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Super Contest 2015

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by broncofn, Sep 10, 2015.

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  1. Letter_E

    Letter_E Low-Roller

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    One of the guys in our group is just putting $25 each on every team we pick that week. We went 4-1 last week, so he's looking savvy as hell (for week 1), anyway.
     
  2. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    2013 consensus picks were 8-22 out of the gate starting week 1. They were hitting 50% by mid season. I wouldn't bet on them but more power to you guys for following the hot hand.
     
  3. PayTriple

    PayTriple VIP Whale

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    Thanks for the info,
     
  4. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    ....
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2015
  5. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    Consensus for week 2:

    Pittsburgh - 608 selections

    Cincinnati - 499 selections

    Baltimore - 476 selections

    Arizona - 428 selections

    Tennessee - 414 selections

    Im on Pitt, Cin, Det, Dal, GB
     
  6. dfalk

    dfalk VIP Whale

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    https://fantasysupercontest.com Has a list off all the picks and winners from each week in 2014.
     
  7. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    Thats a great find dfalk.

    Consensus top 5 3-2 for week 2.
     
  8. PayTriple

    PayTriple VIP Whale

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  9. Butcherkris

    Butcherkris Newbie

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    Dave Tuley-ESPN Chalk

    After 108 of the record 1,727 entrants in this season's SuperContest went 5-0 against Westgate's contest lines in Week 1, just three (using the contest aliases of Team DHG, The Right Reasons and The RXers) were able to repeat the feat in Week 2, as they share the lead with 10 points (note: SuperContestants earn 1 point for a win and half a point for a push) 24 with 9 points and seven at 8.5.

    The first two leaders are unknown, but The Rxers are a group of forum members at therx.com, aka The Prescription, which was the first sports betting website I posted in around the turn of the century.

    It was a rough Week 2 for SuperContest players, as consensus plays went 7-9 against the spread on the 16-game card. And a week after all contestants combined to hit nearly 60 percent of all plays, the overall record in Week 2 was 4,215-4,410 (48.9 percent). After going 5-0 in Week 1, the top five most-selected teams were able to squeak out a 3-2 mark with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Arizona covering but Tennessee and Baltimore losing to drop the Top 5 consensus to 8-2 ATS (80 percent).

    EDITOR'S PICKS

    Nelson: Worst 'bad beats' of the weekend
    ESPN Chalk's Rob Nelson recaps the worst bad beats of the weekend, including a tough break for bettors who had the Miami Hurricanes covering the spread against Nebraska.

    Tuley: Eagles still top 10 in Vegas Rankings
    Which team is the NFL's best in Las Vegas' eyes? Dave Tuley and two Vegas handicappers give their power ratings for every NFL team heading into Week 3.
    I do find it funny that a lot of people are touting how great the SuperContest Top 5 is again. The Top 5 did go 49-35-1 ATS (58.3 percent) last year, but it was just two years ago that people were singing a whole different tune.

    In 2013, the Top 5 went 0-4-1 in Week 1; it was 2-12-1 (14.3 percent) after three weeks, went 2-3 in Week 4 to "improve" to 4-15-1 ATS (21.1 percent) and kept struggling until standing at 11-33-1 ATS (25 percent) after 11 weeks. People were ripping me on Twitter for posting the Top 5 every week even though the picks kept losing. The most common opinion was that with the SuperContest topping the 1,000 mark for the first time at 1,034 that there were too many squares in the field and that the consensus was now fade material.

    I'll say the same thing now that I said then. I'm not endorsing the use of the SuperContest consensus plays; I'm just reporting them, win or lose, and as you can see these things go in cycles (and I'm willing to bet that most people who said they were going to fade the SuperContest picks in 2013 ended up losing money -- the Top 5 did go 25-14-1 ATS, or 64.1 percent, the last six weeks of that season).

    Over the long run, the SuperContest Top 5 consensus picks have fared pretty well -- they are 183-154-13 ATS since the start of the 2011 season -- but should do better than the 52.4 percent needed to break even because the lines are set Wednesday and can be picked up to 11 a.m. PT Saturday, so a lot of people tailing the plays are often taking a worse number.
     
  10. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    If you're gonna tail you just have to be careful with the numbers. If anything crosses a 3, 7 or 0 try to find a line that has yet to move past one of those key numbers. Not ideal I know but that the price you pay for getting solid picks a little late.
     
  11. archie1959

    archie1959 VIP Whale

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    Do they take a game of the board for the contest due to an injury? Reason I ask is I saw Carolina -4.5. With the announcement that New Orleans has a QB change due to injury line was re established to -7
     
  12. reedy

    reedy Low-Roller

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    Lines are locked once released.
     
  13. PayTriple

    PayTriple VIP Whale

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    So the smart players will choose Carolina at -4.5? (Bronco are you paying attention?)
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2015
  14. broncofn

    broncofn VIP Whale

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    GO "F" yourself LOL
     
  15. PayTriple

    PayTriple VIP Whale

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    [emoji8]
     
  16. PayTriple

    PayTriple VIP Whale

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    OMG this is so much fun! I've been studying the 2014 results and there are so many fascinating ways to use this information besides tailing the leaders. For example, if you look at the bottom of the contest, you have players who are doing horribly, including one who is 0-10. So I'm thinking of starting to bet on his picks this week, and if he still has another losing week to Martingale. He has to have a winning week at some point, doesn't he? LOL!!
     
  17. FXT

    FXT VIP Whale

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    Week 3 consensus picks are out

    1 Carolina -4.5 By 713
    2 Indianapolis -3 By 637
    3 Buffalo +3 By 440
    4 Pittsburgh -1.5 By 439
    5 Baltimore -2.5 By 428
     
  18. Letter_E

    Letter_E Low-Roller

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    Week 3 Picks - GT Bangers

    PIT
    ATL
    ARI
    CIN
    DEN
     
  19. archie1959

    archie1959 VIP Whale

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    Week 4 consensus picks are out.
    1) Arizona -7 573 picks
    2) Carolina -3 542 picks
    3) G-Men +5 483 picks
    4) Jacksonville +9 403 picks
    5) Cincinnati -4 402 picks
     
  20. archie1959

    archie1959 VIP Whale

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    Week 5 consensus picks are out.
    1) Arizona -2.5 710 picks
    2) NE -8.5 642 picks
    3) Cincinnati -3 521 picks
    4) Houston -1 427 picks
    5) G-Men -7 427 picks
     
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