NCAA Football

Yes.

Oregon and Notre Dame proved today they are frauds.

 

Fraud is a strong word. It's either Georgia or Alabama as clear #'s 1&2. I'm not sure it's not Georgia. After these two, maybe 6-8 teams figuring out who are #'s 3&4.

This said, Oregon is either an undisciplined team, dirty team, or a combination of both. I have my suspicions, and as it regards winning games, this is going to cost them. It already has.

Discipline matters. A lot. Nebraska is pretty close, and this has plagued them for several seasons now. Maryland is another school full of really good athletes and UA money, and same thing.

I don't normally gamble on sports, but when I do it's college football. I bet large against Oregon and Maryland, as I thought these were pretty obvious for anyone who understands what they are watching on the field. I also bet against Florida, but not as large. Everything was already pretty obvious with these two teams. Nebraska, Kentucky and Mississippi Sate rounded out my action. A nice weekend for me, with no losers. I am pretty selective on my bets, and sometimes go several weeks with no action at all. This week just seemed to me to be hugely predictable and I took the opportunity to have some fun.

So my observations about what was learned in week 5 is that nothing was learned about either Oregon or Maryland, becuase those two teams were already a known commodity long before this weekend. Nothing was learned about Nebraska, everyone already knew they had a good defense prior to the 1st game. Not a lot was learned about Iowa, becuase their pattern is pretty predictable, although the offense made some strides. When I say offense, I'm not talking about quarterback, points scored, etc., I'm referring to the only part of offense that matters with better teams winning football games. O line, TE's and receivers able to get on blocks down field. A lot of other things, but I'm not interested in typing 6-8 pages, and I doubt all but a few are interested in reading 6-8 pages.

So as an Iowa fan, the most concerning series of events I saw unfold Friday, and it remains to be seen if PSU can exploit this next week, is the series where it went, 21 personnel, to RB15 off split flow, got 7. Shotgun, WR16 motions in, mesh concept, MD DBs run into each other, TE84 maybe a cup of coffee. comes open for any easy 1st down. Short side OZ busted up by MD, DT34 came free, end up losing a yard. I noticed this, and credit to HGF for the technical. I follow HGF fairly closely, and I am always learning from him. He is limited in who he follows, usually having very general observations about most teams, but really, really breaking down by individual play the teams he follows. He is a paid scout for both NCAAF and NFL.

I think we learned a bit more about Cincinnati & Ole Miss. Penn State as well, but only as it regards offense, and rushing offense. Which is about their receivers blocking down field, and O line play. PSU has one very, very good WR, and not nationally recognized yet. But I'm sure recognized by NFL scouts for reasons not obvious to the casual fan. PSU defense was already known based on the first 4 games.

As it regards PSU, I suspect @Nittany1 would have some additional insight. I think a pretty decent bet could be aligning for next Saturday's Iowa / PSU game. Not sure yet.

Other, abbreviated general observations are 1) Cincinnati is a fairly solid college football team. 2) I'm not sure what to think about BYU yet. 3) K State is closer than most think. 4) What a difference at Sparty and Rutgers.

Anyway, I'm just some random guy on a message board, so my observations are what they are, and worth maybe a cup of coffee.

 

Next week's most interesting games to me (not necessarily games that should be gambled on, but a couple might be considered) are:

Arkansas - Ole Miss

Penn State - Iowa

Michigan - Nebraska

Texas - Oklahoma

SC - Tennessee

So interesting to me becuase I believe these games will help clarify a lot of things going forward. Some will clarify in an inverse way. Some in a transitive way. The amount of NFL talent in these games, specifically defensive secondary, is going to be staggering. If you're a fan of this type of fundamentally solid, disciplined college football, these are good games. Most would rather watch shoot outs, and it seems those games are more watched, so it is what it is.

There are a couple more, but I suspect no one cares about those mid to upper(ish) level conference games. Although, if I bet next week, it would be precisely these games that I would bet. It's just that they don't get a lot of attention from national media, or most fans.

