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NFL Week Two Bets

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Sep 14, 2021.

  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    First off, I adjusted my power ratings based on the week one results. Here are my current top and bottom teams:

    Top Five: Rams, Seahawks, Bucs, Bills, Niners and Saints (tie)
    Bottom Five: Lions, Texans, Jets, Bengals, Jags

    KC dropped out of my top five because their defense was worse than expected. They can't keep relying on the big play comeback to win week in and week out. I suspect they will crawl back into my top five soon, but they are not there right now. As for the bottom, the raiders were lucky and erratic last night, but they still improved in my ratings and the Jags (not surprisingly) fell. Welcome back to your home in the cellar, Jags

    I am still working on my wagers for the weekend. I will go ahead and say my model says DC should win by 4 on Thursday night, but I won't be betting anything on that game for two reasons. First, despite their abyssmal performance in week one, my model still has the Giants rating exactly the same headed into week two. I thought they would drop a little and it has me doubting the model. So I don't want to back them. As for DC, one of my NFL betting rules is not to bet on teams with a backup QB starting (at least for the first few weeks if the backup has become the new starter). They are usually the backup for a reason (suckitude) but at the same time they can sometimes surprise an opposing defense because there is not a lot of film on them (as the same backup did to the Bucs in the playoffs last year). I just don't see a compelling reason to wager the first game this week other than crippling gambling addiction.
     
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  2. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    Where is the love for Arizona?! Haha.

    Mind sharing some thoughts on the niners? What has you so high on them?
     
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  3. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I like Zona. But that division is really tough.

    I like the Niners mainly because of the defense and coaching. I am not as down on Jimmy G as some people. He's never going to be a top five QB. But he has always been above average. When healthy (which has been a problem his whole career) he has played fine. Now you add Lance as an additional situational weapon, an offense that seems to be able to plug and play any running back, and a couple receivers I like (Deebo and Kittle). Add a really good defense that was held back by injuries last season, and you have a team that can compete for a championship. Remember, this team was one or two thros away from winning the Super Bowl two years ago before last season was lost to injuries.

    I had them toward the top of my second tier of teams before Week One. But I liked what they did (albeit against Detroit) enough to move them into my top tier. I don't expect the Saints to last in my top five for the entire season, but the Niners have the potential to stay up there. I think whichever team in the NFC has homefield advantage is the likely champion this season. The top AFC teams have more flaws, IMO, than the top NFC teams this year
     
  4. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Right now, I think there a lot of undervalued dogs heading into week 2. Like, more dogs I like than any NFL week I can remember. I assume some of those lines will get even better as squares bet the favs. So hopefully I can whittle it down to a handful of my absolute favorites in the next couple days
     
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  5. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    Last year Saf Fran's 5 most important defensive pieces were Fred Warner, Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Jason Verret and DC Robert Saleh. Sherman left the team followed by Saleh and now the other starting CB tore his ACL. 3 of their 5 most important pieces are now gone I think the public perception is that SF is elite but I personally don't buy that. I think they've got real defensive concerns
     
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  6. Zeromus-X

    Zeromus-X Faux-High Roller

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    I’m not sure I can think straight after that Raiders win so I’m probably sitting this week out, though I did make a couple absurd parlays for a unit each “just because”. Not even posting them here since they are as good as random picks.
     
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  7. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I disagree about Sherman being important to the defense last year (two years ago, I would have agreed). As for Saleh, I often think too much is made out of losing coordinators. I guess we will find out over the next month. With the speed and gameplan Philly demonstrated this past weekend, the Niners now face four straight teams that have the potential to put up a lot of points. Its their hardest stretch of the season and then it eases up for them after the bye week.
     
  8. zoobrew

    zoobrew VIP Whale

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    Hey don't forget about them Lions, 33 points is a respectable # of points on any given weekend:) Even if most of them were during garbage time.

    I know you like underdogs and 10.5 points are a lot, but do you think the Packers will be able to put a world of hurt on the Lions considering last week's egg and the game being a prime time game?
     
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  9. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I think Green Bay wins by 9. I might put them in a moneyline parlay, but I don't plan on betting that line
     
  10. gadgets19

    gadgets19 High-Roller

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    For the uneducated/non-researched pick
    I went with CIN moneyline +126

    Pros
    I am a Joe Burrow believer
    I actually like CIN offence
    They are playing the BEARS!

    Cons
    @ Soldier Field
    CHI defence should be better than Week 1
    Andy Dalton revenge game
    CIN defence couldn't hold 10 point lead

    Just couldn't wrap my head around CIN being underdogs to CHI
     
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  11. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    My first wager of week two is in: Jets +6. I'm as shocked as you are, lol. Seriously, I think this game is a Patriots victory by a field goal. I liked the line when it opened at +5.5, but I wasn't willing to bet it because the idea of a rookie QB on a bad team makes me nervous. But at +6, I have a little more margin of error. Plus, even though he played decent in week one, the Pats are starting a rookie QB also. Jones will have up and downs this season. Just hoping this weekend is one of the downs. Against a defensive minded team and coach, I think its possible. I think NY cuts the lead to less than a TD with a late score
     
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  12. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    Fair enough UK! The things I value most when it comes to handicapping NFL are continuity and coaching. I just locked in a 6 unit play on the eagles +3.5. It seems everyone is dismissing their 32/6 victory over the falcons as the falcons being awful. The fact is, however, that the eagles are a much improved team. Hurts had a full off-season to practice with the offense, the o line is far improved being healthy for once, and I believe this to be a much improved coaching staff.
     
