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Video Poker Need a good answer from an expert!

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by Astribling, Mar 12, 2020.

  1. Astribling

    Astribling Alice In Casinoland

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    @tringlomane -- Can you give me a good comeback here! I, of course, get people all the time who correct me on my VP play. That's part of life on YouTube. But when they are wrong and tell me I'm an idiot, well it IRKS me! LOL

    The below example. Just FYI I was playing DDB my hand was AH, 10H, 3H, QS, 7S. I, of course, ran the hand through Wizard of Odds, just to make sure I was not wrong. I answered him and gave him the numbers. (Probably shouldn't have told him he didn't know how to play. LOL)

    His response even after seeing the numbers
    "It's 2 parts of the royal flush. Ace of hearts and 10 of hearts. Your not playing that hand right. You threw the 10 of hearts away. Huge mistake. It's your money."

    At this point I'm just going to ignore it. I don't think you can argue with people like this. But, man, what do you say? Ugh!!
    Thanks for listening to my rant!! :bang::bang:

    Edited to add: And just wanted to add, I know there are people that like to hold A,10 suited. And if you feel that's lucky for you or whatever, more power to you! Just don't tell me I'm WRONG even after I show you the math.

    2020-03-12 (2).png
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2020
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  2. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Commenters on YouTube are mostly idiots when it comes to VP strategy. You can try to correct them, but it might be easier to ignore them.

    And his argument only represents his side of the coin. Sure if you don't hold the ten you can't make the royal. But if you hold the ten, then AWAK is impossible and drawing the other 3 Aces is 4 times more difficult.

    Let's just look at the value of any hand that's a quad or better to get a better idea of what's a better "longshot" hold.

    First the ATs suited hold, because that's easier. Lol

    Drawing 3 cards gives 47x46x45/(3x2x1) = 16,215 combinations.

    Royal: 800 units x 1/16,215 = 0.049337
    4 Aces: 160 units x 1/16,215 = 0.0098674
    4 Tens: 50 units x 1/16,215 = 0.0030836
    Total: 0.06288

    Now if you draw four there are 47x46x45x44/(4x3x2x1) = 178,365 combinations.

    AWAK: 400 units x 11/178,365 = 0.0246685
    (Note it's 11 possible kickers, not 12 since you tossed the 3 of hearts. This also makes it impossible to make the "steel wheel" straight flush.)

    4 Aces: 160 units x 33/178,365 = 0.0296022

    4 2-4s with Ace: 160 units x 2/178,365 = 0.0017941
    (Quad 3s impossible)

    5-Ks: 50 units x 6/178,365 = 0.0016819
    (7s, Ts, Qs impossible)

    Total: 0.0577467

    Damn, I thought the big hands would be more with just the Ace, but I guess I was wrong. Oops... lol Of course you're also 30.4% more likely to draw at least one Ace by tossing the ten, so the lower paying hands matter too, and they matter enough to put the Ace ahead from an expected value standpoint.
     
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  3. Astribling

    Astribling Alice In Casinoland

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    Thanks Tring! I knew you would have much more detailed math for me!! LOL
    And yeah, I could post this as a reply for him, but that would be futile! Hahaha
     
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  4. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah the math I did makes his suggestion look better. But the error cost is pretty large overall.
     
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  5. zignerlv

    zignerlv VIP Whale

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    Look at it this way. The people that consistently make the wrong plays increase the house actual hold, and allow the casino to justify allowing higher EV machines to stay on the floor, which helps you. There is zero advantage to you to try to sway this person, or any person, that they are wrong and you are right.

    While youtube might be worse, there are plenty of threads even here where wrong plays have been touted as right. If they are seeking advice, then sure, educate them. Otherwise, leave them be and let them play the "right" way in their minds.
     
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  6. wasilla

    wasilla High-Roller

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    Sorry to go off topic here, but since you have Tring's mathematical attention:

    Tring, can you direct me to where you discussed Boyd VP Tier Credit earning rates and the formula you used?
     
  7. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Oh God, it was mostly buried in the huge bitch thread about Boyd making this players' club change.

    Do you just need the formula? I can give you that easy. And remember tier credits are truncated when you remove your card. *cough* Bullshit! *cough*

    Coin-in per tier credit = $0.50 / Theoretical Loss Percentage

    "Theoretical Loss Percentage" is just 100% - optimal return.

