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The Dirty Dozen & The Great Escape Oct 3 - 15

Discussion in 'Vegas Trip Reports' started by Chuck2009x, Oct 3, 2020.

  1. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Yes, it said:
    To better align member experiences at all M life Rewards destinations nationwide, we will standardize the way we calculate Express Comps earned playing slots. Beginning October 1,Express Comps will be calculated based on time played, average bet, and game type. This method is currently used to calculate Express Comps earned playing slots at MGM National Harbor, Borgata, and MGM Springfield. Additionally, this method is used to calculate Express Comps earned playing Table Games at Beau Rivage, Gold Strike, Borgata, MGM Grand Detroit, MGM National Harbor, and MGM Springfield.

    To me, that implies theo, but it doesn't tie it explicitly to a rate.

    So I went over this morning and played some Davinci on a .01 / .02 / .05 machine. I played nickel denom. I'm assuming the theo at a nickel is the same as a penny, but if it's different, it's probably not much different.

    I did $600 coin-in, I earned 200 base points, I'm now Gold, so with the 20% bonus, I ended up with 240 actual points. And I got $2.40 in ECs, same as it used to be.

    I don't know what the theo is on the Davinci at a nickel, and I don't know what it is on the $5 denom DD. But I can say the $5 DD machine only earned ECs at about half the rate.

    Is the theo of the $5 machine half of the nickel machine? I suppose it's plausible. I'd expect the nickel machine to be about 15%. I'd expect the $5 machine theo to be higher than 7.5%, but maybe it isn't.

    Final actual points for the trip (some at 10% bonus and some at 20% bonus) was 9,177. So the old way, I would have earned $91.77 in ECs. Instead, I earned $54.69. That's from a blend of coin in of about 90% $5 denom, 7.5% quarter denom and 2.5% nickel denom.

    I probably should go run a little through at $25 denom at see what happens, but that'll have to wait until next time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  2. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Yes, at Vdara. I'm digging the setup with the fridge and the nuke, makes it easier to camp out. Room is fine. I haven't stayed at Aria in 4 - 5 years, but I'd definitely stay here over Aria itself in the future. Depends whether this trip gets me out of resort-fee land. I got three nights comped and paying only $40/night for the other three, but I gotta pay resort fees on all six, it all adds up. I picked Vdara/Aria over Bally's once I got here and saw that Aria had more machines I consider playable.

    If I end up getting offers with 4 nights here with no resort fees, it'll pretty much put them back on equal footing with CET in my rotation.

    2 minute walk over to the Aria north entrance. Connects to Bellagio via a walkway under the tram station, it's about a 4 - 5 min walk to the Bellagio front desk. Can get to Cosmo by going down a set of stairs and up the sidewalk, also about 4- 5 mins.
     
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  3. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    I can believe the $5 machine's hold is half of nickel machine.
    Not 15% vs 7.5%, more like 12% vs 6%.
     
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  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah, I agree. He's not playing at Sheldon's Rip-Off Palace anymore with those EC numbers.

    In the last 12 months the holds have looked like this for major strip casinos (>$72M annual revenue)

    1c 11.66%
    5c 8.05%
    25c 10.56%
    $5 5.54%

    Also for June-August machines have been actually look like this. They actually were a decent amount looser!

    1c 10.36%
    5c 6.12%
    25c 9.02%
    $5 5.01%

    Now keep in mind these are the numbers for single denomination machines ONLY.

    So that nickel number in particular is misleading because those either are likely going to be very old school video slots or video poker machines. Both with lower holds than normal.

    But the most common nickel video slot will be placed in the multi-denomination category. But I would expect its hold to be much closer to the penny/quarter numbers vs. the $5 numbers.

    So yeah 12% vs. 6% could be about right imo. Since there will be a deviation in the numbers due to VP play. But most VP machines are multi-denomination, which helps boosts that separate category up the most.
     
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  5. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    12% for a nickel or penny sounds reasonable. 6% on a $5 denom is possible, but it would surprise me a little. A while back, KS from Cosmo posted the payback table for one of his multi-denom machines to show that he set it for a lower theo for a higher denom (no idea what machine)

    7.53% for the lower two denoms
    5.97% for the higher two denoms

    upload_2020-10-14_13-24-28.png

    My guess at the time was that the denoms were probably $10 / $25 / $50 / $100 (or higher).
    But I dunno, maybe it was $1 / $2 / $5 / $10
    Might even be a machine that could be set to 4 denoms but actually only uses 2.

