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What to do? Flopped a boat, may not be good though.

Discussion in 'The Poker Room' started by TRN, May 19, 2017.

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  1. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    This is in a $2/$5 NLHE cash game during a recent visit to another casino during a work trip.

    Fairly early in the session, so no great reads, plus the table/game just opened 15-20 mins ago. It may be Villain's first hand played.

    Hero is in position UTG+2 with ~$500 (max buy in). Villain is in Lojack with similar stack.

    Hero gets pocket 55, action folds to hero pre-flop, hero raises to $15. Villain calls, everyone else folds. Pot: $37

    Flop: 666

    Hero leads out for $15 to test the water, villain calls. Pot: $67

    Turn: 5

    Hero leads out for $25, villain calls. Pot: $117

    River: 9 (no flush possibilities if it matters)

    Hero's action?
     
  2. meyers67

    meyers67 VIP Whale

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    Check/call. Feels like the guy has two overcards and you might pick off a bluff.
     
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  3. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    I can't imagine getting a call from something worse, nor do I see what we fold that beats us besides maybe 77-88, so I think a check is pretty easy

    Probably evaluating his sizing
     
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  4. vetsen

    vetsen Low-Roller

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    I like betting $25 again.

    If he has an ace you may get a call. If you check, he may sense weakness and bet more than you're comfortable calling with that same ace.
     
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  5. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    You've led out small twice, so there is no reason he could not have been calling you with overcards.

    6 is almost impossible, so the worry is all the middle pockets. But he has a lot of other cards he could have been calling with given your bet size.

    The trouble is, if we shut down, it looks incredibly weak and both the hands we are leading and beating us could bet back into us.

    I think I like a bet of around $40, with a fold to a raise. But I would not expect a raise very often, as our potential range has higher pairs. Check/call is ok, but it lets villain set the price.

    And I think a third small barrel can easily get looked up by worse.
     
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  6. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I had the same mindset of some of you - I thought checking was just going to put me in a position of letting V control the bet size/pot. So I fired off a bet of $50 on the river. Probably could have went a little lower for the same effect, but I was folding to a raise in that spot anyway, regardless of my third barrel.

    Hero bets $50 on the river. Villain snap calls and immediately flips over his hand: 33. Hero scoops a pot.
     
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  7. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    V could just as easily have played it the same way with 77, 88, 99, TT, maybe AK/AQ type hands too depending on his style.

    Hero got lucky but was controlling the bet sizing in case the luck wasn't on hero's side.
     
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  8. meyers67

    meyers67 VIP Whale

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    What do you think your opponent would have done if you checked the river?

    Different playing styles usually mean different approaches can work, but in this case I feel a river check was the way to go.
     
  9. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I am not sure what he'd do... but I am obviously afraid that he's going to fire off a bet regardless (even if he's playing A high). Depending how big he might make the bet/pot, it's likely going to put me in an uncomfortable spot and be one of those situations where I'd talk myself into waiting for a better spot to make a call, and folding with the best hand. I'd rather control the size of the river bet, which is why I led out, and put it on him to decide on the call. Maybe it wasn't the right play, but I'd rather try to control it than give up control on the last street.
     
  10. theghost

    theghost Stuck at work, but should find a poker table

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    TRN, I rather like the river bet, as you have been maintaining control of the pot since the open. Your hand play could look a bit soft to the V and he is calling down for perceived value thinking you could be barreling (although small) with over cards that you raised PF with. His call down on the Flop and turn tell me he isn't exactly in love with his hand either but probably didn't have a great idea what to do with it after a flop like that and is somewhat "hoping" or hanging on that he can beat a bluff.

    I cant see how checking the river is a better play in this spot as you open yourself up for some tough decisions........what do you do if he over bet shoves on the river? I think with the texture you described, the reads at the time and how the hand played out it was a thin value play that had the best result possible for you.

    Of course its always easier for us to sit around and dissect what others should have done. Maybe ill see you at the WSOP this year, plans are pretty fluid as of yet but hope they allow me to make a couple events.
     
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  11. meyers67

    meyers67 VIP Whale

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    Hey guys - I will offer a different opinion (I'm not bashing).

    The goal of the game is to make the most money. If "giving up control" of a pot gives you more return then betting then there is nothing wrong with a check on the river. Let's go through the possibilities.

    - if you bet the river, you said you are folding to a raise. An aggressive player with nothing could push you off the hand and you just lost another $50.
    - if you check, let's examine the possibilities
    A) he pushes and you fold. Well if he is gonna push when you check he might do the same when you bet $50. I'm assuming you check big hands occasionally as well.
    B) the biggest reason is that if he has AQ / KQs /QJs type hands - and I see people call bets on this type of Board all the time, he will fire at the pot for 50-75ish. And this is the situation that makes checking advantageous.

    You were in a rare situation where the guy had a lower pair, and your bet was the right play for this situation. It possible he would of bet the river of you checked so it might have been a wash.
     
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