I'd also suggest the importance of special teams, or in the case of some of the "pretenders", lack of special teams. We saw this with the two unfortunate injuries this last weekend. Very good offensive and defensive starters, or 2 deeps, now playing special teams. The more sophisticated, better coached and forward thinking teams that actually play something resembling football have embraced this, and are not surprisingly littered in the T10. We've seen this changing for the last decade or so.

 

PSU D is the real deal. Strong linebackers and D backs..
Offense has been somewhat frustrating to watch.
QB playing well but cannot figure out the running game.
Stable of quality backs but O line cannot get it done.
Iowa has the horses to stuff them.Should be interesting.

 

Ducks loyalist here and I've been saying over and over that we were way too far up the rankings. Let's just have UGA and Bama line up now and give the hardware to the Dawgs.

 

PSU has a potential future NFL receiver in my view, and I'm calling this very, very early. Being a receiver is a series of things outside of running the routes and catching the football. It also involves downfield rush blocking. Kind of boring stuff. The improvement is his downfield blocking between Auburn and yesterday was pretty obvious. That's anecdotal as I haven't watched the film, and doesn't take into account who the opponents were, but should be very exciting for you to watch. As importantly, to me at least, is that by all accounts, he is an absolute decent young gentleman. Very refreshing to see when yesterday we witnessed what had to be targeting, and in my view, intentional targeting to the point I think that kid should not play for the rest of the season. Especially since this wasn't an isolated incident, and seems to be a pattern.

Anyway, one thing to look out for next week, and this is really "inside baseball", is ineligible receivers downfield. Both teams are incredibly well coached, so this might not be an issue. But part of the game plan will be delayed defenses, trying to bait PSU linemen downfield. It happens with bend but don't break defensives. It's a lot to explain well in a short paragraph, but I can see PSU's o line, specifically when over aggressive on the left side, being game planned for. Especially since PSU's offensive line is fairly young, or transferred in, so not a lot of time playing together. Same with Iowa's o line, which is well below average for an Iowa team so far this season. They could be exposed next weekend.

It's a fascinating game to me no matter what happens, and leaving aside I'm a fan of one of the teams. I know JF gets some criticism about in game coaching, but the game inside the game here is about as close as it gets to better SEC teams and coaches.

 

Things to look at if you're betting PSU - Iowa. I'm not interested in betting yet, but might end up taking a small position.

PSU QB contain by Iowa 4.

PSU has 3 legitimate TE's. They throw to all 3, and all 3 can catch the ball, as well as block. Canadian TE was looked at by several TE U's.

Special teams favor Iowa.

Iowa has already faced talented WR's, and PSU's one WR has some drops at inopportune times.

PSU QB is not a running QB per se, but a "willing runner"

PSU's Dotson is also NFL caliber in my view. PSU 5 -v- Iowa Cash position is something to pay attention to. That will be Cash, and 2 deep over the top, and that will free up everyone else for PSU.

Auburn beat LSU last night in a game that they should have probably won by more. This adds serious credibility to PSU's resume this season.

PSU QB has tendency to only look to PSU 5. That needs cleaned up, or there will be an interception against Iowa's secondary.

Iowa has one extra day of game prep. Iowa also has a break in routine due to this. That's pretty big in the college game.

PSU has an active pass rush. Iowa has issues at tackle. This is not unimportant. You'd except receiver screens due to this, and some delayed blocking, and delayed passing.

Indiana played pretty solid defense yesterday, so there is something to be taken away from yesterday's PSU game.

If PSU defense plays a clean game, Iowa could struggle to get 80-100 yards. That is very possible. PSU's defense is good, but last night they did have some undisciplined plays.

PSU likes chunk plays. Chunk plays are hard to get against Iowa.

I don't know, but I suspect Iowa doesn't bring defensive pressure, and plays coverage. Iowa playing coverage is often misunderstood as it is bend but don't break.

I think Dotson has 10 catches and a bunch of yards because Iowa will give up a ton of yards underneath.

Be thankful Herbstreit isn't a part of the tv broadcast. Great guy personally. Pretty good football mind. Except about defense, where I can't believe some of the things he says, and believes.

