Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Oct 12, 2021.
I cancelled my wager on the total in the Arizona game, but sprinkled in a few props tonight and in other games. Hoping for a lowish score tonight
So pretty happy with the first half of this Thursday night game. On my prop bets, I have three wins (Tamps first to 10, Tampa first to 20, and Hurts will throw an INT) and one loss (1H under). Still have one more prop to go in this game (Hurts under rushing yards). But watching that half reminds me how frustrated I am with my season long prop on Hurts' passing yards. This season he has played better than I expected, but my expectations were extremely low. I just can't understand how any defense allows him to get good passing stats. he is playing the same as he did for years in college. This team has added more screens and flair passes than he has thrown in the past (which is good; those plays have worked well for him this year). he can still hit an open short crossing route. But it feels the rest of the time he is slow to make a decision and will either scramble left and run, or scramble right and just chuck it. I'm probably going to lose my season prop because he throws enough of those awful bombs down the right sideline that some are being completed for big gains. But why are the Eagles playing him??? I guess Minshew isn't a better alternative, but at least he can make completions from the pocket and make quick decisions. I'm just frustrated watching Hurts because I feel like my analysis of his game are right, but I am probably still going to lose because he gets at least one of those bombs a game. Sigh
Argh! Lost that final prop bet on Hurst by half a yard! What is worse, the play before his last run, Sanders lost a yard. if he had just been stuffed (or better, scored) then Hurts would have been credited with one yard on that last TD run, not two. Oh well. That's gambling
Congrats @UKFanatic , I will see your answer tomorrow cause ,I am going to bed , Bucs IMO wanted to win, and move on , They are an offensive JUGGERNAUT take that to the bank, 11 weapons , Scotty Miller and Gronk were out tonight
But man I will take that offense over all in the NFL, there OLine is amazing, 5 receivers , 3 Rbs and 3 tight ends , there
defense is still meh , but by years end they will be fine , remember the SBowl, how they shut Kelce and Hill out , the front 7 are great ,Vea is the best Nose tacle in the game . I hope they stay healthy and we will talk in January and February , The Goat is beautiful to watch ( poetry in motion ) might win number 8 this year , we shall see , it is hard to repeat, but he was the last one to do it . Congrats pal.
Brady has been great this year (best he has played in at least four seasons) and you're right that they have a ton of weapons. Too many, for betting purposes. Each week I think about spreading a ton of prop bets taking the under on all the Bucs weapons (other than Brown, who has received consistent targets). Brady spreads it around so much to those weapons, one or maybe two players will hit the overs, but the rest don't get enough looks to pad their stats. They even gave more carries than usual to jones in the first half.
But that defense is a disaster. That might be too strong. Its not good. Their defense has to get better if they want to repeat. Interestingly, the performance of this team is virtually the opposite of last season, when the defense was pretty consistent and the offense was hit or miss (especially early in the season). Now, the offense is plowing along in every game, but you never know what you're going to get from the secondary from play to play! The Sherman injury does not look good and its not as though their secondary was good before that. They played a bad QB tonight who was off on his targets (DPI was the Eagles best offensive play lol). The Bucs are fortunate that they really only have one tough QB remaining on their schedule (Josh Allen; after him, Daniel Jones or Jameis Winston are probably the best QBs they have to play). So enjoy the regular season. They should finish with a big win number and a division title. But that defense will be fools gold if they can't figure out the secondary. In the playoffs, they will be seeing Stafford, Dak, Murray, or Rodgers. And I wouldn't use the super bowl as a comparison to give you hope. That game was all about the pass rush. They didn't really shut down Kelce, and Hill (and others) dropped passes Mahomes put right in their hands despite the insane pass rush. Your Bucs are a really good team that has one glaring, terrible flaw (along with taking too many penalties). Good teams will exploit that flaw
They could have easily scored 21 more points if he would have thrown in the second half , I don’t know why they kept running.oh well you are right on the penalties, they are in the secondary, they get Davis and Bunting back for the Bears game .But like you said , they will be there at the end , we will see if Bowles gets his boys in the right direction,
Random sports observation of the weekend: at the end of that Dolphins/Jags game, as players and coaches are running on the field after the winning kick, I heard the stadium speakers playing Sweet Home Alabama ... in London
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