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Slots The current state of slots in Vegas

Discussion in 'Slots' started by Grid, May 16, 2017.

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  1. Grid

    Grid Well-Known Member

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    I was checking the UNLV website and picking apart some stats. I have been going to Vegas for almost 20 years now. I remember when I could gamble all day on $300.

    Sure, the casino environment has changed. In the late 90's I'd sit on a 3 or 5 credit quarter machine. Those, and their dollar brothers, made up most of the casino floors. Video terminals were just coming into their own.

    But it seems like I have been losing more, and doing so much faster, over the past few years.

    Take a look at the 2017 holds. This is current as of 2 weeks ago. So they had a third of the year in the books already. I have never seen holds increase this fast year over last before.

    And Downtown is pulling the same thing.

    2016 had Downtown paying back 93% on average. If YTD holds, that will now be reduced to almost 91%. A far cry from 94% just 10 years ago.

    2016 had the strip paying back just over 92%. If YTD holds it will be less than 91%.

    Everyone that said the machines will pay better on Fremont USED to be correct. But now it is just more of the same. Same goes for NLV, Laughlin, Boulder (shocked by this) and a few others.

    On the plus side, Reno continues to be among the fairest in the nation.


    [​IMG]
     
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  2. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    . . .and your point is? "Things" get progressively more expensive as time goes on, and the casino industry is not immune to that.

    But seriously, look at all of the mega resorts being built . . . where do you think that the revenue came from to build these?

    As stated in another thread. people come to Las Vegas because it's Las Vegas. Have you been to Reno lately?? 35-40 years ago, Reno was the place to go if you lived in NoCal. Now, I only go there when I need to "double dip" at Harrahs Lake Tahoe and Harrahs Reno or refresh my CET RCs.

    Gambling is a negative expectation game. For me, "making my money last" and maybe having a winning trip are my main concerns.
     
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  3. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    The point is that things are getting worse - and quicker.

    I know we are backing off on trips.
     
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  4. Ty

    Ty ?

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    That's the point I took from the OP.
     
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  5. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Those jumps in the first 5 columns are huge (almost 2 basis points for all of them except the Strip and Laughlin). Hard to explain away. If that 2017 row does include 4 months worth of data, then there's no way it's just variance. Either play has shifted to high hold machines, or they raised the holds.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
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  6. Grid

    Grid Well-Known Member

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    ... and the point of your comment is? What does the machine holds in Vegas have to do with things being more expensive overall? If gas goes up so should the hold on a slot machine? I get the old adage that Vegas wasn't built on winners, but that has nothing to do with the current trend of rapidly increasing holds. Just looking at the 2016 and 2017 numbers on the strip are jarring.

    And please tell me about all of these Mega Resorts being built. The last big resort to actually be built was Cosmo, and that was back in 2010. There is currently 1, yes 1 resort on the strip that might actually be built. That's Resorts world and that doesn't have much going for it right now. IF that does open in 2019 it would be nearly 10 years between major resorts opening. So explain that revenue stream you speak of...

    As for it being mentioned in another thread about people coming to Vegas because its Vegas, that was me you are quoting. And it has absolutely nothing to do with the slot holds increasing this fast. All it does is show that people will visit no matter what. But to the savvy gamblers on here, I thought I would share this little snippet.

    I honestly have no idea what point you are trying to make.


    Thanks for understanding this thread!
     
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  7. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    The point is "why complain about things that you have no control over".

    If you think that gambling is not a wise use of your money, then don't gamble. . . .

    Whining and moaning about the hold rates increasing won't change things.

    The only thing that you have control over is whether or not you choose to play.

    Didn't mean to make you mad . . . . .:(
     
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  8. Grid

    Grid Well-Known Member

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    I didn't think I was complaining, did it read like that? I was just pointing out that it seemed like I was losing more money at a faster rate, and stated some facts as to why. If others felt the same way, seeing the holds jump this fast would explain why.

    I never intended to, nor could I ever control the situation. Again, I have no idea what you are reading into my thread. But your assertions on me and my thoughts are simply wrong.

    I just dont see the parallels you are drawing. Gambling is never a wise use of money, but it is entertainment money that I budget for. But that has nothing to do with this thread. Are you just trying to bait me into something?

    I'm not "complaining" I'm not "whining" I'm not "moaning" about anything. I didn't create a thread saying "This is why I stopped gambling" I created a thread showing the increase in slot holds over the years and the surge between 2016 and now. I thought my fellow gamblers would gain some knowledge about the current rate of slot holds in NV by seeing this.

    If you dont see the value in my thread, stop reading it. You certainly are not contributing to the discussion. It seems like you are just looking for a way to make me "mad".

