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V/P Cruise offer need some math expertise

Discussion in 'Comps' started by ducc, Mar 21, 2017.

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  1. ducc

    ducc Low-Roller

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    Ok as mentioned in another thread I got a cruise offer. Not as juicy as my last offer as 25k in points maxed out the offer. It is a Complimentary interior cabin for two on a Carnival Cruise Line sailing ranging from 4-7-days in duration. Destinations include Caribb, Mex, Bahamas, Can-NE.

    upgrade options:
    25,000k = Complimentary interior cabin 8 days
    35,000k= Complimentary oceanview cabin 8 days
    70,000k= Complimentary balcony cabin 14 days
    150,000k= Complimentary suite 14 days

    Assuming i'm playing pennies with a 12.5% hold and i read that theo $1 win you get 10 points at the lowest level. so assume i coin in $500 in this machine that means i would get 625 points? Now assuming that is correct how much do i need in coin in @ each level?

    upgrade options:
    25,000k = Complimentary interior cabin 8 days = $2500 theo = $20,000coin in?
    35,000k= Complimentary oceanview cabin 8 days = $28k coin
    70,000k= Complimentary balcony cabin 14 days = $56k coin
    150,000k= Complimentary suite 14 days = $120k coin

    So for the first upgrade it's 20kcoin for purple cards, 13.3k for gold and 10kcoin in for platinum?

    Am i doing this right?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  2. Nittany1

    Nittany1 VIP Whale

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    In my opinion, you will be much better off pricing discount cruise sites.
    Depending on your travel dates you can probably find a ocean view or balcony cabin on Carnival for $100 pp/day or less.Interior cabins are probably $900 for 2 people seven days
    The risk and reward are way off with the VP upgrade offer .
    None of this counts what you will spend in Vegas.
    Buy the cruise and save the points.
     
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  3. Royal Flusher

    Royal Flusher Savvy Gambler

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    $1 Theo gets you 10 points.
    With a 12.5% hold, a dollar coin in yields 12.5 cents theo. $2 gets you 25 cents theo. $8 gets you $1 theo. So it's $8 coin in for 10 points.

    So that's $0.80 coin in per point. $500 coin in gets you 625 points. 25000 points x $0.80 = $20,000 coin in.

    $20,000 coin in at 12.5% hold is $1,750 loss.

    So it's gonna cost you $1,750 for 25,000 points. Unless you are lucky.

    I did this drunk, so somebody check my math. :beer:
     
  4. ducc

    ducc Low-Roller

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    Same thing i came up with except that 20k coin in would cost $2500 instead of $1750. Just couldn't believe what i was seeing. For $2500 i can get a great 7 day cruise and have spending money left over. As nittanny1 said this promo just isn't worth it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2017
  5. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    Sorry to be a Debbie Downer... but a 12.5% hold does not mean they keep 12.5% and you get the rest. You can easily put $3,000 into a slot machine and walk away with nothing. I have done it.

    I have also put $700 into a slot and got a $7,000 W2-g. Did that last weekend.
     
  6. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    This seems like a comp chase. It could turn into something very ugly.
    I would not do it.
     
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  7. ducc

    ducc Low-Roller

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    Completely understand. just an average over the life of a machine.
     
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