losing your whole bet when 00 comes up)".

I suppose that in the short term if you can get lucky and 00 never comes up, it's as though it never existed. But by the 38th spin (whether in a session or multiple sessions), it's due to come up... and again, there's no avoiding it.

My "pragmatic" unsolicited suggestion is that if one wants to play this way (i.e., placing large bets on a 00 wheel out of a preference for the layout), it would be wise to put even a small hedge bet on 00 every time. Even if that's just $15 to return $540, it won't completely sting whenever 00 comes up. Even with a $1,000 loss of the main bets, you'll get more than half of it back this way. It's all still subject to the same house edge of over 5%, but it at least partially mitigates the main vulnerability.

 

What's the most number of the same number you've seen hit back to back to back on a wheel? I've seen the same number hit 4 times in a row ... I think that is the most.
I've seen many 3x and seeing 2x doesn't even register as a big deal.

I've personally had the same number hit 2 times ... Miss by 1 spot (but it still hit one of my numbers since it was next to the original number). Then hit the original number again on the 4th spin.

I play the numbers I play for a reason and am looking for the ball to land in the same zone on consecutive spins. They are my lucky* numbers (lucky when they hit)
And whatever 2.7% difference in HA between single and double zero wheel doesn't matter if the ball is just landing in the same zone for a few spins in a row


Also this reminded me about the whole "why double zero over single zero?"
Because when I first started playing roulette, I was betting much less and the higher minimum at a single zero wheel was enough to deter me from playing on it
Like $5 per number times 8 ... Only $40
I was not willing to play on a $100 or $200 minimum table

So for many years, I only played double zero, picking my set of numbers and playing the same set of numbers over and over

I have tried playing single zero here and there but it isn't the same. If I feel like just betting bigger on the outside bets, I would pick single zero
But for playing the numbers, I like my set of numbers so I stick with the double zero
It's hard to break away from playing the same set of numbers for like 20 years

 

I'm confused, are you saying your bets are too low for a single zero table?