    I, for one, found it interesting that in 2017 Downtown & the Strip both reported nearly the same holds. With Fremont jumping from a 7% hold to a nearly a 9% hold in less than a year. It's a crazy stat to throw out there. That's an increase take for the house of 25%. That is less money being returned to you.
     
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  9. Geogran

    Geogran Whooo. Whooo.

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    Have been going to Vegas almost 17 years now. Strictly from a slot play perspective, I've noticed a big difference in the last 2-3 years that my slot bankroll doesn't come close to yielding anything even close to previous years although my slot play hadn't changed. I've written a lot of it off to the newer high volatility video slots. As an old fashioned lover of three reel slots and my 'patterns' of payouts over the years on select groups of slots I play, it's been painfully obvious something also changed across the board in regards to dollar and five dollar three reel slots that I play.

    I expect losses, but seeing these stats puts into perspective what I suspected had happened. Thank goodness it's not entirely attributal to my devolving degeneracy :haha:.

    Thanks @Grid and @Chuck2009x for these stats and comments.
    Geogran
     
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  10. letsgotovegas

    letsgotovegas VIP Whale

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    Interesting statistics!

    I kind of agree with you, but I'm also kind of thinking that 4 months is kind of short term??? Or maybe that's just wishful thinking??? :confused:

    We have been seriously thinking about going to Reno next year. It's been a loooong time since we were there and it sounds like it might be time for a re-visit!
     
  11. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    The former has to be a big part of it. People go goofy over heavily themed multiscreen lcd extravaganza penny slots.
     
  12. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Certain table games like baccarat can have big swings when comparing one 3 month period to another. Steve Wynn has discussed this from time to time on his company's earnings conference calls.

    But for slot machines, 4 months is a big enough sample to judge that there's a change. The change in the numbers is just too big to be chance. If you go back and look at records historically, a 0.5% change from period to period is even kind of big. So 2% is huge. I mean, there could be some other explanation, but I don't know what.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
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  13. dmr

    dmr Registered Abuser

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    Quite a spike in 2017 so far!
     
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  14. letsgotovegas

    letsgotovegas VIP Whale

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    You are probably right. That is a huge swing. I've been playing more video poker these days anyway, but I do enjoy a slot machine, especially if you can string together a few fun bonuses.
     
  15. Grid

    Grid Well-Known Member

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    Chuck nailed it, 4 months complete is a lot of time to see a trend develop. Anything can happen month to month, a major progressive could be hit or such, but that really wouldn't effect things. I think Clark County slot revenue is something insane, like half a billion dollars per month. With a larger majority of that being on the strip. So the numbers reflected in the UNLV report are on probably $2BIL in revenue.

    I too have thought about Reno, it is such a pain in the ass to get to from Chicago. Direct flights are double that of getting to vegas. And only a handful of planes fly there. I thought about flying to Vegas and driving to Reno. But 7+ hours each way means I'm too lazy for that. I could fly to Vegas and then fly to Reno, but that seems like way too much work LOL
     
  16. stackinchips

    stackinchips VIP Whale

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    You're putting way too much into this irrational thought process. Do you really think that Reno (or anywhere else in the world) is going to give you even a remotely similar experience to Vegas? Furthermore, if you really want to reduce your exposure to the house edge (to the point you're considering a different destination) stop playing slots, or better yet quit gambling altogether. You've found the whole reason why most of this doesn't matter (in a round about way). Even with increased holds on slots, worse table game rules, resort fees, paid parking, and whatever other ways the casinos have looked to increase revenue at the expense of visitors, Vegas is still far and away one of the best value destinations you can find for a vacation. Flights are plentiful and cheaper than most destinations (no matter where you're coming from), hotels are still about 20-30 cents on the dollar compared to comparable properties in other metros (and that's if you're paying rack rate), and there is a ton of things to see and do that don't cost a dime. There's a breaking point in there somewhere, but there simply isn't a better value alternative available.

    As for the increased hold, it's probably more to do with the new machines being rolled out. So many of them are licensed, and the licensed ones tend to be more popular. The more play shifting to those means the hold goes up. I also think that many of the people who didn't like pennies before because they couldn't understand the lines and how they paid, have now been forced to learn because the quarter 3-reels are disappearing. So a lot of the play is shifting from those old three reels to higher hold video slots.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
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  17. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    When you look at the areas that had the biggest jumps, they're mostly off-strip. It seems less likely to me that casinos anywhere are raising holds across the board for all types of slots. So more high-hold machines is the explanation that makes the most sense to me. And I don;t know what the size of those off-strip casinos typically are or how many total machines they have, but IF they have fewer overall machines per geo area than the strip, then swapping in higher hold machines would have a greater effect.
     
