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Let's bet some baseball

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Mr. Brownestone, May 11, 2019.

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  1. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

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    My post wasnt for you pal....what's with the attitude
     
  2. TXactuarial

    TXactuarial High-Roller

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    Subscribed for my upcoming trip. Heard south point has interesting props.
     
  3. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    I'm sorry, I felt like interest in the thread had died. I don't mind continuing to post plays here. Again, they are a copy/paste of what I post at a different forum so it really isn't any work.

    Again, I just didn't want to clog up the board with stuff people are not interested in. Seeing that at least a few would like to see the plays I will resume posting for tonight's card.

    Good luck all.
     
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  4. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Friday May 24th

    SD -120

    I'm reminded of a quote from Animal House that "Fat, Drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." because betting on SD as a favorite is no way to make money gambling. However, Toronto does not hit LHP well and is the majors worst team batting at home. Lucchesi is at least good enough while Thornton is anything but. A WHIP of 1.54 in his last three and 1.7 overall means he's gonna give up hits, even if SD isn't the best hitting team to back.

    HOU +130

    I must be in a mood to hate myself a little today because as much as, being from Pittsburgh, I dislike all things Boston but I really do like Chris Sale. Unfortunately he's just not been good this year, at all. Houston has some injury issues to be sure, but they are still a top 10 team against LHP and a top 10 team hitting on the road. HOU has Wade Miley going who just doesn't get enough respect. He's a solid pitcher who gives his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. They expect to get 6 innings out of him and all but once he's gone 5+ and has a WHIP of 1.17.

    STL -150

    I'm at the limit of what I will lay here on this game at -150 and it's mostly a fade on Foltynewicz as the guy just can't pitch anymore. Both STL and ATL hit well enough and if I didn't suck so much at totals I would play over 9.5 in this one. As it is I'm backing the better pitcher figuring we outscore ATL in this one.


    That's what I got tonight.

    Good luck all!
     
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  5. Birdie7

    Birdie7 Low-Roller

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    I enjoy your post.
     
  6. Stinkfinger

    Stinkfinger Tourist

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    I’ve really enjoyed your posts. I stopped commenting as I didn’t want to clog up the thread. Thanks!
     
  7. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    2-1 on tonight's plays. STL was an embarrassment. At least twice they had a runner on third with less than 2 outs and failed to score. Maybe it's selective memory, but that seems to be happening a lot more this year than ever. Maybe it's just me.

    In any event we make .8 units tonight and grind on.....


    Total for the plays I have posted in this thread:

    14-10 -.3 units
     
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  8. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron High-Roller

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    Keep the posts coming - nice job!!
     
  9. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    I'm glad you said that because I encourage you (and everyone) to post. I'm not looking for a pat on the back when I win, but I like to encourage conversation around the plays, win or lose. We will only get better at this if we discuss WHY a play was or was not +EV. I have said before I post plays at another board and in all honesty have pretty much stopped posting them there because that site, like the entire internet, is very polarizing. I feel like people really only want someone to post "Play team A" and make them a fortune and they aren't interested in the why or why not of a particular play. If I'm investing my gambling cash into a play I really want to know why I should whether that is my own work or not. The stock market attracts the same kind of people.

    People fail to realize there is no single "right" way to go about this and they sure don't realize that you can be on the +EV side of a wager by a good bit and still lose and it doesn't mean you got it wrong (though sometimes you do), all you can do is forecast the most likely happenings and, over time, be on the right side more often than not.

    If there was one right way to go about this then the boys at MIT would be writing a second book about how they took down Vegas. If spitting out numbers on a spreadsheet lead to riches and glory the books would be forced to stop taking action, no business is in business to lose money. The fact is, things change and even winning handicappers have to change or ultimately not be winning handicappers. When something is working the line makers will adjust. A good example is me being sure I'm not the only one who knows the LA Angels can't hit LHP. For a while last year they were an auto fade against LHP as they were still being listed as a favorite a lot of times. Even last night they were -170 against a LHP, just not a good LHP and I couldn't pull the trigger. For those that backed LAA on that line, well, it was a tough night as they lost 4-3.

    It's not just the line maker that changes things, things in the game change. Baseball is into its second century of being played and good pitching still beats good hitting, but things like the shift and managers wanting to use an "opener" before their starting pitcher takes the mound gives us more things we have to consider.

    The handicapping game is ALWAYS changing and we need good conversation to stay ahead of the man. This thread isn't about me or me wanting attention, it's about us putting our heads together and finding a way to win.

    Conversation is encouraged, as well as winning pick!
     