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  13. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    If you read my TR with my initial season wagers, you know I am not high on the Eagles. But any intelligent gambler (and, generally, person in life) is best served by keeping an open mind regarding their assumptions and conclusions when presented with new data or evidence. I am not sold on the Eagles entirely yet and expect regression against beter teams, but I do think they will be better than I initially rated them. Hurts has his limitations. But the gameplan in week one wisely played to his strengths. I'm assuming you watched their game ad saw the same mistakes I did. But the mistakes were fewer than I anticipated. I actually like your wager and its one I am considering as well. My model rates the game somewhere between a one points Eagles victory and a three point Niners victory. Either of those results and anything in between is a Philly win by the spread. Good luck!
     
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  14. Zeromus-X

    Zeromus-X Faux-High Roller

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    Me, who only bets on NFL, made a couple prop bets that probably won't win today.

    Drunk Me, who is an idiot, apparently made a large bet on the Cardinals to win by 4+ at +600 earlier this week too. I must have thought it was a mistake or something and jumped on it.

    Turns out there's also a Cardinals in MLB! Which made me very happy this morning.
     
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  15. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    So I am headed to vegas this weekend and wanted my bets in before I leave on Friday. I went ahead and made the rest of them this afternoon because the lines on multiple games I was considering were moving against me. There will likely still be movement before Sunday, but I decided to go ahead and jump on the lines I like rather than waiting til tomorrow. So here goes:

    *Jets +6. I explained this one above

    *Panthers +3.5. At home, decent players on both sides of the ball. New Orleans coming off the emotion of the big game last week, plus now having to worry about covid running through their facility. I'm kind of surprised this line has not moved. I think the Saints win, but by no more than a field goal

    *Texans +12.5. That's a really big line. Plus, I've always liked Taylor. He's not going to win you a championship, but he has always been a steady starter. Before last week, I thought that wouldn't matter considering their dearth of talent at most positions. It also helped last week that the Jags were so shockingly unprepared. But I still think Taylor can lead them to a back door cover and the Browns end up winning by only 10.

    *Fins +3.5. I like a good home dog. The Fins were pretty much what I expected last week. They have talent on both sides, but a bad O line. Tua can scramble enough to make some plays behind a bad line and their defense keeps them in it. Bills are a better team, but the secondary is the strength of the Fins defense. I think its a close game. if I had more guts, I would take the Fins on the moneyline. But I'm not that confident in them. Still, probably my favorite pick for a dog to win outright this week

    *Steelers -5.5 and under 47. I spent a lot of time studying and thinking about this wager. The overall numbers tell me this is a very sharp line (the most likely result by my model is Steelers by 5). Despite that, I decided to wager it because the strongest part of the Steelers team (D line) gets to square off against the weakest part of the Raiders team (O line). When there is that much disparity in line play, it often leads to lopsided results. Add in the fact that the Steelers are at home, Raiders had one day less to prepare and the emotional exhaustion of that insane game on Monday, and the Steelers become my largest wager of the week. I also bet the under because the same analysis should mean not a lot of scoring from the Raiders and while I also don't really like the Vegas defense, the Steelers offense is going to be shaky all year. My gut says the final score will be something boring like 20 to 10.

    *Ravens +3.5 and over 56. Two small wagers here, mostly because I should be on my flight home starting about the second quarter and it will give me some action to detract from an otherwise boring flight, lol. I just don't like the KC defense. Until Mathieu is back at 100%, I think they are going to have consistent trouble stopping teams (he is so important to their defense). I see the final score being somewhere around 30 to 27. Usually that's too close to the line for me to want to wager, but like I said, boring flight.

    That's it. Go bet the opposite of my picks and get rich
     
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  16. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

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    Hey UK! You may have spoken about it earlier and I just can’t remember so my apologies if that is the case. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on buying points? For example, I bought the panthers up to 4. The reason being the line started at 3 and I’m getting a full points value for the cost of half a point essentially. For me I’ll typically only buy points in these situations and when it is a key number (3/4/6/7/10)
     
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  17. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Personally, I am not a fan, especially at football. I have bought the hook a couple times on basketball bets, but that's it. Even though I am betting to win, I am fine with a push. Buying a point isn't worth it to me
     
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  18. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Two addendums. I cancelled by Ravens wager. I realized wagering just because I would be bored on a flight is not the best reason, lol. Especially when I have a total on the game anyway. Since I cancelled it, i read some stuff that also has me re-thinking KC. So maybe I will still end up with a wager on that one, but not for now.

    Also, the wagering site gave me a free bet for tonight. So I bet under 7.5 points in the first quarter. Hey, its no risk and I only have to subject myself to fifteen minutes of the game lol
     
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  19. zoobrew

    zoobrew VIP Whale

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    Nice way to start the weekend with a winning free bet.
     
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  20. Mr. Scripps

    Mr. Scripps Low-Roller

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    Like KC in that game, Ravens appear to be limited on weapons. Also see KC offense being much stronger in the flats / downfield. Tough to cover Hill, Kelce, let alone the other options. Looking forward to this one.
     
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