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Results of rating from 100x craps odds at Cromwell?

Discussion in 'Comps' started by notfromconcentrate, May 26, 2017.

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  1. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Connoisseur of dive casinos and obnoxious outfits

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    So, as I understand it, Cromwell is the only strip property in Vegas now that offers 100x odds on craps (and perhaps the only even remotely desirable property ever to do it, comparing it to Casino Royale).

    To the best of my knowledge, craps odds bets are not generally rated for purposes of comps, but CET is the exception to this. Having gone through various discussion threads on this subject, the "black box" here is how much weight CET puts on odds bets, in terms of determining your average bet - which will, in turn, dictate what you'll get in terms of comps.

    So, say I'm a $10 pass line bettor and taking 100x odds, for $1,000 in odds bets. Perhaps pressing two or three times for $20/$2,000 and $40/$4,000. While ordinary rating systems would probably not even have this action on their radar (since as far as they're concerned, I'd still be just a red chip player), I'm led to believe that this is a different story with CET.

    My question is this... suppose I could play four or so hours per day with wagers to this effect. What "class" of comps might I be in line for, if any? I realize $1,000 craps odds bets are treated very differently from $1,000 bets of other varieties. But I'd like to know what this might stand to yield, from a comps perspective.
     
  2. vegasdev

    vegasdev VIP Whale

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    I have never trusted the casino to rate people properly on table games. and with craps when you have so many bets going, plus odds, it would be difficult to do it accurately. now with bets as large as yours, I would just ask them. and that lets them know that YOU are paying attention.
     
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  3. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    You get zero comps on odds bets. If a place includes odds in your rating (and the box enters it properly in the system), all it does is make your average bet sound higher. Theo is theo is theo. Comps are based on theo, except in the unusual case where your actual loss is many multiples of your theo. And that would be on a trip by trip basis, wouldn't affect your future offers.
     
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  4. Lmarl72936

    Lmarl72936 Low-Roller

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    I agree with vegasdev! I only play craps, there HAS been times where I bet all night long (at least 4 hours) on the passline @ $50, $100 odds and have $108 - $216 across AND i always have a min of $10 on each hard way and the next day I look at my TR APP to see I only went up maybe 100TR.
    This has happened to me many times which sucks. Lately, I get the attention of the pit boss and tell him im going for diamond aspiration this year and to hook it up in a comical polite manner (through out my session i remind him/her) this has helped tremendously assuring that I get rated correctly.
     
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  5. DaiLun

    DaiLun R.C., L.C., and A.A.N.G.

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    I have to ask, there is very "little" increase in percentage win once you go past 4x or 5x odds. Is it really prudent to but $1000 behind $10 just to get a better rating? AFAIK, it's action (longevity) that the casino is looking for to rate you.

    Just asking . . .
     
    Another NGO trip. QQQQ/NYNY
  6. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Connoisseur of dive casinos and obnoxious outfits

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    I understand what you're saying, from the perspective of "it doesn't matter how much you're betting, it's the theoretical loss that they're looking at for the sake of comping you". A $25 blackjack player on a ~0.4% game would generate much less theo than a $1 slot player on an 8% machine, despite making bigger bets. We're on the same page in that respect, by all means.

    I guess what I'm getting at here is, do comps come any differently when playing at a higher denomination? A player who bets $5 or $10 a go is not going to make anybody's day when they might lose some amount in the hundreds in a losing session. But a losing session with $1,000 wagers and a total loss in the thousands or tens of thousands stands to represent a significant win for the casino. Of course, it could just as easily be a significant loss, especially when the edge is as low as it is taking 100x odds. But in the interest of attracting this kind of action, would it be treated any differently? Or would it just come down to whatever theo the computer formula spits out?
     
  7. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Connoisseur of dive casinos and obnoxious outfits

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    For full disclosure, craps is very new to me. I've played some simulations on Wizard of Odds. But in real life, I have barely so much as even peeked at a craps table, and haven't even placed a bet at one. So please excuse any ignorance of mine, as I am a true newbie.

