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LIVE from Aria, a 36 hour sports betting spectacular!!!

Discussion in 'Vegas Trip Reports' started by UKFanatic, Aug 27, 2019.

  1. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    My Trip Report

    In approximately 12 hours, I will be on a dawn flight to Vegas for a one night stay at the Aria. There is one goal in mind: bet the NFL season!!!

    Seems like my sports betting discussion from last August's trip report was fairly popular (if you're really bored, you go here to read it and see how mediocre I am at predicting the season: https://www.vegasmessageboard.com/forums/index.php?threads/uks-august-adventure-a-live-tr.153700/). And since I am solo this year and the trip is super-short, why not write a live report.

    The plan is simple: arrive in Vegas tomorrow morning at the Aria skysuites. My host was kind enough to go ahead and check me in tonight so that my room will be ready for an early arrival tomorrow. Going to spend the morning at the tables and see if I can build up a bigger bankroll for the NFL bets. After that, I plan to go around and get NFL sheets from the various properties and spend the afternoon at the skypool deciding which bets to place. If everything goes well, I will spend tomorrow evening walking the Strip and eating a good meal. If the tables are cold in the morning, there is a solid chance I will be at a table somewhere chasing my losses. Then, I will sleep in Thursday and spend a relaxing morning in vegas before heading home around lunchtime.

    If the plane wifi connection is reliable tomorrow, I will spend part of the flight sharing my initial thoughts on the season and what I expect. And after I place the wagers tomorrow night and Thursday morning, I will share all those. If there's anything else you want info on or pictures of, let me know and I will do my best to provide!
     
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  2. Count de Monet

    Count de Monet Low-Roller

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    Looking forward to you sharing your thoughts. I'm spending most of this weekend drafting my fantasy teams so all points of view are appreciated!
     
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  3. FormallyTD

    FormallyTD Big Time

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    Claude Monet, you need all the help you can get, my man.

    Really glad you decided to do a TR for this one, UK. There just flat-out aren't any reports on here with a Sportsbook theme.

    Safe travels and good luck.

    Looking forward to seeing what you conclude after the evaluations.
     
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  4. drac999

    drac999 High-Roller

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    Sounds like a fun quick trip! I'll be interested in your picks, especially where the Brownies will end up! I bet on them to win the AFC Championships at 4-1 while in Vegas 10 days ago:headbang:!
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
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  5. Count de Monet

    Count de Monet Low-Roller

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    Yeah, my sports betting has been embarrassing lately. TD is referring to my perfect NHL playoff first round bets and parlays whereby I bet on every loser in the eight first round series. No where to go but up from there! Help me UK!
     
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  6. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Not sure how much individual player analysis I will offer, but some of it will be sprinkled in.

    Time to go pack
     
  7. amk121

    amk121 VIP Whale

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    That sounds like a lot of fun! Have a great trip and safe travels
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2019
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  8. MaxStacks

    MaxStacks Tourist

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    Good luck! Following along!
     
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  9. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Good Luck pal, :thumbsup::thumbsup::peace:
     
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  10. TomBrady'sLoveChild

    TomBrady'sLoveChild Tourist

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    I completely understand the allure of vegas but if this is a just a sports betting trip can't you just do it in Tennessee ? or Arkansas or New Jersey
     
    After two years and two surgeries I am finally going to VEGAS!!!!!!
  11. grosx2

    grosx2 Have fun storming the castle!

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    4-1 on the Browns to win a conference that includes the Pats, Chiefs, and Chargers??

    I'm not a huge sports bettor, but I do follow football fairly closely, and those odds seem atrocious...
     
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  12. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

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    Got my popcorn ready:popcorn:
     
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  13. Count de Monet

    Count de Monet Low-Roller

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    I'm a Browns fan but have to agree. Conversely, I bet on the Tribe in late June to win the WS at 42-1 which I thought was attractive odds.
     
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  14. FormallyTD

    FormallyTD Big Time

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    From a completely unbiased & objective viewpoint...from only but a sickening gut feeling in my organs for the deserving Cleveland faithful (and has nothing to do with any affiliation-o-mine)...

    I think the Browns/Dorsey's biggest mistake was trading for Beckham.

    They had a good thing going and bringing this basket case in only takes playing time from Colorado State University (the Cambridge of North America) LEGEND, Rashard 'H-Wood' Higgins...who should easily be starting for this franchise opposite Landry & is on the cusp of WR Extraordinaire.

    Big mistake and that alone is why their win total goes U.
     
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  15. NittyOne

    NittyOne Low-Roller

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    +1 Totally agree with this! Really looking forward to a sportsbook focused quick trip.

    @UKFanatic thanks for sharing with us.
     
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  16. NittyOne

    NittyOne Low-Roller

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    @UKFanatic if you plan on doing a decent amount in NFL futures and week one games I’d seriously consider entering the NFL handicapping contest at Circa sportsbook at the Golden Gate. $1000 entry with a $1M first prize guaranteed and a bunch of other prizes. There’s currently a $500K+ overlay.

    https://www.goldengatecasino.com/circa-sports/the-circa-sports-million-pro-football-contest/

    If I wasn’t terrible at handicapping NFL I’d do this in a heartbeat. I’m pretty sure if you call they’d send over a car to pick you up to enter. When I was there last month they’d had people they where driving in from the strip all the time to make entries. I think they’ll even help you get a proxy to put in your bets each week.

