V/P Cruise offer need some math expertise

Ok as mentioned in another thread I got a cruise offer. Not as juicy as my last offer as 25k in points maxed out the offer. It is a Complimentary interior cabin for two on a Carnival Cruise Line sailing ranging from 4-7-days in duration. Destinations include Caribb, Mex, Bahamas, Can-NE.

upgrade options:
25,000k = Complimentary interior cabin 8 days
35,000k= Complimentary oceanview cabin 8 days
70,000k= Complimentary balcony cabin 14 days
150,000k= Complimentary suite 14 days

Assuming i'm playing pennies with a 12.5% hold and i read that theo $1 win you get 10 points at the lowest level. so assume i coin in $500 in this machine that means i would get 625 points? Now assuming that is correct how much do i need in coin in @ each level?

upgrade options:
25,000k = Complimentary interior cabin 8 days = $2500 theo = $20,000coin in?
35,000k= Complimentary oceanview cabin 8 days = $28k coin
70,000k= Complimentary balcony cabin 14 days = $56k coin
150,000k= Complimentary suite 14 days = $120k coin

So for the first upgrade it's 20kcoin for purple cards, 13.3k for gold and 10kcoin in for platinum?

Am i doing this right?

 

In my opinion, you will be much better off pricing discount cruise sites.
Depending on your travel dates you can probably find a ocean view or balcony cabin on Carnival for $100 pp/day or less.Interior cabins are probably $900 for 2 people seven days
The risk and reward are way off with the VP upgrade offer .
None of this counts what you will spend in Vegas.
Buy the cruise and save the points.

 

$1 Theo gets you 10 points.
With a 12.5% hold, a dollar coin in yields 12.5 cents theo. $2 gets you 25 cents theo. $8 gets you $1 theo. So it's $8 coin in for 10 points.

So that's $0.80 coin in per point. $500 coin in gets you 625 points. 25000 points x $0.80 = $20,000 coin in.

$20,000 coin in at 12.5% hold is $1,750 loss.

So it's gonna cost you $1,750 for 25,000 points. Unless you are lucky.

I did this drunk, so somebody check my math.

 

Same thing i came up with except that 20k coin in would cost $2500 instead of $1750. Just couldn't believe what i was seeing. For $2500 i can get a great 7 day cruise and have spending money left over. As nittanny1 said this promo just isn't worth it.

 

Sorry to be a Debbie Downer... but a 12.5% hold does not mean they keep 12.5% and you get the rest. You can easily put $3,000 into a slot machine and walk away with nothing. I have done it.

I have also put $700 into a slot and got a $7,000 W2-g. Did that last weekend.

 

This seems like a comp chase. It could turn into something very ugly.
I would not do it.

 

Completely understand. just an average over the life of a machine.