Video Poker VP Bankroll question

I need some bankroll advice for my upcoming March Madness trip. I would like to make MLife Gold on this trip. Factoring in the points I will earn from general spend and other gambling I think I will need about 25k coin in on VP.

I'll be staying 3 days at Luxor and I would prefer to do the entire 25k on $1 9/6 JOB at the high limit bar. Problem is, I don't think I will dedicate enough time to it to get 5k hands in. For this reason I think I will mix in some $2 9/6 JOB and some $1 3 play 8/5 Bonus Poker.

Other comments, while I would like to make Gold it isn't a huge priority. If I catch a bad wave of variance I'll shut it down. I don't prefer high variance so DSTP and the like are out for me at the $1 and up levels.

What is a realistic bankroll to get this done with a low risk of ruin? Also, any comments about change in approach are welcome.

 

At 5$ a hand 200 hands would be 1k in. If you play at a moderate pace of 6 hands a minute (focus on playing rather than chatting) you need to play for 33 minutes or so to get in 200 hands (@6 hands per minute). So you could play for 2 hours, focus 2/3rds of the time and be over 10% of the way. Have 3 sessions per day and you are well on your way. If you try to jam it in one long stretch you are looking at making poor choices/mistakes in play.
So you are looking at maybe 6 hours at the machine a day (less if you speed up the variables). Personally I think the hands per hour are low but there are bathroom breaks to consider as well as other unplanned interruptions. Tring will probably chime in with some pretty accurate risk of ruin numbers for you to consider. Good luck and give some feedback as to final plan and results.

 

Link to Wizardofodds post on bankroll size and risk of ruin. https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/1/

 

Attached is an analysis of various VP games I did a few years back using Monte Carlo simulations. It includes 9/6 JOB and 8/5 Bonus. I play mostly at the .25 max bet level, so I did it based on my play style, but the results scale up linearly. Basically, I start with $300 and play 2500 hands, which is $3125 coin in. The chart gives the probabilities of different outcomes, as well as the "over/under" 50% probability loss amount. Taking your case and keeping things proportional, with $2 JOB and $25k coin in, you'd start with a bankroll of $2400. You're risk of going broke would be 4.3%. The "over/under" on your loss would be $560. The probability that you will have a loss is 70.5%, that you'll have again is 29.1%, and .4% that you'll break even. You can see the other outcome likelihoods and amounts, just multiply the amounts by 8, since you're betting eight times what I do.

 

bubbakitty, I was planning on starting at $1 JOB and seeing what kind of dent I could make before moving up in denomination. I typically play very fast but not for long stretches so this will be a bit new to me. I'll probably do a trip report but if not I'll at least update this post to share the outcome.

marksind, that chart is just what I was looking for, thank you. I'm sure I will reference it many times in the future.

 

Here is a google docs created from a member of www.wizardofvegas.com... After reviewing the post and docs, I was able to achieve $25,000 coin in consecutive days($50K total) this past weekend in Las Vegas... Here are the links and good luck..

http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/video-poker/26887-diad-risk-of-ruin/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KHOLCJCCWfxP0Y8DO25FiH-APy77KoUR7NqcgvJm0wA/edit#gid=128729735

 

Same bounceback rate for each game and denom?