    Some common examples:

    9/5 DDB: $0.50 / 2.13% = $23.47 per tier credit

    9/6 DDB: $0.50 / 1.02% = $49.02 per tier credit

    8/5 Bonus: $0.50 / 0.83% = $60.24 per tier credit

    9/6 JoB: $0.50 / 0.46% = $108.70 per tier credit

    I've read in passing recently that someone played machines better than 9/6 JoB and still got the JoB rate. Unfortunately, I forgot who wrote that. :(
     
  8. smerrian

    smerrian View from Bally's

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    @tringlomane , there are also the lesser combinations to consider...holding just the Ah you have 4 chances to pick up a pair of queens for a payout...holding the Ah, 3h you only have 3 chances to pick up a pair of queens. So, holding just the Ah gives you a lot more chances at picking up lesser winning combinations (high pairs, two pairs, etc). I believe the WoO site takes all the winning combinations into account when it shows the EV per hold.
     
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  9. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Oh I know, I just didn't want to do all that math by hand to illustrate it. And likely I'd screw it up somewhere down the line. Unfortunately, the WOO hand analyzer just gives overall EV value.
     
  10. zignerlv

    zignerlv VIP Whale

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    There was a thread about a month ago, that I responded to, where the poster blew all that out of the water, claiming they had many times more tier credits on full pay VP than the rates shown in your numbers! And, claimed it wasn't just one particular machine, but many that were giving tier credits at this much higher rate. (At the Fremont?) I might look for it later.
     
  11. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Yeah I read it too, but I'd have to search for it. And no one else has made the claim since?
     
  12. mrstealth

    mrstealth VIP Whale

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    I play a lot of VP and specifically DDB. I personally do not hold A-10 suited unless on a progressive with a higher meter. This past month I have hit A w/kicker TWICE holding a single Ace. Once for $1,316 and once for $1,000 (10 quarter machines). I have often also hit 4 aces holding a single ace (or 4 2s,3s 4s with Ace as kicker). I think the key is do do it consistently one way or another.

    As an aside, I also hold a suited 10-king. Not sure what the math says on this one but have hit 2+ royals with this combination in the past 12 months.
     
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  13. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Suited KT is paytable dependent. Generally speaking for non-progressive games...

    10/6 and 9/6: Hold KTs if there isn't a 3rd suited card. If you have a 3rd suited card, hold ALL 3 cards! Yes, I know that's weird.

    9/5 and less: Hold KTs if there isn't a 3rd suited card. Hold King only if there is a 3rd suited card. I made quad kings after tossing the suited ten once in Bonus Poker (same rule applies).

    Congrats on the Royals!
     
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  14. petnel

    petnel Tourist

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    I started a thread back on Feb. 12 in the Comps section here while staying at MSS. I noticed that the $0.25 10/7 DB machines there were in fact giving tier credits at the rate of about $95 coin in per tier credit. This was true on several of the 10/7 machines I played at. I made no claim for any other game or denomination, but the tier credits for the quarter 10/7 play were for real.
     
  15. wasilla

    wasilla High-Roller

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    Thanks Tring. Based on my 9/6 JOB play, I trust your estimates. Thanks for sharing petnel. I played $100,000 through 10/7 DB at the Cal before the change and didn't get any TC's (initially they gave me negative tier credits) and I played several hundred dollrs after the change w/o a single TC. I gave up, but will check it out again next trip.
     
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  16. 3OfDiamonds

    3OfDiamonds Vegas is Fabulous When You Degen Responsibly ;)

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    omg yes, KTx suited makes me cringe when I see it on 10/6 DDB :eek::goofy::haha:
     
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  17. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    Thanks for catching this thread @petnel. I think it's a fair change for sure. Anything above $100 per tier credit is pretty ridiculous, imo.
     
  18. Astribling

    Astribling Alice In Casinoland

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    Whenever I have K, 10 suited with an off suit 9, that's when I'm always not sure. I have an app that will show me the best play, but it doesn't give you stats on the other holds.
     
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  19. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    That still should be KT suited, afaik.
     
  20. vetsen

    vetsen Low-Roller

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    You may be thinking of 9/6 jacks. In that game, if you have KTs with a 9 and a flush penalty, you hold just the K.