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NFL Week Six Bets

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by UKFanatic, Oct 12, 2021.

  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Crazy game last night. Knocks the Ravens down a little in my ratings. Speaking of which, here are my weekly top and bottom with a few comments"

    Top Five: Buffalo, Dallas, Arizona, Rams, Tampa. No real surprises there. None of these teams are complete juggernauts, but they are playing the best of anyone through five weeks, especially Buffalo. Sunday night was the signature win they lacked thus far this year. Their defense is just tremendous and they finally got an above average game form the offense. I said before the season that if the defense showed up, they wouldn;t need Allen to play as well as last season (he isn't), but that they would have a real chance to win it all as long as he played better than the previous seasons (he is). With the dolphins falling apart and New England not living up to the preseason ype, the division is wide open and will result in some more easy wins for them. Playoff football in Buffalo is going to be rough on any visiting team.

    Bottom Five: Jest, Atlanta, Dolphins, Jacksonville, Detroit. I'm shocked the Dolphins have fallen so far. They were one of the few teams I wavered on in my preseason analysis. Ultimately, I rated them as likely to have double digit wins and competing for the division title. I also bet the over on their season win total (and thankfully cashed out at a much smaller loss a couple weeks ago). They just can't throw downfield and a defense, which looked promising before the season, has underwhelmed.

    As for wagers, my first look at the lines made me cringe. They look really sharp. But going to dive in deeper and see if there is anything I like.
     
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  2. abandapart77

    abandapart77 Tourist

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    I will kick it off with a few to consider -

    Cincy -3.5 vs. Detroit
    Houston +9.5 vs Indy
    Carolina ML vs Minny
    Arizona ML vs Cleveland
    Dallas -4 vs NE
    Buffalo -5.5 vs Tenn

    Most of the rest of the lines out there are really pretty sharp at this point.
     
    Karn Evil #9 - March Madness
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  3. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron High-Roller

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    I really would like to hammer Dallas -4 - but I smell a rat - seems too good to be true.
     
  4. abandapart77

    abandapart77 Tourist

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    I dont disagree at all. Spread just seems out of whack for my numbers. I actually have Dallas winning by 2 TDs based mainly on Dallas Rushing Off vs. NE Rush Def.

    Another one I didnt list just because Vegas is probably smarter than me.
    Arizona ML (+3) over Cleveland. Is this line just because they are playing in Cleveland? Nobody trust Arizona yet?
     
    Karn Evil #9 - March Madness
  5. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I think that's part of it. But also Cleveland is pretty good. Two good teams, I am not surprised the ine is three for the home team. Plus, it looks like Jones will be out for Arizona
     
  6. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Ended up making a few wagers this morning because I sspect if these lines move at all, it will be against me:
    Houston +10
    Arizona game over
    Chargers game over
    Tampa game first half under

    I also bet a couple team props. It seems, though, the market has even cauht up to those and the lines are really sharp (I made a killing on the props the first five weeks). I shouldn't be surprised. Enough games have now been played where you generally know what you're getting at this point. Even my Houston bet is a smaller than normal one (just because I have touble betting a team that bad even with a double digit line)
     
  7. Legion

    Legion Low-Roller

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    My browns are down 3 in secondary and 2 on the o line.. Not good spot for us
     
  8. rob889

    rob889 High-Roller

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    I hammered the lookahead lines last week and got Dal -1 so I feel ripped off if I make too many more bets on them with it up to -4 even though I think they should handle NE without too many issues. Same with getting on BUF early at -3 where the line is now -6.
     
  9. STS05

    STS05 High-Roller

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    I took the alternate line on the Cowboys -7 +165 for one unit and I'm waiting to see if the line moves more towards the Pats. If so, I'll probably do another unit on the -7. I really like Dallas here and I'm a 36 year Pats fan. :haha:
     
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  10. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    How about the banged up Giants at home vs LAR on East coast time...not sure who is running the ball for the Gints yet though,but the rookie ODB type guy broke out...I'd be afraid to lay 10 and I have Stafford in Fantasy..
     
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  11. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I try to stay away from QB uncertainty. I think the Rams should win, even if the Giants are all healthy. But its hard to get a handle on the line when you don't know who is playing QB or aren't prepared for them. Case in point: the Rams last week. Hawks fans seemed upbeat this week after watching Smith play decently for Wilson. I believe a big part of that is because the Rams had not prepped for Smith and didn't know what to expect after he came in the game
     
  12. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    Thanks UK..life got in the way so far this week and forgot DJones was banged up too..
     
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  13. rob889

    rob889 High-Roller

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    I still feel like the uncertainty is much worse for the offense than the defense. In this situation either the starting QB is missing out on valuable practice reps or the backup is trying to force chemistry with the 1st team players that he hasn't had much practice time with. The defense will be in a better position to take advantage of any mistakes/miscues. Also factor in their star RB is injured so they can bring the pressure and force Glennon (assuming Jones is out) to make some plays and by Jones not being in they also lose the QB rushing threat.
     
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  14. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    From what I have read, it looks like Jones will play. But I don't think we will know for sure until the weekend
     
  15. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    And just to be clear (talking about two different Jones), I am reading that Chandler Jones is likely out and Daniel Jones is likely in
     
  16. rob889

    rob889 High-Roller

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    Yea it sounds like Daniel Jones will probably play but either way they'll hurt at least a little from lack of prep this week along with lack of Barkley. I definitely like LAR in teasers this week.
     
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  17. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    A lot of Daniel Jones's value this year has been scrambling and designed runs. If they put him on some sort of don't run plan, that really hurts. I, like you, am staying away here.

    Geno also threw the ball really well. There's a reason the Seattle line is only 4.5-5 to Pitt on the road (or something like 2 point dogs on a neutral field) - he was making some plays.

    I am more positive on NE vs. DAL than a lot of the other posters in here. Dallas is running crazy good on defensive turnovers against terrible offenses. This feels like the sort of line where the public ends up moving Dallas a bit too far. NE was able to slow down Brady at Foxboro a couple weeks ago

    I took Houston as well, so I'm sure that means they'll end up laying an egg.

    I like Cleveland to just run the ball like crazy and slow it down. I feel like 3 is about right, though, and Herbert really ate them up once their CBs were hurt
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021 at 3:13 PM
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  18. rob889

    rob889 High-Roller

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    I thought this but at the same time I feel like NE has a lot more familiarity with Brady so they know his weaknesses and how to take advantage of them. The weather also played a big role in that game. Also, they know Brady isn't really a threat to take off with the ball where Dak is. I agree on the regression of the Dallas defensive takeaways but at the same time they're up against a rookie QB with nowhere near the offensive weapons that Dallas has. NE should have lost to HOU on Sunday...that was a really ugly win that they didn't deserve vs a rookie QB on a bad team.
     
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  19. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    The line is already shrinking. Two public teams, so I could see that money moving the line either way
     
  20. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I agree. And let's all be honest, NE would have lost if not for special teams ineptitude/stupidity by Houston. I was pulling for NE (it helped me season props), but I cannot delude myself into thinking that is a quality team with that kind of performance
     
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