    Perhaps I'm missing something in looking at the math here, but there is a pretty substantial drop in percentage house edge from 5x to 100x. I'm basing it on this chart from http://www.nextshooter.com/odds

    A combined $60 wager at 5x ($10 on the pass, $50 on the odds) has 0.326% house edge, or $0.1956 per roll. Taking that to $1,010 at 100x ($10 on the pass, $1,000 on the odds), the house edge is 0.021%, or $0.2121. So, you are correct that the dollar value expected loss is almost identical on 5x odds. But as I mentioned in my reply to Chuck2009x, what I'm trying to figure out is if there's any preferred treatment for the higher denominations of wagers, since a losing session will involve substantial sums, compared to the relatively small losses of a $10/5x craps shooter.
     

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  8. zoobrew

    zoobrew High-Roller

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    Honestly, casinos don't like whales. Almost all casino's are public companies and Wall Street favors consistent earnings and whales can disrupt this. It is another reason casino's are looking to get more revenue from more consistent sources like rooms/food/entertainment and SLOTS & SLOTS and SLOTS.
     
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  9. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Well, for illustration, let's up your $5 - $10 player to a $100 player.

    Player A bets $100 pass line and no odds
    Player B bets $100 pass line and $10,000 in odds. Or let's even say $10 on the line and $1,000 in odds

    They both generate the same theo (or player B is actually only generating 1/10th the theo in the alternate example)

    Is the casino going to look at Player B differently? Sure.
    1. He's willing to lose way more
    2. If they can get him to put the time in, he's GOING to lose way more
    3. But they are also going to do their best to try to steer him spend time on games with no free odds
    A guy like Player B, if he puts in the time, is not going to have to rely on what the computer generates for offers. He's gonna have a host, and the host can potentially comp him based on losses.

    But when you are talking about a $10 table with 3x-4x-5x odds, putting max odds out on all your bets, even if they count odds in the rating they quote to you, isn't going to make much difference in your offers or how the casino looks at you, unless you're very unlucky all the time.

    Most of what I wrote earlier was from the point of view of a 3x-4x-5x scenario and the notion that say, a $100 avg bet quote from a box man at CET because he's including odds is better than a $30 quote from MLife.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
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  10. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Let's break down odds vs no odds with a super-simplified example.

    Whether you put out odds or not, both theoretically and in my own experience, the longer you play, the more likely you are to finish close to break-even. I've had plenty of 1, 2, 3, 4 hour sessions where I basically ended up flat. I don't take odds that often, except at a $5 table.

    To get the super-simplified example, let's say two players on the same table for 1 hour. 100 hands. Point is always set on the first roll and is always 5. On half of the rolls, the point is made, on the other half, the seven comes. These are the only two outcomes.

    Player A bets $50 on the line.
    Player B bets $10 on the line and $40 in odds

    I'll use the 1.41% HA. And say comp value is 30% of theo.
    • Player A bet a total of $5,000 subject to the HA and generated $70.50 in theo, worth $21.15 in comps
    • He breaks even - half his bets he loses $50, half he nets $50
    • Player B bet a total of $1,000 subject to the HA and generated $14.10 in theo, worth $ 4.23 in comps
    • Player B lost $2,500 on the 50 rolls where the seven came. Minus $500 on the pass line and minus $2,000 on the odds.
    • But he ends up netting +$1,000 from the rolls where the point was made. On each of those winning rolls, he wins $10 on the passline, which offsets his pass line losses. He collects $60 on the odds (3:2), $40 of which offsets his odds losses and the remaining $20 is profit.
    • This is why the casino doesn't comp odds.
    Again, this is super-simplified to simulate a session where the point gets made on half the shooters. You're not going to get 100 resolutions in an hour, it would probably take 4 hours. I've had plenty of 4 hour sessions betting pass line and two come bets with no odds, and broke even. Having the come bets complicates the calculation.

    Let's drop the percentage of points that get made to 40% instead of 50%. This is what the 3:2 odds paid on the 5 reflects - 4/36ths chance of a 5 vs 6/36ths of a 7.
    • Player A bet a total of $5,000 subject to the HA and generated $70.50 in theo, worth $21.15 in comps
    • He loses $200 - nets $400 on the 40 bets that win and loses $600 on the rest
    • Player B bet a total of $1,000 subject to the HA and generated $14.10 in theo, worth $ 4.23 in comps
    • Player B lost $3,000 on the 60 rolls where the seven came. Minus $600 on the pass line and minus $2,400 on the odds.
    • On the 40 winning rolls, he wins $400 on his pass line bets and $2,400 on his odds bets, so he also ends up minus $200 (he breaks even on his odds bets but loses $200 on his pass line bets, same as Player A).
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2017
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