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  10. Dentastic

    Dentastic Stripburger!

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    Very casual sports bettor here. Please keep posting. I enjoy hearing about your reasoning as well. I put some thought into my picks but not quite as much as you. I seem to do ok with baseball, average at best in football, totally suck in hockey (which, oddly, is actually my favourite sport and where I feel most knowledgeable).
     
  11. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Saturday May 25th

    MIN -260

    Honest to god every time I type out a juice number that starts with -2xx I say I'm not gonna do it and I'm sure it's cost me more money that it's made me lifetime, but how can MIN not be good in this spot. A top 10 hitting team against LHP going against a LHP who has a WHIP over 2, OVER 2! CWS doesn't hit anything well and MIN trots Gibson out who's recent outings have been very good against much better competition. MIN is at home where Gibson does his best work. CWS is a bottom half team against LHP and bottom half hitting on the road. This combination, while expensive does seem worth it to me. Here's hoping the day doesn't start off in a giant hole.


    ARI EV

    I really like this spot and think we are getting a very fair price on this one. The top LHP hitting team in the league goes against a sub standard LHP in Suarez. He's only had one start this year and it wan't awful, but it wasn't great either. Again, Arizona mashes LHP and while playing in SF is a downgrade in stadium friendliness I think the hit total certainly favors the Diamondbacks in this one. ARI throws Taylor Clarke who's only has two outing this year but they were both solid against much better hitting teams. SF is 29th out of 30 teams in both home batting average and batting against a RHP. I'm not sure who I wouldn't take at even money against them, but I'm certainly taking the league's top LHP hitting team and one that hits .265 on the road.


    LAD -200

    I feel like I am begging to take a beating today one way or another, but being from Pittsburgh I can tell you the Pirates aren't as good as their meager record would even indicate. Josh Bell is a stud and will likely be shipped off soon because that is what this trash organization does with good players that will become expensive. Other than that the pitching staff that was supposed to be their strong suit this year just isn't. Yes, Musgrove held it together longer than I would have imagined, but I watched his last outing against SD and he just looked tired from the word go and got shelled. Even if he doesn't get knocked around the park today he may have to throw a shutout just to get a ND as I don't see the Pirate bats mustering much against Ryu who has been all but lights out this year. Seriously, the Pirates are 26th in the league of 30 teams against LHP, do you really think Ryu is the guy to get healthy against?


    ATL -120

    I got this matchup completely wrong last night, but you have to have a short memory in this game and this isn't a reaction to the loss last night rather this is about the pitching matchup. The bats are pretty much even on both sides and STL throws Dakota Hudson who has really only had one decent outing recently. Atlanta throws Soroka whos only loss was against ARI in a game he gave up 4 hits and a single run. Since then he's won 5 out of 6 starts with a ND coming against ARI where he again gave up only 4 hits and 1 run. We get MUCH the better of the pitching matchup here today for a very fair price. Good pitching still beats good hitting.


    That's what I got today and yes, I am exposing myself to a good bit of chalk, but I do see value here even in the expensive plays.

    Good luck all!
     
  12. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Remember when Lucy would pull the ball away from Charlie Brown when he wanted to kick a field goal and the result was him flying through the air screaming "AAAAAAARRRGGGGG"? Yea, that was me last night when ATL blew the 1 run lead in the bottom of the 8th inning to cost us the sweep yesterday.

    As it is 3-1 +1.8 units bringing the thread total back into the positive again at :

    17-11 +1.5 units

    For the sake of discussion, the ATL game last night was what I think is a good example of being on the right side of EV and just not winning. Soroka again threw the game we expected him to and ATL scored what could have been enough runs only for Winkler to completely meltdown in the 8th giving up 4 hits and 4 runs on his way to crushing our dream of a sweep, thanks for that. I would make the same play again in the same situation.
     
  13. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Sunday May 26th

    SD -140

    Not gonna lie, the price is higher than I want, but it's still a good spot to pick on the Blue Jays. Until the Jays show us they can hit the ball it's gonna be hard not to fade them when facing decent pitching. Paddack is certainly at least decent. 4-2 this year and and a WHIP of .76 is almost unsustainable. He faces a poor RHP hitting team and a team ranking last in hitting at home. SD won't knock the cover off the ball, but they should score enough off Stroman to get the job done. Don't expect a blowout, but a 5-3 type win will suffice.


