NFL opening odds Week 10 starts 11/10/2022

I mean maybe they keep it close in the first half and then forget how to play football in the second?

 

Good thing the reigning DPOY is back now

 

That sounds like a typical week for the raiders though

 

A bettor from IL placed this 10-leg, $25K NBA/CFB/NFL parlay earlier today to win $676,079.22 at Caesar's

Raptors ML (-210) Suns ML (-320) Fresno State ML (-355) Penn State ML (-385) Notre Dame ML (-800) Georgia ML (-800) Bama ML (-440) Clemson ML (-278) Bucs ML (-155) Browns ML (+158)

 

Still only 4-4 with a very tough opponent this Sunday. On paper they look good, but they don't play games on paper.

 

Look at their remaining games, https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/sf
Most are home.

 

I'm going to try a thing
When there is a split between % of tickets and % of money, I am going to follow the money
Even though this is messing up my original picks
Wish me luck


Denver (+2.5) over TENNESSEE
Houston (+6.5) over NY GIANTS
Indianapolis (+6.5) over LAS VEGAS
GREEN BAY (+4.5) over Dallas
Arizona (+3.5) over LA RAMS

 

On to the 2nd half.
23-21-1 Real Westgate
23-20-2 Fake Circa

Seattle +2.5 (Circa +3)
Bucking a REAL BIG TREND HERE.
Since December 2021, When two teams are playing each other, and the next week each have a bye, favorite is 13-0 ATS (I was informed 13-1, but it looked 13-0 to me)
If Brady wins, that will tie him for most wins for a QB in international locations.
Right now he has won in London & Mexico City.
Other QB'S?
Jay Cutler and Ryan Fitzpatrick. https://bolavip.com/en/nfl/nfl-which-is-tom-brady-record-in-International-games-20221108-0047.html

I'm bucking for this reason:
Pete Carroll was the head coach when Seattle went to London and defeated Gruden
If you remember the Raiders were flat in their London game along with Gruden having fear of flying.

From NBC PFT Live:
The flight time directly to Munich is only 30 minutes longer; eight hours, 55 minutes from Tampa, and nine hours, 25 minutes from Seattle.

So there’s no real advantage for the Buccaneers. If anything, the Seahawks avoid facing a traditional “home” crowd in Tampa, as the Bucs give up what would be a ninth home game for a neutral-site showdown that may have a Super Bowl feel. Especially since the NFL got three million ticket requests for the game.

As of right now, Seattle is the better team.
I'm not on TB because last week's win might have been their Super Bowl.
Defeating a team that knocked them out of the playoffs the prior season.

Pittsburgh +1.5 (Same Circa)
Mike Tomlin is 11-4 SU out of the bye, and you know this is an awesome Rah Rah Tomlin underdog spot. Tomlin is 39-16-1 ATS (71%) as a dog from Week 5 forward, and he’s an absurd 14-2-1 ATS (88%) at home with nine straight covers and seven straight wins outright, including one with Pickett. Tomlin is 13-4 SU as a home dog in those games
Saints are 0-3 ATS on the road this season, the longest road ATS losing streak for New Orleans since 2017.
Since the beginning of the 2018 regular season, Andy Dalton has been a road favorite five times — against Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Dalton is 1-4 ATS in those games.
All information from Action Network.

Jacksonville +9.5 (Same Circa)
A sandwich game for Kansas City.
MMMMM Sandwich.
Last week, Remember The Titans.
Next week, Los Angeles/San Diego Super Chargers.
In the middle, Jacksonville.

No covers for KC this season at home.
Largest margin of victory this season for KC at home?
3 points.
And KC played OT last week.

Jacksonville 1st time this season that they are getting more than a TD and a 2 point conversion.
How bad is their margin of losing?

Denver 4 points
G-men 6 points
Indy 7 points
Houston 7 points
Philly 8 points

A game where KC will win, but remembering that a division game looms.
Along with their their number 2 seeding, first place in the AFC west and a perfect division record.

LA Chargers +7 (Same Circa)
On Paper SF is the better team and maybe the healthier team.
But here is why I'm going with the San Diego/ LA Super Chargers:
Chargers are 4-0 ATS on the road this season.(Depends upon the Atlanta spread, I had 3 for a line)
This season, Herbert has played on road in PST twice, both were tight games: 35-32 loss to Raiders and a 30-27 win over the Raiders.

Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
Favorite: 19-27-1 ATS (4th worst)
Underdog: 29-19 ATS (5th best)
Jimmy G on SNF:
2021-now: 0-3 SU/ATS
2016-20: 4-0 SU/ATS
Sunday-Night Home Favorites vs Non-Conference Opponents are on an 0-5 ATS Streak
Since 2018, Sunday-Night Home Favorites are 3-8-1 ATS after their bye week.

Washington +11 (Same Circa)
Most double digit favorites have not been covering this season.
But Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS and they did have a double digit cover vs Pittsburgh on Oct 30.
Philadelphia did beat and cover 24-8 on September 25th vs Washington.

From Action Network:
Double-digit underdogs on MNF are 27-13-2 ATS in the last 20 years.
Worth noting: underdogs of 7.5 to 9.5 are 14-18 ATS on MNF in this span.
Overall, double-digit underdogs at night are 63-47-3 ATS over the last 20 years.
Commanders have played some very close games lately, with an average scoring margin of just +0.2 in their last five games. Teams with a margin of +/- 2 (1.9 to -1.9) in their last five games, who face a team 8-0 SU or better, are 19-6-1 ATS in the last 20 years, covering by 3.4 PPG.

