NFL 2015 Week Two

Week one is in the books. Time to talk about week two ....

 

Buffalo +1
Miami -6
Eagles-5

 

STL -3 v WAS

Over 2.5 picks for Cousins

WAS just lost their starting corner. Pretty much paper thin there. Cousins looks like he struggles to throw the short/long outside ball which means he's going to have to throw to the middle on short time with that nasty STL pass rush breathing down his neck. I think WAS can stop the north/south run game but not any type of run game with any width.

Super square pick i know but after watching the MIA/WAS game this last week i really like STL here by a TD. I thought MIA looked like garbage vs an average at best team.

Will look at the rest of the card tomorrow.

 

I've been eyeing buff and philly myself.

 

Wow, three INTs is a lot. What is the line on that?

 

All ATS. Unless listed.

Had a pretty solid week 1 going 4-2 . Won Rams, Chiefs, Cowboys (live ML) and 49ers (ML). Lost Colts and an Under bet for Titans.(Cowboys live bet ML for +110 - you had no idea how happy I was when Giants pooped the game away).

Some early lines I like and quick write up. I still need to do a lot of reading and forum leans but here's my quick hunch that I've got on top of my list:

Number of * = my confident level. *** being most confident.

*Chiefs -3 vs Broncos. (Only reason I pick this game is because I love Thursday plays)

Manning has had several shitty game now in a row and while that might be indication that he has hit his ceiling and he's slowly declining, the second half of the Chiefs game showed some big holes in their defense. That and Manning is and always will be 100x better than Hoyer in ability and smarts. I think Manning will show glimpses of his self. Plus the Broncos defense look pretty solid against Ravens/Flacco. I think they can stop the run, but I think Smith might be able to manage the game long enough as well. Tough call for me and will be a game time decision. Leaning Broncos at first but home team has been dominate on Thursday night football all of last year and the Patriots has started the trend again.

**Bengals -3.5 vs Chargers

Chargers should have been blown out. But Lions being typically bad in the second half and going away from the run game and just airing the ball. Keenan Allen looked like he was Jerry Rice against that crap defense. I don't think Bengals give him as much freedom. Philip Rivers is a maestro though and this is another tough call. But the way Bengals handled Raiders? I think that carries over to next game. Plus Dalton is a helluva ginger... I mean QB during the regular season. I think Bengals should cover pretty easily.

***Rams -4 (line quickly moving...) vs Redskins

Redskins sucks. I don't even need to write this up. Rams showed they are forreal. They can move the ball with a real QB now that they got one that doesn't get hurt every year and their defensive line will force Redskins to punt 3 and out's more time than they get first downs or turn it over. Pick 6s? Fumbles? Pick those props over if your books offer for the Skins. It's going to be a blood bath.

*49ers +5.5 (or ML...) vs Steelers

I'm a 49ers homer. LOL Probably small play here. But no Bell still due to suspension. 49ers defense looked solid. Only thing I worry about is the 49ers need a lot of work on the offense. The variable that I like is Pittsburgh secondary is average at best.

***Boys/Eagles U56

From game 1, Boys likes to milk the clock down and then run the ball. Without Bryant I see them staying true to this strategy and they want to give their defense rests between Eagles fast pace offense. But Eagles defense blows, so I don't know. Cowboys might light them up but hopefully Atlanta was forreal and Eagles defense found some rhythm in second half.

 

Just for some perspective on what came down week one. Last year week one Miami upset the Pats and talk was they might be done.
Titans beat the Chiefs, who were coming off an 11 win 2013 and Tenn would win only one more game; and SF was on its way to the NFC Final with a win over Dallas.
Lots of team development (or not) yet to happen this year.
Just food for thought.

 

Props probably wont be available until Fri/Sat but i'm going to be all over this at either 1.5/2.5. Cousins sucks, they cant disguise it. I think that they matched up with MIA well {who also looked terrible}. Admittedly I'm a Jeff Fisher fanboy but STL are a different animal.

How the hell are Philly -5 favs?!?!?

 

Anyone play on Draft Kings or Fan Duel? I play Draft Kings a lot. I won $3k this week. It's a ton of fun.

 

I don't but there's a lot of commercials for these recently. Are they legit?

 

Yea completely. And yea, the marketing push right now is huge. Both are fine. They do pay by check. It's very easy and makes everything more interesting when watching the games.

 

Congrats on the 3K win! I'll look into it.

 

Cooler send me a pm with ur user name and I'll add ya

 

DK or Fan Duel?

 

How long until the US gov punts on them like poker????

 

Thought the same thing before. But it's legit right now but haven't played it myself.

 

I enjoy it. I should be less lazy and actually do the expected value and overlay analysis necessary to have decent success. But I haven't reached that point of seriousness with it. Just harmless fun at this point.

 

Ya. It just reminds me of the poker boom in its prime with all the ads that are on. I read somewhere that they spent around 25-30 mill this month alone on advertising. I don't fault them for making their money while they can though.

 

They have the backing of all the major sports leagues (F'ing hypocrites), Disney and Yahoo. It ain't going anywhere. It is classified as a game of skill in 46 of the 50 states I believe and thus allowable in those states. As long as there is more than one game to play (You can't have a league only using the one Thursday night game) you can play.

It has almost made me want to jump back into Fantasy gaming, but I think I might rather back a player than do the research myself.

 

It is...although its full of sharks and difficult for anyone to win money in the long run. Not that much different than sports betting I guess. Saw this yesterday:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football