    I think about the original MLife wording in terms of theo, but when you think about all the different possible variations of theo across different types of machines at the same denom, it could be as simple as the earning rate is determined by denom, not theo. That would still fit within the description.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  6. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    I believe the $10 and up denom machines are all about the same.
    In fact, my instincts would say a $100 machine is even tighter than a $5/$10 machine, probably not much, but not looser.
    So I would think the table is for $1/$2/$5/$10, which is very reasonable for $5 at 6%.
     
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  7. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    exactly.
    But in any case, it is still a big cut (in earning rates) compared to the old ones, which just used three categories: regular slots, specialty slots, VP.
     
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  8. 625LORI

    625LORI Tourist

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    I truly wish I understood how that all plays out. I don't have a clue how to figure out the coin-in like everyone posts about. i shove my money in and play. I'm probably the stupidest when it comes to trying to calculating what my e.c. should be. I leave it up to the machine.

    Is there a simple way to do this?
     
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  9. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Mlife and Cosmo have coin-in as part of their Win-Loss statements on their websites. They update pretty much as soon as you finish a session.

    If you want to track it while you play and you don't have access to the websites, you have to track it yourself at a machine. Some machines show scrolling point totals at the bottom that update as you go along. Otherwise, most will display it when you start playing; when you're done and cash out, put your card back in and see what the new total is and do the math.

    CET's Win-Loss statements don't show coin-in, you 100% have to track it yourself.

    You also have to know if you're getting a tier multiplier or whatever. It takes a bit of work to do it on the fly, it requires a pocket protector.

    As long as the card reader slot is displaying green while you play, you don't really need to worry about whether they're calculating it correctly.
     
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  10. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I went over and did three (losing) $25 spins on DD in the Aria HL room. $25 was the lowest denom on the machine.

    $75 coin in, 25 base points plus 20% tier bonus equals 30 points. I got 14 cents in ECs. My prior tracking isn't enough for that to resolve the theo vs denom question, but it looks like at $5 denom or higher, it's safe to say you're only getting about half of what you used to in LV.

    I'll have to set up a more controlled experiment next trip and play different machines at the same denom.

    After blowing the $75, finishing the trip + $20. :D

    And the year (26 nights) + $1,634.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  11. JulianC

    JulianC Amateur

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    Almost a year ago, I figured out that EC earning for Mlife is purely based on theo. It might be worth porting this topic over to a new thread in the Comps forum. A collab, perhaps?

    My current estimates for EC earning are 2.8% of theo for the Vegas market (and only 1.4% of theo on "specialty" slots -- with your recent data points seeming to suggest that some of the higher-limit slots might be in that category), and 9.6% of theo at MGM Springfield. However, I haven't been to Springfield in nearly a year and last played at MGM properties in Vegas last Christmas. I am overdue to collect more data ERRRR dump a ton of money.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2020
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  12. JulianC

    JulianC Amateur

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    When I played at Bellagio and Aria last December, the numbers were making a lot of sense when counting base ECs earned as 2.8% of theo (though it is possible that this could be 2.77, 2.78, or 2.79 percent of theo).

    $2.40 in ECs after the bonus would be $2.00 in base ECs. $2 / .028 = $71.428571 (we'll call it $71.43) theo. $71.43 / $600 = .11905. I think that 12% hold would be reasonable for a multi-denom DaVinci Diamonds machine like the one you were playing.

    Working with 12% hold to solve for ECs... $600 * .12 = $72 theo. $72 * .028 = $2.016 ($2.02) base ECs -- within 2 cents of what you earned. $2 / $72 = .027777

    I am going to once again presume that $0.14 ECs was after the 20% bonus, and that this would have been $0.11667 ($0.12) in base ECs. The small sample size makes for less precision here, but let's try anyway -- and not rounding the base ECs to the nearest cent (because we need all the precision we can get). Remembering that this one could count as a "specialty" slot... $0.11667 / .014 = $8.3336 ($8.33) theo. $8.33 / $75 = .1111.

    Hmm. 11.11% looks like a nice round-ish number for the hold percentage, but that seems just a bit high on a $25 denom machine. Let's try that as a "regular" slot.

    $0.11667 / .028 = $4.1668 ($4.17) theo. $4.17 / $75 = 0.0556.

    Which would make more sense for the hold for $25 denom Double Diamond -- 5, 6, or 12 percent? (If it's 12 percent, that would be a travesty.)

    Let's try 6 percent hold. $75 * .06 = $4.50 theo. $4.50 * .028 = $0.126 base ECs.

