Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by BigShot55, Feb 9, 2021.
Well, this year does look bad for several teams—Pitt, AZ, Balt. etc., but historically, playing teams under 100 losses has been a good bet for at least the last 10 years. In fact, there have been only nine teams in the AL since 2010 who have lost 100 or more and only six teams in the NL. That's a total of only 15 times out of 300 chances and there were three years when it didn't happen in either league, or 30% of the time. But, sure, I deserve the popcorn eater.
Make that 10, missed one, and it has actually happened eight times in the last two full seasons, so it's possible the trend is reversing.
I merely disagreed that Pirates over is a good bet.
2015-19, teams with lines <65 wins are 0-3 (all went under). If expanded to <70 wins, then it’s 5-8. And all 5 teams in the <70 group in 2021 are trending under.
Well, their current losing streak doesn't look great. But the over was looking very good before that. They are only trending under at the moment because of the past week. Out of curiosity, I checked fangraphs and 538 to see how they currently project the Pirates. Both still have them reaching the over, but by a much smaller margin than a few weeks ago. So maybe it will end up being a close one
With 1/3 of the season left (54 games), all you need is for Pittsburgh to play .333 ball the rest of the way to get to 59 wins. They remain competitive (unlike, for example, the 2011-13 Astros), so I like your chances.
What could hurt is that since they have no shot at the postseason, a rainout or two late in September may not get made up. I won my under 73 in 2019 on the White Sox because they had a rainout on the final weekend and finished 72-89.
Well, over 75.5 win total for my Giants came in today. A return on my $22 bet of $40—LOL. I'm kicking myself, but really, who thought that multiple Giants would have career years—Gausman, DeSclafani, Crawford, Wade, Dickerson, Rogers, McGee, etc. I was confident they would be decent but I didn't anticipate their ability to hold their own against the Dodgers and Padres. I think my new motto is "In Farhan I trust" because Zaidi has been a miracle man. Every move he makes is magic. Two years ago he dumped Bumgarner, much to the chagrin of many fans, but kept Posey, Crawford and Belt—some of that was contract stuff but he just seems to have a good knack for putting players on the roster who can produce and his fellow former-Dodger Gabe Kapler as manager is the perfect fit.
Unfortunately, even if the Giants win the division they will probably have to face the Dodgers in the first round, which is tough considering they would dominate either the Brewers or whichever team the East produces.
They would dominate the Brewers?
How would that work, exactly?
Just beat the Brewers on their field 2-1. Giants would have home-field. I think the Giants provide the Brewers with many challenges, both offensively and defensively.
But, as a I said, if the Giants win the West they would have to play the winner of the playoff—Dodgers-Padres. And, if the Giants slip into second over the last 40+ games and the Dodgers win the division, it would still be SF-LA if we can beat the Padres. I have the utmost respect for the Dodgers—Bueller, Scherzer, Kershaw probably matches up better than Gausman, DeSclafani, Cueto. Still hopeful, however.
Bottom line, one of the teams from the NL West will win the pennant with the Brewers quite possibly getting into the NLCS because of the weakness of the NL East.
You do realize Avisail Garcia dropped a fly ball, which was out 3 in the 9th of Game 2 of that series and Milwaukee didn't have Josh Hader due to the COVID protocol?
Hell, Devin Williams didn't even throw in the two losses that Counsell still hasn't explained (both games lost in the 8th & 9th).
Milwuakee''s top 3 starters are only rivaled by the Dodgers and I'm not sure anybody matches the back end of the bullpen when they don't have COVID.
Giants are having a great year, but I'm not sure why anybody would think a team 25 games over .500 (who have dusted the Dodgers and Padres this year) would be dominated by San Francisco.
The Brewers could definitely win the World Series this year.
Well, then, right on, I'm glad we don't have to face the ferocious Brewers in the first round. Maybe we'll get the chance in the NLCS. Gee, when was the last time the Brewers won the pennant? Oh, maybe never.
You may want to rethink the maybe never?
Well, my research was bad. Brewers went to the WS in 1982. One pennant in 52 years. My apologies.
Well, after this series, I will have egg on my face. Giants are collapsing as I speak. They didn't address their starting pitching at the trade deadline and it is now haunting them. It was fun while it lasted, but congrats to the Brewers for such a stellar season. Good luck against the Braves and Dodgers.
They're still in first! And still have a winning record over the past week and a half. I wouldn't bail on your team so quickly
Been following this team since they moved from New York in 1958. Went to countless games at Candlestick, even saw a WS game against the Angels in 2002, so I think I know my team.
It's a good season—Farhan should be proud, but he needs for some of his prospects to step up in the coming years. This year, they will definitely hang on for a playoff game against the Padres, Reds or Cardinals, but I think the Dodgers, Brewers and Braves are superior. Our mix and match starting pitching rotation is breaking down, as could have been predicted when you go with retreads. I'm not bailing, just facing facts. I'll be at Oracle on Sept. 15 to root for them in a game with the Padres.
Anyway, I popped off, so I wanted to apologize to FormallyTD and if he's ever in AZ for spring training I'll buy him a beer in Maryvale.
I really don’t like the covid protocol issues with Woods and Cueto. It happens but they have a three game series against the Dodgers starting Friday, September 3rd, so timing is horrible.
They still might take the NL West but the Dodgers look strong right now and Kershaw should return soon. I’m impressed & baffled that the Giants have performed so well for so long this season. They deserve their props.
No apologies necessary @Michael Smith
Don't give up hope on the Giants just yet.
I guarantee I hate the Dodgers as much as you do and I'd love the Brewers to assist your cause that last series of the season (MIL beat LA 3 of 4 earlier this year). It seems like the Brewers are stuck in that 2nd Seed and I have a sinking feeling Counsell will be setting up his rotation for the NL East Champion and resting Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta altogether...which he should do, I guess.
Hope you guys can hang on for the Division.
I love baseball threads. This one got me to look up the White Sox magic #. It's 22. Every team mentioned in the thread with hi wins can win it. Yeh yeh yeh. I wait until the last 3-4 weeks of the season to follow who to think about betting. . The best team on paper seldom wins. Very often the the hottest, the healthiest, the best matchup & trends wins. . All of the top teams in the power rankings could lose if they're slumping or an injury to someone special. Who's hot or who's just limping into the playoffs. I know my White Sox are good but winning the whole thing, I don't know. If we get hot & stay healthy the last 1-2 weeks & field our best lineup, maybe. Regular wins do not equate to a championship but it gives a team confidence & home field. Just get hot White Sox & my national league Brewers stay hot. A 100 mile world series. Yes the Brewers not the Cubs.We're all fanatics of our fave team & hope for the best, but again, being hot with the big Momentum goes a long way. I don't need the most wins but health & the big Mo sure helps. Let's hope for a fun end of the season & playoffs.
Separate names with a comma.