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Unexplained trends at the table

Discussion in 'The Poker Room' started by TRN, May 12, 2017.

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  1. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I doubt there is any math, science, or general logic to these, but weird things I see after playing a lot of live poker:
    • How often two people in the same hand get AA vs KK
    • How often you see an A on the flop when you get KK or similar
    • How there seem to be 1 or 2 hot cards in the deck - like sometimes you'll notice every board has queens or nines on it (or any card) - and this goes on for a long period of time
    • Sort of related to above - how there seems to be 1 or 2 hot seats at the table for an extended period of time - the lucky players in those seats just can't seem to miss getting good hands and connecting with the board
    • How you get good cards in clusters - fold for an hour straight, then wake up to 3-5 great hands in a row - then back to folding for another hour... repeat
    • When my opponent slow plays me, it works for them 105% of the time... when I slow play my opponent, I get counterfeited 105% of the time :)
     
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  2. loonytoony

    loonytoony VIP Whale

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    My last WSOP circuit event in Cherokee it was a $365 turbo double stack 20 min blinds but 20k in chips. I was down to a little over 14k in chips at level 12 200/600/1200. Three hands in a row I get AK then KK then JJ . After those three hands I had over $250k in chips. I was like about time after folding what seemed like 95% of my hands prior to that run.
     
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  3. booker

    booker VIP Whale

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    And … 90% of the time when I play AQ, a K comes on the flop. I think that I've lost more with AQ than any other hand.
     
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  4. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    Yeah good points, another one of those dealer hot card trends I see is a dealer who loves to flop 3 of the same suit. Everyone chases, the good hands are folding, it really changes the dynamic when it happens one time, nonetheless when you get a dealer who can do it every other flop.
     
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  5. georgesken

    georgesken Low-Roller

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    Its called variance...

    You Will hardly ever See j-3 vs 84 go to A showdown. AA vs KK is usually a preflop or flop allin situation. So you have the impression you SEE these hands more often.
     
  6. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I get it... perception > reality though... seems like I am running into that daily... but I get what you're saying.

    By the way if you know the person who is getting in J3 or 84 all in preflop, please point me in their direction so I can book a flight immediately. :)
     
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  7. sabre

    sabre Low-Roller

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    Math explains every single one of these things ...
     
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  8. georgesken

    georgesken Low-Roller

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    Also people tend to remember the hands they lost which they should have won because they were a preflop favourite. If you have KK preflop and you win the hand, you Will easily forget About that hand because it was NORMAL you win the hand. But you remember the ones where you have KK andnthe A on the flop Gets you into trouble. Again perception.if you would have statistics About all your KK hands you'll See that you win the majority of those hands.
     
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  9. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    Can you explain without writing a book? I'd love to learn. I get where statistics and variance in general comes into play (to a degree) but am no expert on this part.
     
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  10. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I definitely wasn't starting this thread to get into arguments about these - more of a humorous thread about all these facepalms and frustrations we seem to go through at the tables. "unexplained" was a stretch...

    I'd still like learn the math side of these if it can be explained to normal-brained people like me :)
     
  11. georgesken

    georgesken Low-Roller

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    Math behind your second point:

    We are in the hand with KK and we have no knowledge of anyone else's cards

    There are 50 cards left in the deck (52 - our 2-card hand) and there are 4 aces left in the deck. So there are 46 cards not Aces.

    P(Ace)= 1 - P(Not Ace) = 1- (46/50).(45/49).(44/48) = 1- 0.774 = 22.5% or 1 in 4.4
     
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  12. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Except that KK raises / 3 bets pre flop almost always. And hands that call raises and 3 bets skew far more to holdings which have aces. So instead of the hands faced being part of the random unknown cards, they have a higher chance of being aces than the rest of the deck, thus reducing the odds on the flop.

    Plus, 22.5% of the time isn't really "often".

    The reasons for these trend observations are psychological, not mathematical. Stuff randomly happens, humans innately look for patterns, and beats like Kings vs Aces or Ace high flops with Kings are far more memorable, so while those Kings that won the blinds or a cbet fade into the background, you remember all those tough spots Kings put you in.

    All sorts of short term variances will occur in the cards that come up. Noticing them is good fun, as long as you don't project them into the future.
     
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  13. georgesken

    georgesken Low-Roller

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    Math behind your first point:

    In a 10 handed game when you have KK the other players are dealt from a 50 card deck with 4 aces. The chance for AA then to a random hand is 4*3/50/49=0.49%.

    So roughly you can say that each player has that chance to get dealt AA. Therefore the chance at least one AA exists out there and you face it is ;
    1-(1-0.0049)^9=4.3%.
     
  14. mikewolf13

    mikewolf13 Low-Roller

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    If you hake KK there are 4 aces and 50 unknown cards. The odds the first card of the flop not being an ace is 46/50 . The second one 45/49 and the third 44/48. The odds of all three occurring would be (46/50)*(45/49)*(44/48) or about 77.4% of the time.

    So at least one ace will turn up 22.6% on the flop of the time.
     
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  15. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    In Video Poker it always seems the card(s) you wanted turn up in the next hand..Selective memory maybe,but don't deal me the Jack of Clubs next hand when dealt 4 to a Royal and need that card then!
     
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  16. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    In live poker it's called Flop-Lag and it definitely needs to be on my list!!!
     
  17. ken2v

    ken2v 200,000 and counting

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    We all find explainable patterns in the chaos. They're crap, of course, but if not, we'd not do half the stuff we do as humans.
     
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  18. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    Sage wisdom applicable to any facet of life :)
     
  19. booker

    booker VIP Whale

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    One trip I played poker and spent a few days at the Red Rock. Within two hours I got all my money in pre-flop with AA vs. KK. In both cases a different woman flopped a K and felted me. The next afternoon …

    I get all of my money in pre-flop holding KK against AA. I flopped a K. My opponent was at my table the previous night when I got felted.

    BTW, I certainly understood the intended humor.
    On one hand I agree with ken2v. On the other hand, it's all about how the universe conspires against me. :poker:
     
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