    Let's try 5 percent hold. $75 * .05 = $3.75 theo. $3.75 * .028 = $0.105 base ECs.

    And that is how you get a very close estimate of the machine hold for any slot machine at any MGM casino in Vegas.
     
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  13. JulianC

    JulianC Amateur

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    I'd say it requires having a slide rule and knowing how to use it. (I am a mere amateur. I actually do have a slide rule app on my mobile, but I don't really know how to use it.)

    For sure, the casino tracks everything down to the tiniest fraction of a cent.
     
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  14. JulianC

    JulianC Amateur

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    What you are showing here are the points and ECs after the 10% bonus -- unless you indeed meticulously tracked your base points and ECs while you were playing. $6425 of coin-in, if on "regular" slots ($3 coin-in per point), would generate 2141.667 base points. There is no way you could have generated 2299 base points from $6425 coin-in. After your Pearl 10% bonus, that $6425 of slot coin-in would make for 2355.833 points -- more than you actually got. (If you had 2299 base points, your 10% bonus would have bumped that up to 2528.9 points.) This means that some of your slot play counted as "specialty" and it definitely was not the $5 Double Diamond machine.

    By my calculations, you did 96.554% of your coin-in that day on regular slots, and the remaining 3.4464% on specialty slots. $6203.57 vs. $221.43. If all of your "regular" slot play was on $5 DD, with that machine having a 6% hold; and if the remaining slot play was on "specialty" slots with a $12% hold; the amount of post-bonus ECs you actually earned would be within 6 cents of what I estimate you would have earned (I would be 6 cents short).
     
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  15. 625LORI

    625LORI Tourist

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    Thanks for the information. I'll have to keep my eye on the MLife machines
     
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  16. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Yeah I agree when I looked at the numbers after the first day, I wasn't including the tier bonus properly. Further complicating later calculations was that I crossed over from Pearl to Gold during the second or third day. I knew I wasn't going to be able to be precise in trying to pin down the earning rate.

    I only played 5 machines:
    $5 DD
    $1 Triple Diamond for 10 mins waiting for Cleo II to get freed up
    Cleo II
    Davinci
    $25 DD

    Not a penny in any other machine.

    I don't think any of those are specialty slots. I haven't checked my Mlife credit card to see if any happened to post from that - they only post when the billing cycle completes and I don't think that coincided with the first day. It's possible I mis-transcribed my starting points from the website. I occasionally see small apparent discrepancies among some of the numbers reported on the website. Sometimes I figure them out and sometimes I don't.
     
  17. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    I think you're better suited for it, my curiosity is mostly satisfied at this point :D I mainly just track coin-in, I took a crack at ECs was just because I knew there had been some change. I remembered you had done earlier calcs but I didn't go back and look for it.

    I think your calcs are probably as precise as you can get without actually knowing exact theo.

    Speaking of which, if the consensus is that 6% is a reasonable estimate for $5 DD, then what to make of what I saw at V/P the last time I stayed there - they say they give points based on theo and I found (ran exactly $100 through each machine). This was 3 years ago.

    Simpsons penny: 14.5% (seems reasonable)
    $5 DD (not multi-denom): 12.5% (seems wildly high)

    Do you think V/P really has a $5 DD set to 12.5%, or do you think they're just giving points as if it was?
     
  18. JulianC

    JulianC Amateur

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    I wouldn't put it past them to have that game super-tight. From my trip in August, I clocked the following games at V/P and their hold percentages...
    • OG Cleo -- 15.2% (though this was one of those larger-format cabinets with the comfy bench)
    • Duo Fu Grand (an older Fu Babies game) -- 20%
    • 3-coin Top Dollar (multi-denom, $0.25 denom minimum) -- 12.5%
    • 2-coin Top Dollar (multi-denom, $1 denom minimum) -- 25% (the highest allowed by Nevada state law)
    I would have had a bigger sample size on those games, but they were vacuuming up my money way too fast.
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2020
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  19. JeJas

    JeJas VIP Whale

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    For V/P, it's possible the former, but probably more lean to the latter. V/P tend to reward the higher rollers better,
    so they give more points to high denom machines. It's plausible.

    But similar game at Bellagio, you have to kill me to believe it's 12.5% hold instead of the more probable 6% hold.
     
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  20. Flowers

    Flowers VIP Whale

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    This thread has been super informative. I had always heard, on decent authority from folks in the industry, that V/P slot machines were tight, even relative to the rest of the strip, including Wynncore. What has been shared certainly supports that.
     
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