NFL Week 4 Odds: Early Spreads, Betting Lines For All 15 Games - from Odds Shark Read more at: https://nesn.com/2018/09/nfl-week-4-odds-early-spreads-betting-lines-for-all-15-games-2/
Dolphins +7.5 looks good, Patriots look real bad. Saints -3 Indy-2.5 Rams-.5 & Jaguars-2.5 in a 2 team teaser Packers +Chargers +Jaguars in a 3 team teaser
Pretty sure. I have the tickets, lol. I made the bets in August. So I am happy all four lines have moved in my favor over the past six weeks
Agree with Baltimore and LA Chargers. Cleveland concern for me is this: No. 1 overall pick QBs in their first career start are winless both straight-up and against the spread (0-10) since 2003. You’d have to go all the way back to David Carr’s debut in 2002 for the Houston Texans to find the last time the top pick won and covered in his first start. Of the 22 quarterbacks selected with the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, only four won in their first ever start. They haven’t performed any better ATS, going 3-15 since 1985, the first year that spread statistics were kept. Last one was Goff 0-7 straight up and ATS. Concern on Colts is they play Thursday night in New England. Team might look ahead to Thursday night game and not be focused on an 0-3 team. That is what happened to Minnesota vs Buffalo.
There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about wagering on Cleveland (even though they are 3-0 ATS this season, and won wagers for me in weeks 1 and 2). But respectfully, an analysis based on the first start for overall number ones isn't really relevant or persuasive. Even just looking at the last three, Goff lost a close game to a playoff team, Winston lost big to a team starting the number 2 overall pick (not sure how a QB taken #2 overall is magically different than those taken #1 overall), and Luck lost to a 10 and 6 team before winning the next week (oh, and he also lead his team to the playoffs that season). I just don't really understand what the first start by an overall #1 stat reveals about the game this weekend. It just seems like on of those interesting, but ultimately irrelevant stats. For me, the more relevant stats are those concerning how the teams are playing right now. They are mirror opposites of each other. Oakland can score but has an abyssmal defense. The Browns can't score, but have a really good defense. That's exactly how I looked at the game last month when I wagered it and I am lucky that, so far, both teams are playing to my expectations (won on the Browns week 1-2, and my Raiders under 8.5 on the season has certainly started off well). I also like that Cleveland is coming off the mini-bye and I am getting an extra 1.5 to 2 points over what the current lines are in Vegas. All of those facts suggest to me that the game will be close.
Only one bet. Thurs. LAC/LAR Over 59. Both Rams CD could be out. Rivers will throw the ball all night. You know Rams will put up 30 - 35.
1-Cowboys-3 2-Saints -3 3-Indy-1 4-Rams-.5 & Jaguars-1.5 in a 2 team teaser 5-Packers +Chargers +Jaguars in a 3 team teaser 5 plays
Super Contest Nattily Clad Belicheck 7-8 YTD Bengals (+5) PACKERS (-9.5) COWBOYS (-3) RAIDERS (-2.5) Ravens (+3)
Super Contest Top 5 picks Classic Oakland -2.5 1,110 entries Cincinnati +5 952 entries Denver +5 863 entries New York Giants +3.5 846 entries Indianapolis -1 813 entries Gold Denver +5 49 entries Oakland -2.5 47 entries Cincinnati +5 44 entries New York Giants +3.5 40 entries Seattle -3 34 entries
I don't know. I think that's a pretty good line. But the under looks interesting. I will be mildly surprised if these teams combine to score 30
