Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by BillDonovan, Aug 8, 2019.
My season wagers are made! Very excited for the season to tip off! Here's my bets, followed by some thoughts:
Bulls under 34
Warriors under 47
Spurs under 46
Hornets over 22.5
Grizz over 27
Wiz over 26.5
and two prop bets that Hawks will not make the playoffs and Spurs will not make the playoffs
That last one pays pretty well, so I am really hoping for a down year form the Spurs. I think this season both the Spurs and OKC fall out for the playoffs form last season and are replaced by the Lakers and Mavs. I have made a lot of money wagering on the Spurs over the past decade, but I think this is the year we see the decline (I still grade them as a 41 win team). They will start the season running the offense through their older, established stars, and historically, they are at the respective ages/minutes for their positions where decline should increase. I like some of their young guys and think they will be ok long term, but they are not ready to carry the team. Plus, their stats last year suggested they should have had a worse record. I don't see that getting better this season.
Another factor I spent a lot of time considering is which teams will tank this year. Tanking has been a gift to me in some years if I can find enough information about which teams may go for it (like the Knicks last season; that was easy money). But this season, I don't see as much tanking. There are a couple reasons. The draft lottery odds begin reduced for the worst teams, like last year, will continue to reduce some of the incentive. But more importantly this year, everything I read says the teams expect next summer to be a weak draft. This time a year ago, teams were expecting the 2019 draft to be very good and deep. They were wrong, but that was the expectation when teams built their NBA rosters in the fall. This year, though, teams don't have much incentive to tank. Thus, I feel a bit more comfortable betting the over on some of those teams with low win totals (especially Memphis, where I especially like the young talent). OKC is the only team I think is certainly tanking this year and that's mostly because they are structuring for a multi-year tank job.
Anywho, hoping for a fun season and a potentially wide open race for the title!
We are right around the quarter point on the season and so far, I feel very good about my wagers. Frankly, my wagers on the Warriors under, Spurs under, and Spurs prop to miss the playoffs are my three largest bets by far, so I am feeling really good The Grizz and Wiz bets are going to end up being close, but those are small wagers. The Grizz has been really close in a couple games. The talent is there. They just need to figure out how to finish games in the last two minutes. I hope they get there.
The Bulls under and Hawks prop to miss the playoffs are my next two largest wagers. The payoff on the Hawks bet isn't great (no surprise), but I didn't buy into the pre-season hype on them, so that bet feels safe. The Bulls wager could end up being close, but it looks very good right now. They are on pace to win 26 games, the best player dislikes the coach, and their first quarter schedule wasn't too hard. They already have losses against the Hornets (and should have lost their second game against them too), Cleveland, Golden State, Portland (twice), and Miami. Those are games they have to win if they are going to crack thirty wins.
I know most sports fans are only focused on football right now. But this pro season has started off with some interesting teams staying near the top of the standings. Should be interesting for the next several months!
For a team that was supposed to devolve after Kawhi left, with injuries to Lowry and Serge they are 15-4
Yeah, that is a shock to me. I stayed away from betting them because I had no idea what kind of team they would be, but I never expected this kind of start. There is still talent there, but losing a top three player is hard to overcome. I have only watched them a little since opening night. I want to see how they are doing it
[QUOTE="UKFanatic, post: 1950935, member: 17650"There is still talent there, but losing a top three player is hard to overcome. I have only watched them a little since opening night. I want to see how they are doing it[/QUOTE]
Pascal Siakam is a playa for real. Plus the supporting players last year are still supporting pretty good this year so far.
Raptors’ defence is absolutely stifling. They make defence fu to watch.
LMAO at the money involved bumping the Bulls opening number of 27.5 to 32.5. Pax / Gar / Yeah Boylen are grateful for the Bears trifecta of ineptitude (Pace / Nagy / Trubiski) to occupy the attention of the sad Chicago sports consumer.
"If you build it, they will come."
1. The assclown didn't even get the quote right (If you build it, HE will come).
2. The assclown likely doesn't know the name of the film he misquoted.
3. The assclown surely doesn't get the context of the movie quote.
@UKFanatic, you are a smart man and will win your under Bulls 34 bet.
So far so good
Yeah, I couldn't understand that 34 number before the season. It seemed like that number assumed a much bigger jump from Carter and a lot of people placing way too much faith in the "buzz" around Satoransky. I mean, pretty much everyone else in their rotation are who they are at this point. LaVine, Markanenn, etc., aren't going to make any huge leaps in performance at this point. Anywho, I hope they continue to play to my expectations
A little NBA note from last night for any Seinfeld fans. You remember the herbal healer episode, Jerry asks him to figure out what he wrote. The guy replies Cleveland 117 San Antonio 109. Well last night that was actually the final score. It went into OT and ruined my under bet, but at least it finally happened.
If you laid big money the Lakers and the over ... you can pay your mortgage off now lol
On track to crush 50.5
Right now the 3 best teams in NBA are Bucks, Lakers ,and Clippers. The west finals will be at Staples Center this season.
Over on the Wiz at 26.5 will be tough...
The Heat are a close 4
Yeah that was my goof, took the Lakers U 51 as I was depending on an Anthony Davis injury to occur, maybe not. Took Bucks O 57.5 as well.
You're going to win that by 20 + games.
The Bucks are going 79-3.
Yeah, that Sixers win had me hopeful that they were about to turn a corner. But then, three more losses, none of which were close. But they have another winnable stretch in their next seven games. I really need them to win 3, if not 4, of those games. If they only end up with a win or two in that stretch, then my wager is in real trouble. Right now, they are on pace to win 25. They have one tough stretch of games remaining in late March, but otherwise the schedule appears manageable. They just need to win a few more games against other non-playoff teams. This wager will end up being really close
I stayed away from betting the Lakers (I graded them as a 52 win team) because I thought the same about Davis. I love AD, but he tends to get nagging injuries. I also thought it would take longer for him and LeBron to get on the same page. He hasn't played with a big man as a top two option on the team since his early years in the league (and Z wasn't remotely the same kind of big as AD). Looking back, that was dumb analysis. LeBron is a brilliant basketball player and has been unselfish throughout his career. I should have known he would adapt quickly to a teammate with a different style than he is accustomed to
I saw them last night in person at the Arena , that team looks good barring injuries.
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