Herbstreit genuinely likes Corso, and his treatment of Corso is commendable. His understanding of defense at the college level is not good.

 

Oregon, every season, proves they are frauds. Of course the bigger issue is that, year after year, the Big 10 is overrated so when a team like Oregon beats OSU the win is overvalued.

Notre Dame was always a fraud, just a matter of time before they had a game like yesterday.

 

Yet Oregon is the only team west of the Mississippi to make it to the natty -- and twice -- in the past 10 or so years.

 

You must be fun at parties.

 

I just don’t get excited about teams who, year after year, get hyped up by sportswriters, or fans, only to lose to Stanford, Cincinnati, or end up losing by 30 in the playoffs to Alabama. Let me know when one of those teams presents a real challenge - then we will have a party. Until then it is Alabama’s title to lose and the only team, right now, that even looks to be in their league is actually in their league - Georgia.

 

Seems to me that it makes sense to line up the conference champs in a CFP and see who wins each year.

 

The SEC.

 

Well, the SEC has won, the B1G has won, and the ACC has won in the CFP era, so I guess they should probably keep playing the games.

 

12 of the last 20 national titles have been won by the SEC. Big 10 has won 2. Or rather Ohio State has won 2, and none since 2014, while the rest of the Big 10 has been a joke for the last 20 years.

 

I don't think anyone is downplaying the SEC so you're kinda screaming to no one. But CFB is the only sport that doesn't come close to fielding a representative playoff. If you think the Marlins or Raiders winning it all as a wild card sullied those sports, then so be it.

 

Oh, I agree about the playoff but I also don't think the solution is to add more games to the college season like they seem to want to do. College football being 16 game season so they can add 2-3 more rounds of games like the NFL just seems like a money grab and not a solution.

 

I hope that's the case for Notre Dame. They come to Blacksburg to play my Hokies this Saturday and I would love for us to get a big win.

I'm not so sure it is the case for Oregon though. I watched that game (4th bet on a parlay that would have paid $1450.... Ouch) and they did plenty of things to get in their own way. There were also some questionable coaching calls. If they win out, they deserve to be in the playoff.

As far as the #3 & #4, it will be interesting to see who ends up there at the end of the season. I think what we are seeing is there are a lot of teams with more experience this year due to the extra year of eligibility. It's led to some really good football, but has made gambling a little tricky. I firmly believe we will have either a 2 loss playoff team or a G5 (Cincy or BYU) in the playoff this year. Those spots are important for recruiting, but ultimately will be sacrificial lambs.

Finally, I will say emphatically: NO TEAM DESERVES TO REACH THE PLAYOFFS IF THEY CANNOT LINE UP UNDER CENTER IN SHORT YARDAGE SITUATIONS. I can not take this shotgun on the 1 yard line crap seriously. This is FOOTBALL you bunch of sissies! Bring out the fullback!

 

Let's put the money chase aside, because that is a ceaseless juggernaut. But let's make this simple, which it is: We have 10 D-1A conferences. Seed the "top" 6 conferences into quarterfinal slots, have the four "lesser" play in for the last two spots. If anyone is worried about the additional wear/tear quit scheduling Stony Brook and Mercer during the season. Yes, there is still some of the eye-test bullshit involved, but far far less because you get eight conference champs into the playoffs instead of two or three and a team or two that couldn't win its conference. Rank the order by conference strength, not the strength of the conference champ. We should be down to eight FBS conferences soon, anyway.

But I'm a heretic. I actually miss the older conference orientations and the bowl system. I never once woke up after the "mythical national champ" was crowned thinking Santa Claus had ignored me. I LIKE the conference seasons and especially when we were 10 and played everyone every year. That is how this stuff should start, in fact. You don't get to dodge anyone in your conference. Alas, 14, 16, + conferences negate that.

 

I would love to find a true national champion by playoffs but to many games dilutes the product and 16 team super conferences really don't help. I'm with ken2v the old bowl system would be better at a certain point.