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Table Games Question about "spontaneous card counting" in blackjack

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Bluegrass527, Dec 3, 2019.

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  1. Bluegrass527

    Bluegrass527 Tourist

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    Please let me know if this is against the rules of this forum, but I was playing blackjack somewhat recently with a continuous auto-shuffler, where, hand after hand, cards with a value of 10 were being dealt. I realize there are 6-8 decks in most blackjack games (I was playing in Atlantic City), but, even then, that would mean there are 30-40 cards worth 10 or more.

    After 8 or so hands, I would say there were approximately 20 high cards played. I had been having a very successful run. They were being fed into the auto-shuffler, but it occurred to me that the shoe had been depleted of high cards, and I questioned whether or not the auto-shuffler would really put them that far front in the deck, and if it would be best to stop playing for a while. But I wanted to keep playing, and thought the auto-shuffler would ensure that the 10's get redistributed. I asked the dealer to wait a little bit while I waited for a drink to arrive, and he kindly obliged. When we resumed, over the next 10 or so hands, my luck took a turn for the worse.

    While this is hardly a large sample size of data, I was wondering if other people have encountered these situations, and what they do. I'm not card counting perse, but it's hard not to notice when a lot of ten cards and aces get played in rapid succession, and even with 6-8 decks there are only so many of those cards. So what would you do in this situation? Without an auto-shuffler, I assume it's a good idea to leave the table for a little. With an auto-shuffler, does it matter?
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2019
  2. Ty

    Ty ?

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    Tagging so I can see the replies.
     
    Taking my nephew along
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  3. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty Doing retirement again and happily so....

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    With 6-8 decks there are 24-32 aces; 96-128 - 10 point valued cards. Out of 312 - 416 total cards. Same ratio as a single deck.
    I think it would be important to know the basic operation of the continuous shuffler. Are cards immediately reintroduced for shuffling? A pause? I don’t know.
    In my head :)confused:) I see a live keno machine with the bouncing balls and the “catch” tube for balls used in that game (or a bingo machine). Does the shuffler work the same way? Is there a reserve of 30 cards or so that are refreshed after a pause in pulling cards for 15 seconds or so (something less than time determined to calculate wins and losses for a table and payout/collect chips) while the other 100’s of cards are continuously shuffled? IDK.
    lit would seem to me if speed of the game were the best reason for the use of the shuffler (and randomness), it would seem like a shuffler similar to the Let it Ride game would be utilized, Hopefully someone will chime in that has knowledge of the inner workings of a continuous shuffler.
     
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  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Card counting is worthless in a continuous auto-shuffler. The deck is basically reshuffled every hand.
     
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  5. Bluegrass527

    Bluegrass527 Tourist

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    I’ve seen images of the internal of a continuous shuffler, it’s like it fans the cards out and sticks cards in as though it’s flipping through the pages of book. I just wonder what’s the closest to the front of the deck that the discard from the last hand could be placed.
     
  6. Bluegrass527

    Bluegrass527 Tourist

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    You’re right, I was forgetting about the different suites. Sorry about that.

    Nonetheless, I do wonder, in sort of unusual circumstances where there’s an unusually large spate of high cards played, should someone leave the table for a more representative set of cards having been played? I guess often seats at a blackjack table are in short supply so that makes it even less practical to seek a table with better expected value.
     
  7. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Assuming the CSM is working the way it's supposed to, no. Honestly, for non-counters a CSM is better than a shoe!
     
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  8. Breeze147

    Breeze147 Button Man

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    Statistical anomaly.
     
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  9. mbely1000

    mbely1000 Low-Roller

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    Seems to me that you were correct in stating that the sample size was too small. Auto shufflers were invented precisely because they could not be exploited like dealers and hand shuffles can be. So I would lean towards your experience just being variance.
     
  10. hail2skins

    hail2skins VIP Whale

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    I never play CSM games. But if you encountered the same situation in a non-CSM game, and if there are others playing at the table, you can request to sit out for a few hands until the card flow is more to your liking.
     
  11. Southpaw33

    Southpaw33 Low-Roller

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    I’ve always looked at the continuous shuffler as the devil. The casinos didn’t introduce it for our advantage. But if tring says it is just as good as a normal shoe then I trust him. I just don’t like them.
     
