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NFL week 4 opening lines

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by rooster42000, Sep 23, 2018.

  1. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 24, 2018
  2. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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  3. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Dolphins +7.5 looks good, Patriots look real bad.
    Saints -3
    Indy-2.5
    Rams-.5 & Jaguars-2.5 in a 2 team teaser
    Packers +Chargers +Jaguars in a 3 team teaser
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2018
  4. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Fitzmagic is at his old habits , turning the ball over.
     
  5. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Cowboys -3
     
  6. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I have the following:
    Colts +2
    Browns +4.5
    Chargers -4
    Ravens +6
     
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  7. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    @UKFanatic you sure of those lines ? or are those from pre season
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Pretty sure. I have the tickets, lol. I made the bets in August. So I am happy all four lines have moved in my favor over the past six weeks
     
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    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. archie1959

    archie1959 High-Roller

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    Agree with Baltimore and LA Chargers. Cleveland concern for me is this: No. 1 overall pick QBs in their first career start are winless both straight-up and against the spread (0-10) since 2003. You’d have to go all the way back to David Carr’s debut in 2002 for the Houston Texans to find the last time the top pick won and covered in his first start. Of the 22 quarterbacks selected with the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, only four won in their first ever start. They haven’t performed any better ATS, going 3-15 since 1985, the first year that spread statistics were kept. Last one was Goff 0-7 straight up and ATS. Concern on Colts is they play Thursday night in New England. Team might look ahead to Thursday night game and not be focused on an 0-3 team. That is what happened to Minnesota vs Buffalo.
     
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  10. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about wagering on Cleveland (even though they are 3-0 ATS this season, and won wagers for me in weeks 1 and 2). But respectfully, an analysis based on the first start for overall number ones isn't really relevant or persuasive. Even just looking at the last three, Goff lost a close game to a playoff team, Winston lost big to a team starting the number 2 overall pick (not sure how a QB taken #2 overall is magically different than those taken #1 overall), and Luck lost to a 10 and 6 team before winning the next week (oh, and he also lead his team to the playoffs that season). I just don't really understand what the first start by an overall #1 stat reveals about the game this weekend. It just seems like on of those interesting, but ultimately irrelevant stats.

    For me, the more relevant stats are those concerning how the teams are playing right now. They are mirror opposites of each other. Oakland can score but has an abyssmal defense. The Browns can't score, but have a really good defense. That's exactly how I looked at the game last month when I wagered it and I am lucky that, so far, both teams are playing to my expectations (won on the Browns week 1-2, and my Raiders under 8.5 on the season has certainly started off well). I also like that Cleveland is coming off the mini-bye and I am getting an extra 1.5 to 2 points over what the current lines are in Vegas. All of those facts suggest to me that the game will be close.
     
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    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 VIP Whale

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    Only one bet. Thurs. LAC/LAR Over 59. Both Rams CD could be out. Rivers will throw the ball all night. You know Rams will put up 30 - 35.
     
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  12. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 VIP Whale

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    Easy over win tonight. let's move on to Sunday.
     
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  13. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Rivers ????? you mean Cousins
     
  14. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 VIP Whale

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    my bad.
     
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  15. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    1-Cowboys-3
    2-Saints -3
    3-Indy-1
    4-Rams-.5 & Jaguars-1.5 in a 2 team teaser
    5-Packers +Chargers +Jaguars in a 3 team teaser

    5 plays
     
  16. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 VIP Whale

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    I'm on Detroit and Atl. Sorry.
     
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  17. archie1959

    archie1959 High-Roller

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    Super Contest Nattily Clad Belicheck
    7-8 YTD
    Bengals (+5)
    PACKERS (-9.5)
    COWBOYS (-3)
    RAIDERS (-2.5)
    Ravens (+3)
     
  18. archie1959

    archie1959 High-Roller

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    Super Contest Top 5 picks
    Classic
    Oakland -2.5 1,110 entries
    Cincinnati +5 952 entries
    Denver +5 863 entries
    New York Giants +3.5 846 entries
    Indianapolis -1 813 entries

    Gold
    Denver +5 49 entries
    Oakland -2.5 47 entries
    Cincinnati +5 44 entries
    New York Giants +3.5 40 entries
    Seattle -3 34 entries
     
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  19. Tahoejoe2

    Tahoejoe2 VIP Whale

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    Seattle -3. another no brainer.
     
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  20. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    I don't know. I think that's a pretty good line. But the under looks interesting. I will be mildly surprised if these teams combine to score 30 :faint:
     
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