    Cubs -160

    Again the line maker seems to be gunning for me today. The Reds don't hit LHP very well and Quintana has had some good outings recently with the exception of his last game against the Reds. That game was in Cincy where the Reds hit much better than on the road. Quintana also pitches much better at home so I expect a more predictable result today. Tanner Roark can be had and especially on the road. The Cubs handle RHP with the best of them and I expect the result to be, again, predictable today.


    I know there is a full slate today, but that is all I see where the price isn't outrageous and we get the best of the matchup. I'd like to get more action in today but I'm not gonna force it and I recommend nobody else does but as always, do as you wish.

    Good luck all.
     
  14. Stinkfinger

    Stinkfinger Tourist

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    I used to bet horse races when I was younger. Never made money at it but broke even usually by waiting till post time and taking horses that were at a discount to the morning line. As a lower roller in Vegas made for a fun day in the sports book. They gave drink tickets much easier then. I could bet all day at 2-4 dollars a race and between all the tracks racing I could fine what I was looking for pretty easy. By dinner time I usually was still even with a heck of a buzz and a stack of drink tickets for the evening. For sports betting until this thread I never realized baseball betters used the same basic idea of looking for risk reward in regards to the line. Of course in baseball your looking at the line verse the odds maker where as horse racing your going against the other gamblers.
     
  15. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron High-Roller

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    You are going to have these type of days - when I lose I like to lose like you did today rather than some bottom 9 bullshit
     
  16. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Thanks, I hear you. I guess in the big picture it's not how we win or lose but THAT we win or lose. Ass kicking's cost the same as a one run loss.

    It's time like that I imagine myself in Vegas trying to do this for a living and having to question everything about my method of handicapping games when two games like that happen in the same day. I think it must be a lonely feeling.

    Maybe this is worth a thread of its own, but that has been my mindset for a while now. I really am trying to be dedicated to treating this like I would if I were doing it for a living. I have a bankroll set aside and I'm sticking to 2% of that bankroll for plays and tracking units won/lost, etc.... I know one season, and certainly only part of a season, is not a good sample size, but I know what my results have mostly been the last couple of years and this is really about trying to see how many units I can win (or lose I guess) each month to see how much I would need to bet per unit to replace even half my income as well as what kind of bankroll that would take.

    I know it's not going to be a reality, but working towards that goal really gives me a reason to focus. "It's not the kill, it's the thrill of the chase", right?
     
  17. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron High-Roller

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    Exactly right! I will be following along and wish you the best of luck!!!
     
  18. srudude87

    srudude87 Low-Roller

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    This Pirates team is easy to bet right now. Keep doing the over 1st 5 inn except when Lyles or maybe Musgrove starts. Bell helps the total by hitting a HR each game. Also bet against the Nats when Scherzer starts. 2-10 now, couldn't even beat the Marlins. I have Doolittle on my team. He can never get a save opportunity because Suero and the rest keep blowing it.
     
  19. alexm

    alexm High-Roller

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    @Mr. Brownestone I love this thread and check it regularly. I'm not a huge baseball guy and really love the insight. I am much more into CFB and NHL so I am trying to look at baseball through your lens. It has been very helpful. I love the bankroll management strategy. Mine is nearly identical, I am 1% of the bankroll and re-evaluate weekly during CFB and monthly during NHL. I also split my bankrolls and keep separate so I can figure out how I am doing per sport. I am putting some "pizza money" on your plays and learning. Hopefully next season I will establish an MLB bankroll, but I just don't like betting where I am not comfortable.

    As to a response on here about needing at least 3 plays a day. That's top 5 worst things to want a bettor who wants to profit. You only bet on a play where you see value. I have had CFB days with 2 or 3 plays and have had days with 30. I have gone as many as 5 nights without a play in the NHL and then sometimes bet a whole card on a night.
     
  20. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Tuesday May 28th

    CWS -170

    I got pretty far into today's card before I found a playable game and of course the price is on the top end of the scale of what I'm willing to risk, in fact I may just be desperate for a play so take it with a grain of salt. Both teams are mid pack against the respective handedness they are facing, but I'm willing to back Giolito in this one against Brad Keller. Keller hasn't been stellar and I think he's a better pitcher than he's shown, but the result (as they say) don't lie. He's 1-4 in his last 6 starts and a recent WHIP of 1.53 which is actually slightly worse on the road. Gio on the other hand is 3-0 in this last three with a WHIP of .71. He beat Toronto twice in those three wins, but he also beat the Astros in Houston. I'm paying up for Gio tonight.


    Sadly, that is really all I can find. All the really good matchups are outside of the price I am willing to pay and too many teams are turning to that ridiculous "opener" to start the games and I am just not sure how we look at those.

    Good luck all.
     
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