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  12. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola VIP Whale

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    Yeah, I don’t like them either because it eliminates the possibility of exploiting a high true count. On the other hand you don’t run into those deep negative counts that seem to get worse with each round dealt. Counters definitely prefer hand shuffled games so they can adjust their bet size to the count.

    As @tringlomane mentioned a CSM really doesn’t affect the non counter because you’re theoretically playing at a neutral count on every round dealt.
     
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  13. greekjim

    greekjim VIP Whale

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    upload_2019-12-3_21-36-23.gif
     
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  14. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Connoisseur of dive casinos and obnoxious outfits

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    The short answer to your question is, the information you observed DOES make a difference in the context of card counting.

    The long answer to your question is, it isn't worth it.

    Take the three-ish minutes to watch the video I've linked below by Blackjack Apprenticeship, which explains this very well. You can see the chart with the math at 2:12. For those who won't go to the effort of watching... your EV is $2.17 per hour if you're spreading $5 to $500. Which, to most casinos, would appear suspicious as hell if you're consistently not losing.

    For further reading, here's an interesting old thread from BlackjackInfo, in which a member describes his exploits with CSMs in 1987. It's got some great detail, and it is definitely worth reading about to see how this was once done back in the day. But it seems the CSM machines are far more sophisticated now: https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/beating-csms.941/

     
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  15. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    The biggest advantage of the CSM for the casino is to prevent counters from getting an advantage AND the hands per hour rate goes up. But for a rec player, the house edge per hand does slightly go down.
     
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  16. boxofbirds

    boxofbirds Royal Flushless

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    Agree with most of the above. Only thing I'll add is that if you are a recreational player, and you are playing a non-CSM game, especially Single or Double Deck, and you see a large amount of small cards being dealt, then maybe you could throw a little more money on your bet in hopes that the next few hands will have more high cards (AKA you have a small advantage). And vice versa, if you see a ton of 10s and/or Aces get dealt over a few hands, then maybe it's time to take a bathroom break or lower your bet to table minimum as you will statistically encounter more small cards (AKA you are at a disadvantage).

    But keep in mind, even the most skilled counters who know exactly how high the count is and bet accordingly can still get dealt losing hands!

    When I'm playing blackjack and I have a matchplay or freebet chip I will wait until I see a lot of small cards dealt and use them on the next hand... so far it has worked well, but maybe I just got lucky :rolleyes:
     
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  17. Southpaw33

    Southpaw33 Low-Roller

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    That is proper thinking and makes sense the only downside is the dealer also has a chance to make a good hand as well when cards are in your favor. I have the same thought when I see that happen and then the Dealer ends up getting the paint:(
     
  18. notfromconcentrate

    notfromconcentrate Connoisseur of dive casinos and obnoxious outfits

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    Yes, naturally they do have a chance to make a good hand. But when the cards are in your favour, the math dictates you'll win more units than they do ON AVERAGE over a massive sample size... between regular wins, getting paid 3:2 on blackjacks which will happen more frequently, and winning on double-downs since you're more likely to get a paint on an 11 total.

    Anyone who has played enough blackjack will know that gut-wrenching feeling when you put out a big bet (whether based on a hunch or based on a good count) and the dealer pulls an unbelievable hand. It's bound to happen no matter what.

    When counting, you can't let those hands faze you. As long as you play correctly every time, it will result in a long-term win if you stick to it.
     
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  19. Southpaw33

    Southpaw33 Low-Roller

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    Agreed, I play a lot of blackjack so seen it all. It just makes it that much more frustrating when you feel like you have the advantage in the count, you up your bet, and then Dealer sweeps the table lol.
     
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  20. killswamper23

    killswamper23 Low-Roller

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    Not only do counters still get losing hands,they still lose more hands than they win
    The edge comes from getting more blackjacks and winnings more double downs

    A world class card counter could maybe get a 2% edge over the casino,and still will have a ton of losing sessions.

    People have the incorrect perception due to some terrible movies that make it seem like card counters just win every time and print money.This is far from the case.
     
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