8-0 SU or better teams are 99-53 SU, 62-85-5 ATS (42.2%) over the last 20 years, including 24-37-1 ATS (39.3%) over the last decade.

In the last 20 years, 38 teams who were 8-0 SU or better and played a game in primetime are 23-15 SU, but just 13-23-2 ATS.

8-0 SU or better on MNF last 5 years:

2020 11-0 PIT (-5.5) vs. WAS (L, 23-17)
2019 8-0 SF (-6.5) vs. SEA (L, 27-24)
2017 8-0 NE (-10) at MIA (L, 27-20)


I went back and looked at the last 10 matchups between the two teams.
1 game was a 24 point margin.
1 game was a 16 point margin
1 game was a 15 point margin
The seven others no higher than 10.

This week, I tried to stay away from teams that had a high percentage of bets
As of Friday night the list was:
Tennessee 78 percent
Chicago 78 percent
Giants 77 percent
Dallas 76 percent
Via VSIN Link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/daily-betting-insights-for-mlb-nba-nhl/

I was planning to take Dallas, but was swayed by the link.
I'll see how this strategy pans out.

Good luck to all this week.
No more 2-3 or 1-4 weeks! (Maybe that can be my slogan to copyright)

 

Great writeup. Thanks Archie.
Love Pitt.
Like Seattle. TB played a bad ram's team

 

@Tahoejoe2 TY.

It makes me feel as if I'm Columbo.
Instead of trying to solve a murder, it's who's going to cover a point spread.
But Columbo solved his murders in a 2 hour span with commercials.

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/11/12/report-josh-allen-set-to-start-for-bills/

 

Ryan Tannehill expected to play tomorrow.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35011671/sources-titans-ryan-tannehill-expected-play-vs-broncos


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10055502-titans-ryan-tannehill-reportedly-set-to-return-from-ankle-injury-vs-broncos

 

Circa Top 5
1-Seahawks
2-Steelers
3-Bears
4-Browns
5-Titans

 

Circa Survivor

 

Toying with Justin Fields O60.5 yards -130

 

Now that week 9 has passed, I'm going to try to post what the contest leader or leaders have for picks.
Depends upon if Fantasy Super Contest uploads information.
I pay the premium price for the site when I am in a Vegas contest.
It lets you view current and past history of contests.
Circa goes back to 2019
Super Contest 2013

Circa leader
Tampa Bay -3
Pittsburgh +1.5
Cleveland +3.5
Indianapolis +6.5
Dallas -4.5

Westgate info tomorrow.
I'll try to rise before 9:30 AM kickoff.

 

Odds for Sunday : starting with morning game at 9AM est. Seahawks and Bucs from Germany.

https://www.vsin.com/odds/nfl/ from all Vegas Sportsbooks

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/ From Bet MGM , Fanduel , Draftkings

 

Weather: It’s not terrible weather in Munich, especially for football. In fact, it’s more like Seattle weather. Tailgaters in Munich will be treated to 50 degrees and at kickoff, per AccuWeather.com, the temperature may bump to 52. Since this is a 3:30 p.m. kickoff Munich time, the temperature will drop quickly. Look for temperatures around 48 by game’s end. The skies should be clear, though brisk. In other words, football weather.

Odds: Per BetMGM, as of noon today, Bucs -2.5; over/under 45.

Referees: Referee John Hussey and his crew could be called a hussy for home teams. And remember folks, the Bucs are technically the home team today. Per Sharp Football Analysis, Hussey’s crew favors the home teams. Hussey and his outfit also like to let teams play. Hussey and his gang have called near the fewest penalties in unnecessary roughness, roughing the passer and defensive holding. Why is Hussey considered a home-team referee? Consider the past six years of data demonstrate the favorite, which is often the home team, is 55-39-3 (59 percent) against the spread.

Injuries: Seahawks — Out: LB Cullen Gillaspea (knee). Questionable: WR Marquise Goodwin (wide receiver). Bucs — Out: WR Russell Gage (hamstring), G Luke Goedeke (foot), LG Luke Goedeke (foot), ILB J.J. Russell (hamstring). Questionable: TE Cam Brate (neck).

Outlook: This game could have playoff implications in more ways than one. Yeah, the Bucs want to keep their division title hopes alive in a putrid NFC South. It’s beginning to look like the division winner will pull it off with nine wins. Given the fact the Bucs enter Week 10 with but four wins, that’s still sort of cringeworthy. Joe thinks the defense is rounding into form. There was a noticeable difference with Akiem Hicks in the lineup. Add Antoine Winfield and Joe isn’t concerned about the Seattle offense. It’s not unreasonable to expect the defense to hold Seattle to 24 points. The offense, well, that’s another matter. It is shameful an offense with such talent cannot score more than its 18 points per game average. You cannot tell Joe Tom Brady has fallen off a cliff. Brady is second in the NFL in passing yards. Does that sound like a washed up QB? If Bucs coach Todd Bowles had any stones, he would tell failing Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich if the Bucs offense doesn’t score 24 points today, he’s cleaning out his office the moment the Bucs touch down from Munich. The only people who accept the atrocious job that Leftwich had done this year are the ones at One Buc Palace. Across the league, coaches who have done an awful job have been launched. What playcaller has been worse than Leftwich? The Bucs need more today from Leftwich and the Bucs offense than a couple of Munich potato dumplings.

Fun fact: Brady has thrown 373 consecutive passes without being picked. That’s the second-most in NFL history. Choke artist Aaron Rodgers holds the record at 402. So if Brady throws 30 passes today to start the game without being intercepted, he will set the NFL record for most consecutive passes thrown without being picked.