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Send $ to AM radio show for picks

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by leftcoast, Feb 15, 2017.

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  1. leftcoast

    leftcoast Low-Roller

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    They are on every Saturday AM telling you how you can WIN WIN Win. Has anyone ever had any experience with this? Sounds crazy to pay someone in advance to do work for you.:bang:
    Thanks for your replies.
     
  2. C0usineddie

    C0usineddie VIP Whale

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    My brother used to work for a sports book type thing where people would call in and get the pros picks like this. he was just a regular guy and would pick who he thought would win. No special skills or anything, just picked them at random and people paid him for it.
     
  3. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    These paid handicapping sites are known for scamming people..they always want to know how much you bet per game on first contact..and use that info later if they give you a correct pick..Buddy and I tried this in the late 80's..then a friend used an alias and got 2 different picks on the SAMEgame...So they hammer the winners for more expensive picks or reduce the pick price for the losers and keep on rolling..
    They lose half their customers but new ones come along..
     
  4. Auggie

    Auggie Dovahkiin

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    Its nice to think about, but you really have to ask: do they really have any better insight or knowledge that would make their picks better than yours?

    When my wife works Saturday mornings she has to get up at 4:45AM - I will get up with her and turn on ESPN radio. In the fall when there is college and NFL football going they have this guy on each week who is supposed to be some super genius sports bettor and has a company that sells picks to subscribers and during the football seasons he'll come on for a 20 minute segment where he'll talk about the games and give out some of his top picks.

    Long story short: with the NFL the guy was around 50% successful this past season and with college football he was right about 35% of the time.

    The way I look at is:
    With most sports the point spread and over/under are pretty well set with little "wiggle room" so that really means those bets are mostly just 50-50 propositions as to whether somebody will cover the spread or not or if the game total will go over or not.

    And then its what information is available to you: if you go to a website like oddshark.com you can pick your sport from the list and see the opening line for the game and current lines for a bunch of online sportsbooks and Las Vegas casinos.

    Again with the lines and over/under: the sportsbooks make their money on commissions, not on winning bets. They want their point spreads and over/under totals to be as accurate as possible so that half the action is one side and half is on the other and to that end they have teams of analysts making predictions, people scouring the news feeds for any game info and are running computer simulations over and over again.

    So it doesn't really matter where you heart is or what you or somebody else "feels" - if Team A is playing Team B and every sportsbook is saying Team A is the favorite then Team A is the favorite.


    But then that brings up the last point, which is: good teams still lose games.

    Since baseball season is coming up we'll use that as an example: in the modern era the two teams that have had the best records are the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees.

    The Mariners final totals that season were 116-46 and for the Yankees it was 114-48

    Those are both great records, but if you break them down they are 71% and 70% win rates respectively. That means despite being the best teams in the league those seasons they won about 7 out of 10 games... but on the flipside that also means that they lost 3 out of every 10 games.

    And thats with the best records. Typically the "best" teams only play around .550-.600, meaning that for every 20 games the best teams will still lose 8 or 9 games.


    So what all that means is:
    if you are betting point spreads or over/under if you have the latest odds from the sportsbooks you can just flip a coin and over the course of a season you'll probably have about the same success rate as the guys selling picks.
    If you are betting straight up for win/loss the biggest thing you have to watch here is that the favorite teams usually don't pay much when they win (because they are favorites) and yet they will still lose often enough so that just a couple of losses can wipe out weeks worth of winnings - depending on how heavily the team is favored to win it usually only takes one loss to erase three or four games worth of winnings.
     
  5. dfalk

    dfalk VIP Whale

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    This was exactly my case betting MLB last year.

    I bet on 356 games and went 188-168, or 52.8% win rate, and my average money line odds were -122. I wagered a total of $2,546 and lost a total of $158 dollars for the season. I'm just a casual fan and would get "tips" from guys for free on various forums or just go with my gut. For me it's all about the entertainment and having some money on a game makes it much more enjoyable win or lose. That $158 gave me waaaay more entertainment over 6 months than it ever would at a casino.
     
  6. wanker751

    wanker751 Dutch Rudder Enthusiast

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    This is the only hot line you need


     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2017
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  7. bighouse304

    bighouse304 Low-Roller

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    What about the "bookie killer Steve Stevens?!?!?!?!?!" About as useful as a bag of hammers....
     
  8. NCAAHoops

    NCAAHoops High-Roller

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    I will give you a free pick for tonight

    Take UNC. over. UVA

    Would be nice to be out there to put some action on this game.

    But as they say flip a coin and you will most likely get the same results
     
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