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Table Games Prediction for Table Limits Post 100% Capacity

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Idahoskidog, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. boxofbirds

    boxofbirds Royal Flushless

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    FYI John Mehaffey, who runs Vegas Advantage website and does very reliable surveys of limits and gambling rules, is doing another survey today and finding that a lot of the minimums have dropped one unit since the last survey in December. ($25 tables now $15, $15 now $10) Still higher than pre-pandemic, but sounds like things are getting better!

    https://twitter.com/John_Mehaffey/status/1400501268490047491?s=20

    Just got back from Vegas myself, things were definitely higher than my trip in January 2020, but not too insane. Still found $5 Craps and Blackjack at Downtown Grand and Ellis Island. The worst I saw was $15 craps at El Cortez during the daytime. Not that $15 is really that high, but at El Cortez!?!? :blink:
     
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  2. hail2skins

    hail2skins VIP Whale

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    Yeah, Mehaffey going thru property by property and mentioned that TI had 3/2 blackjack at $15 today. Everyplace else, according to him, is at least $25 for 3/2.
     
  3. jcooper911

    jcooper911 Low-Roller

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  4. SH0CK

    SH0CK Stylin' and Profilin' Quasi Tech Admin

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    Brutal? Did they delete something?
    Maybe I'm wrong here, but if they are still advertising it, wouldn't the gaming commission have an issue with them not honoring the current signage on the building?:hmmm:
     
  5. Tutontow

    Tutontow Low-Roller

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    IMHO once everything is wide open IOW 7 seats at a table and the frenzy dies down, the casinos are going to become aware of two things. Number 1) there aren't enough people who, for any number of reasons, will not or cannot, play 25 dollar and up blackjack. Number 2) they are going to become painfully aware that the ten and fifteen dollar players kept people employed and actually generated revenue for your hotel, restaurants and lounges besides the two and three hundred dollars they left at the tables a couple of times a day. For the next several months Vegas will be slammed but mark my words when the frenzy dies down we will see things go back to pre covid ways.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2021
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  6. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    Finally Waking from the nightmare!
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  7. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola El Jefe

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    Wow, scroll down a few tweets and check out the video of the idiot who filled up the bed of his pickup truck with gasoline. Loved seeing it spill all over the street as he drove off.....

    :kill::kill::kill::kill::kill:
     
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  8. jcooper911

    jcooper911 Low-Roller

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    maybe lost in translation - i was using brutal as a substitute for tone deaf lol. just an awfully dumb response to not the main issue with John's tweet
     
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  9. Idahoskidog

    Idahoskidog Tourist

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    Vegas is in flux right now. If you have visited in the last 6 months or so everything is different yet there is enough of the pre-COVID Vegas to make a trip worthwhile.

    We have visited twice in the last few months and plan another trip in two weeks... yep we’re a 6+ trips to Vegas/year folks like many (thanks SWA non stops from GEG).

    While I am THANKFUL that my favorite escape city is roaring back, I admittedly am WAY PISSED that Vegas has become MEGA GREEDY (more than their normal greedy), now with restorations of parking fees and their unjustified RIDICULOUSLY high table limits.

    Don’t get me wrong, I love all things Vegas, but have one gripe about GREEDY strip and downtown casino operators now that restrictions have been eliminated: your ridiculously high table limits! This has become the talk of every LV blog, message board, and discussion board like vegasmessageboard.com.

    COVID required the limits to double or triple as only half or less gamers could gather around a table. With the restrictions now off, reduce the damn limits! We are seeing a migration of vacation players (and dollars) from big strip and downtown casinos to locals casinos like Jerry’s and Ellis Island et al, and many are now doing what I now do - gamble at home at our lower limit Indian casinos.

    It’s laughable watching the thousands of would-be players strolling through Vegas casinos today passing by myriad empty tables with idle dealers who are twiddling their thumbs because limits are so high.

    Vegas is great for so many things, but Vegas GREED has quickly RUINED the very joy of gambling for most us recreational players.

    New LV city motto: CITY OF GREED

    As Vegas migrates towards the elimination of LABOR-INTENSIVE table games it ruins the whole experience for me... the socialization of sitting at a blackjack table or a lively craps table. The Vegas idea seems to be AUTOMATION and ELIMINATION of employees resulting in the transition we are seeing towards BORING video like games like the automated (boring as hell craps game). I’m sorry slot/VP players, but there is more to life than sitting in front of a damn screen for hours... isn’t that what you tell your kids and grand kids. Gambling is about craps, cards, and wheels IMO. AND Vegas is ruining it and losing market share just like Vegas has lost share in sports gambling.

    True but sad.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2021
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  10. Johnny Bollocks

    Johnny Bollocks Tourist

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    Comes right after Sandman Enter, if memory serves.
     
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  11. hail2skins

    hail2skins VIP Whale

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  12. stlguy197239

    stlguy197239 VIP Whale

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    For all the hand wringing over $10 or $15 craps being the baseline now, let's take a moment to note that casinos are moving more and more roulette tables to horrid 000 tables. Minimums are minimums and will change over time of day and week but 000 tables are here to stay and that should kill that game dead.
     
    I hope things are normal by then
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  13. hail2skins

    hail2skins VIP Whale

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    I have noted several times in various threads that rules changes like 6/5 and 000 are more bothersome than higher minimums.

    But the introduction of crapless craps tables at numerous Strip casinos (most MGM-owned ones) means that dice isn't immune to this trend either.
     