    Also if you’re picking up sheets for futures and other bets going downtown to compare this and maybe a couple other books there vs strip properties would be beneficial.

    Heck I think Derek Stevens should hire me.
     
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  17. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Not in TN. At least not yet. Mississippi is the closest venue to me. And it takes as long to drive there as it does to fly to Vegas
     
  18. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    Thanks for the thought, but I don't have much interest in these types of contests. I'm nowhere good enough at picking games to compete, so why do it. I will make enough season and individual games wagers that I will hve action for the entire season. And that's really the goal. I make so many bets that's its pretty much impossible for me to come out way ahead (or way behind). It gives me something to follow and root for each weekend. Sometimes I even make some college win total bets and I am terrible at picking college games. The hadnicapping contests, you have to be reallly good, really lucky, or both to have any shot. I prefer the week to week results
     
  19. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    The trip is officially underway! Only got about four hours sleep before driving to the airport and getting on my flight. Plaane is only half fulll, so plenty of room to stretch out, watch some downloaded tv (Mindhunter season 2!!!), and update this report. Scheduled for an on time arrival at 8:30. I am exhausted, so hoping the early action at the tables goes well and can then kick back and rela. The skypool is sounding really nice right about now. Will add a couple NFL thoughts in my next post ....
     
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  20. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    So I will not know which exact NFL wagers I am making until I sit down this afternoon and review the sheets. But I have completed my initial power ratings that I will be working from. Thought I would share my initial thoughts on the best and worst (feel free to criticize; I mean, like all sportsy people, I know I am right and you are wrong :evillaugh:; but seriously, I apppreciate a good debate).

    Super Bowl Contenders
    1. Kansas City
    2. New Orleans
    3. LA Rams
    4. TIE New Enngland and Philadelphia

    IMO, the SB winner will come from that group. That list is how I rate them, but they are all very close in terms of how good I think they will be. And at various times over the past couple months, I considered each of those for the top spot. Actually, I only settled on KC was my #1 two days ago and I was a bit surprised. But based on how I analyze teams, they are the clear favorite att the start of the season. Here are my details for each tem:

    KC: They still have an extremely talented offense and the D, whille still questionable, should be improved. This spring, my initial reaction was that the KC offense would have to regress. Mahomes can't repeat what he did last season, Hunt is gone, and who knew what was going to happen with Hill. But now Hill is back in the fold. I think Mahomes regression is inevitable (last season was arguably one of three best ever by a QB), but he's still playing the best of any of the QBs listed in my top 5 (sorry Brady fans; more on that below). Willliams and Hyde (who I still think has a lot to offer) aren't as good as Hunt, but they also aren't as much as a dropoff as you might think. The way their coach uses RBs, the position is pretty fungible. Combine those facts with probable home field advantage, and that's a recipie to overcome a below average defense.

    NOR: This team has the most balanced talent on both sides of the ball. But they have depth issues. If the Saints stay healthy, I think they make a run this year. Their starting D is extremely talented at all three levels. On offense, they have a few great weapons. If Brees has time, the coaches will find unique ways to use Thomas and Kamara. Plus, I think their division is weak this year. I think they win five of their division games, which meanns they only need to go .500 in their other games to reach double digit wins.

    LAR: They are not as talented as last year, but they are still very good. All the reports out of camp are that Gurley looks good. I am assuming Kupp comes back strong. If that is the case, then I think it gives them enough weapons where they won't have to rely on Goff to carry them. The defense is not as good as last year, but still has enough talennt to be top 10. Their home field advantage is a bit questionable. I don't think they want to play in New Orleans again. My guess is whoever has the home field between those two teams goes to the SB.

    NE: They were my top rated team until what happened to their center. I think most fans don't realize how important he has been to their success the past few seasons. Still, this team is improved on defense since the start of last year (their pass rush is still subpar, but the secondary played above expectations since last October). And wiith Gordon back, this squad offers the best lineup of receivers the Pats have had since the Moss, Stalworth, Welker days. And that said, the team will likely be a running based offense this year. Lot of talent in the backfield. Plus, the coaches are smart enough to recognize that Brady cannot carry them as he has done in years past. I know the Pats lovers won't like this opinion, but Brady has reached the point of being an average QB, especially on the road. And the road is where they need him most. The Pats only had two road wins against quality teams last year and if you're being honest, you know they were extremely lucky in one of them (KC). Brady had a few outstanding games last year (including that same KC road game) and he will again this year. But he is not consistently good anymore. Just look at the road games against the mighty Lions, Titans, and Fins last year. Or if you missed those games, go re-watch the SB! Brady played terribly (the defense won that game and I sill think Hightower or McCourty should have been MVP). Still, I like the Pats because while Brady may not be able to win them as many games as the past, he is also unlikely to make mistakes that will cost them the game. And the other weapons on offense should make up for the decline at that position. Plus, they play in the weakest division. Double digit wins is a given. I think they need homefield if they are going to make the SB again, but that's entirely possible.

    PHILLY: See what I wrote about New Orleans. This is a talented bunch, but not much depth. I like Wentz and think a healthy offensive line should keep him upright better than they did to start last season. Health is the key here. Plus, I like their schedule. if they can get to five wins by the bye week, the remaining schedule is very favorable to them (the toughest games are at home). They could easily roll into the playoffs on a six game win streak.

    OK, kind of tired now. So going to try and get some rest before I arrive in Vegas!