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To hedge or not....

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Shoot2Win, May 22, 2018.

  1. Shoot2Win

    Shoot2Win Tourist

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    So there’s that $50 future ticket betting VGK winning the Stanley Cup profiting $25K floating around the internet. Would you let it ride or hedge?
     
  2. bu$hman

    bu$hman Guppie trying to become a whale

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    Let It Ride! They are playing hot. They are rested. It's a phenomenal story. Kind of like Leicester City winning the Premiership a couple of years back. Awesome.
     
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  3. saintpauljeff

    saintpauljeff VIP Whale

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    without a doubt, hedge

    you bank the win when the opportunity presents itself, such as VGK making the final 2
     
  4. h0und10

    h0und10 Low-Roller

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    no need to hedge now.. Might as well wait until they get down in the series to start hedging
     
  5. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    A gambling mentor of mine who just recently passed always said 'You have the casino by the balls' so hedge it some.Don't walk away with no quid! He would be loving this story as he was with the football result posted above.He was from Liverpool and came to the US after a horserace bet paid his fare over post WW11. Cheers Ronnie!
     
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  6. saintpauljeff

    saintpauljeff VIP Whale

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    when VGK get down? that could end up being a much more expensive hedge; one of the books on Twitter mentioned that if WSH wins game 7 they'll be underdog to VGK, and I'd bet the dog right away adding to it a little if the Knights get up in the series 2-0

    great advice, I echoed the same sentiment above, albeit not as colorful :)
     
  7. ripper

    ripper Low-Roller

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    Hedge!! Bank a win.
     
  8. QuaDxAceZ

    QuaDxAceZ Mirage #1 Fan

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    caps and lightning are in a tough tough series, VGK is gonna be rested and ready to roll. they win the cup in 5 or 6 games. NO HEDGE!
     
  9. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    Half a loaf is better than none. Hedge the bet.
     
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  10. MiamiDave

    MiamiDave You Can't Handle the Truth

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    I don't think the answer is so simple here, really.

    If I'm betting $50 to win $500, do I hedge if I get the chance at some point to guarantee a win of $200? No.
    If I'm betting $50 to win $5,000, do I hedge if I get the chance at some point to guarantee a win of $2,000? Probably not, but I might hedge to guarantee at least a $500 or $1,000 win.
    If I'm betting $50 to win $50,000, do I hedge if I get the chance at some point to guarantee a win of $20,000? Probably, yes.

    With that said, everyone's break point is different. It's not about being smart, it's about whether losing the possible hedge money you could have gained instead of letting it ride hurts. If it hurts, hedge. If it doesn't hurt, let it ride, because in the end your hedge really only financially benefits the casino because they pick up more vig.
     
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  11. ripper

    ripper Low-Roller

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    Sure. If you are a rich guy you likely let it ride. For a person that 12,500 is likely the biggest win in their career then i hedge. If they come in as the favorite you will likely guarantee a 12500 pay day. Win the hedge and put it all on red!
     
  12. Dos Ochos

    Dos Ochos Newbie

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    Usually if I’ve got the value I like to let it ride but the position here is extraordinary. What I know about Ice Hockey you could write on a pinhead but given the opponent will be likely favourite I would be throwing six thousand to hedge on the opponent to guarantee a decent win either way and still be on the knights for a jackpot if they come thru.

    As my old dad told me a thousand times “ You can’t eat Value Son”
     
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  13. hail2skins

    hail2skins High-Roller

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    Series doesn't start until Monday, so both teams should be well rested.
     
  14. alanleroy

    alanleroy Click my avatar

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    I say let it ride. It's not my money.
     
  15. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    Hedge to maximize the guaranteed win

    (Hedge Amount) = $25,000/(Hedge Odds + 1)
     
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  16. Rush

    Rush In Time-Out

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    For me, a hedge might be $5,000 the other way.

    Walk away with $5,000 or $20,000.

    (Don't forget about the tax man if you win the $25,000!!!)
     
  17. charlestfuller

    charlestfuller Low-Roller

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    Hedging something would be the correct play, especially since VGK will likely be the betting favorite in the Stanley Cup.
     
  18. DeMoN2318

    DeMoN2318 The DERS

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    This is a really good point. Do taxable wins in sports betting carry the same threshold as table games? (more than $600 on a bet of 300:1 odds or worse)
     
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  19. Its Only Money

    Its Only Money VIP Whale

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    All wins are taxable, not just those in which you receive a W2G. I believe the casinos reporting requirements are the same if it’s a sports bet or a table game.
     
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  20. Its Only Money

    Its Only Money VIP Whale

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    To answer the question about hedging, I feel like @Rush and would hedge a small amount.
     
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