  18. Grid

    Grid Well-Known Member

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    Excuse me? How do you know my thought process? I just mentioned I have thought about going to Reno simply due to the better slot odds. I never said I wont go to Vegas since they keep upping the holds. Reno is not Vegas, I never said anything even remotely like that. Not in this thread, and never in life.

    Where are you coming up with this? This thread is speaking directly of slot holds in Vegas, it has nothing to do with Vegas being a superior destination. If I didn't love Vegas, why would I have my own website dedicated to it? Why would I be so active on these boards? We are talking about 2 completely different things.

    And if the math has to do with new machine sucking more, that just feeds into my topic of the current state of slots in Vegas. The machines aint what they used to be. But for that to be the reason why, Reno and everywhere else (they all have the newest games) should be increasing as well at the same rate. And that just isn't happening everywhere.

    But I don't think the dynamic in machines are causing the rapid increase in slot holds. It's not like we just started having licensed slots in first quarter of 2017 LOL. Vegas has been tightening up the machines for years, I just wanted to point out that they are doing so at a higher rate more recently.

    Getting back on topic, since you strayed so far from it for whatever reason.

    Why do a few points in "hold" matter? What does it mean to the average slot player?

    I'll break out the April returns for the strip, and for fun I'll compare them to Reno.

    Penny games on the Strip & Downtown paid back roughly 88%

    Penny games in Reno & Sparks paid back roughly 94%

    That 88% payback is a loss of $12.00 for every $100 of coin gambled through. Its only a $6.00 in loss, to match, in Reno/Sparks. That’s half the loss or twice the time on device!

    A $500 a day bankroll in Vegas is equal to a $1K bankroll in Reno.

    Does that mean Vegas sucks? No, Vegas is awesome! But, to a gambler, that current higher slot hold means a kick in your wallet compared to other places in state. Does that mean no one should go to Vegas? Nope, Vegas is many things to many people. I just wanted to show the increased hold and make my fellow gamblers aware.

    Can anything happen in the short term? Yes! You can win at even the shittest casinos! I'm just showing averages... Not more, nothing less. Dont turn this thread into something it isn't. If you don't care that the gaming odds keep decreasing for the player, fine. I know it sucks but I still play there. I just have to adjust my bankroll, and my expectations accordingly.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
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  19. stackinchips

    stackinchips VIP Whale

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    Wow, I'm not sure why you're so offended. You laid out your thought process, it's right in the quote! 'Thought about going to Reno instead... Flights are double.... Only a few carriers fly there...". My interpretation of that (and I don't think I'm jumping to any conclusions here..) is that you had considered going to Reno instead because of a lower hold on the slots. My response was simply that there's a reason for that, and it's because Reno ain't Vegas, and despite all the increased fees, deteriorating gambling rules, and everything else, Vegas is still IMO (and the vast majority of others as well as evidence by visitation numbers), one of the better values going for a vacation destination. While I can appreciate that your bankroll goes further in Reno or other places, I'm looking for the whole package. The same way that I don't care if I can play the best BJ rules or full pay VP at some dump casino on the outskirts of the valley, I'm not going there instead of Bellagio.

    My post wasn't meant to offend, simply point out to others some things that are lost in the agonizing over increased holds, fees, 6:5 BJ, etc. Even with those costs, it's still cheaper to go to Vegas than an equivalent trip nearly anywhere else in the country for comparable amenities. People worry about small increases and forget about the cheap and plentiful flights, ridiculously cheap hotels, and all the free/cheap things Vegas offers.
     
  20. luckydude

    luckydude Low-Roller

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    Grid thanks for this thread. I couldn't agree with you more about how much faster my daily bankroll is disappearing when I play slots in Vegas. I have been to Vegas 50+ times since 1978 and as you can imagine I have seen a lot of changes . I like most of the changes such as better accommodations, better food, better pools etc. The change that I don't like is what Vegas is doing to gambling. Do you remember when each bank of slot machines used to have a payback percentage over them. Those disappearing probably has to do with with the increasing hold percentages because they don't want to put it out there for everybody to see. It was always hard enough to win but at least you felt like there was a chance to have a winning trip. My wife and I like going to Vegas too much to stop going but we are definitely changing how we do Vegas because of the changes in gambling. Room and food comps used to be no problem before but now we would rather pay casino rate for the room, get some express comps and resort credits and gamble less. At least this way you feel like you are getting something for your money and you don't feel taken advantage of. I also like to play black jack and as you know they screwed that up too.
     
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