  14. NittyOne

    NittyOne VIP Whale

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    damn I use to balk at El Cortez unless it was $3. Was shocked the first time I saw red chips on the pass line felt.
     
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  15. stlguy197239

    stlguy197239 VIP Whale

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    I have noted before that I don't think the majority of people gambling in Vegas know/care about 6:5 versus 3:2, they only look at the table minimums on BJ 85% of the time to decide where they want to play. And most people avoid craps because they think it's too 'hard' to understand so crapless versus regular is something they don't care about. But, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that one more number on the wheel means less chance for you to hit the number you bet on.
     
    I hope things are normal by then
  16. Mythcalbst

    Mythcalbst Tourist

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    Speaking as someone who has less funds for gambling than many posters here, I would much rather have a $5 min 6:5 than a $25 3:2. When I sit down for a session of blackjack, I usually play with $100. Lose that and I will move on. Blackjack to me often feels like a rollercoaster of ups and downs. If I sat down at a $25 table and started on the downward side, I would be done in 4 hands. I like blackjack because I can usually sit and play for awhile even if I end up losing in the end. For my upcoming 4th of July trip, I will have about $500 a day for gambling. My goal is even if I am not doing well, make sure I have some money to play with for each of the three days I am there. I find 6:5 annoying, but often don't see enough blackjacks for it to make that much of a difference. And on a $5 table, the extra usually goes out as a bet for the dealer a couple of hands later anyway.
     
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  17. Tutontow

    Tutontow Low-Roller

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    You bring up some good points. IMHO people that play 5 and 10 dollar blackjack are just looking to hang on and have a good time. If you get on a fun table and have a couple of comped drinks it is just icing on the cake. Before we play 6:5 BJ we will just go to bartop VP and play at the quarter level. We like to play BJ using the anti martingale system and at the 25 dollar level you can get up to black chip bets in a hurry. Get paid$120.00 vs $150.00 on a BJ would sting to much for me to stick around.
     
  18. topcard

    topcard Vegas Has Re-Opened!

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    OK...I'm going to give you an alternative view on this, but ride along with me on this for a minute:
    1. 500 hands at 6:5 means about 25 blackjacks, paying you $6 on your $5 bet, winning $150, using a $500 bankroll.
    2. 100 hands at 6:5 & $5 = 1/5 of that, or a win of $30 on the 5 blackjacks you get. But you can afford 5 such sessions, so see #1 above.
    2. 100 hands at 3:2 means about 5 blackjacks, paying you $37.50 on your $25 bet, winning $187.50, using a $500 bankroll. Downside is you're felted if your first session is a losing one.

    But, with everything else being equal, you do make $157.50 more per 100 hands betting green chips, using the same $500 bankroll you use for your $5 6:5 game.

    Now, you do indeed have to survive variance. Buying in at a $25 table with $100 is nearly blackjack suicide.

    Use the 20-hand rule, which appears to be what you're using with $5 tables. Buy in for 20x your base bet... in this case, $500.

    My point is that, risking the same amount of daily bankroll, your potential 3:2 wins are $7.50 more per blackjack vs 6:5... 3 times per hour. The rest of you play should, over time, come out about the same.

    Let's assume a 0.5% house advantage, with blackjack payout being the only difference, playing 210 hands (10 blackjacks).
    210 $5 hands at 6:5 = loss of $5.25, plus a win of $60 for your 10 blackjacks. Net = +$54.75
    210 $25 hands at 3:2 = loss of $26.25, plus a win of $375 for your 10 blackjacks. Net = +$348.75

    You can divide the number hands & the difference in net-gain, down to whatever you wish... the results will be the same.
    105 $5 hands = $27.38 net. 105 $25 hands = $174.38 net.
    21 $5 hands = $5.48 net. 21 $25 hands = $34.88 net.
    $25 3:2 is always better than $5 6:5, assuming the same daily bankroll & otherwise the same house edge & table rules.

    Now, obviously, my math above is not accurate because "blackjack payouts" are always factored in to a table's "house edge"... but the point remains true - your wins will be higher or losses will be lower, playing a 3:2 $25 game versus a $5 6:5 game, assuming you risk the same amount of bankroll.
     
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  19. Mythcalbst

    Mythcalbst Tourist

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    One problem with your math is assuming that I have a $500 bankroll for blackjack. That is for the day, preferably spread out over the day, not all at once. Which is why I usually go with $100 before moving on. It is not based on the number of hands, it is the same for a 5 or 10 table. I also like playing 3 Card Poker and Let It Ride. Have also been trying UTH at the local casino, so may give that a try. I used to joke that I would win at blackjack so I could go lose it at Let It Ride. Might even try a few other things this trip.

    If it gets late in the day and I am even or up so that I can try that without dipping into the next day's gambling funds, maybe I will give it a try. Don't want to risk getting into a situation where it is early in the day and I am done for the day. Or even worse, find myself with a day to go and already done.
     
  20. Tutontow

    Tutontow Low-Roller

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    Much like you my wife and I allow $750.00 each per day which is a little better that $500.00 but not much. On our upcoming Vegas trip I see a lot of trips to off strip properties for BJ and 25 cent VP. I have been learning Bonus Poker and I play 5 hands at a time. At least I can spend time drinking at the bartops and also build up some points on my Cosmo and Mlife cards. I have had trips where I run out of my days budget by noon and it sucked.
     
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