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Let's bet some baseball

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Mr. Brownestone, May 11, 2019.

  1. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    Before "black monday" I think I had 22 outs, now I have 3 which is fine for the time being.
    I know anything can happen at anytime but of the 3 there is only one I would feel jittery about (Tony) given what happened recently but maybe Im concerned over nothing.
     
  2. Stinkfinger

    Stinkfinger Tourist

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    As a newb at this thanks for all the advice. I’m sure if you have a good bankroll somewhere it could be pretty scary for legal reasons like what happen with the poker accounts.
     
  3. alexm

    alexm Low-Roller

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    @Mr. Brownestone This is great information!! Something to consider especially in games like the angels / orioles is to look at the run lines. I had two apps with the run line on the angels at near even and one closed +110 for -1 1/2. Your handicapping seems pretty spot on for that and it's a great way to shave some juice.

    Even the rays game the r/l was -125 which might have saved some juice.
     
  4. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    I'm kinda stuck on that line of thinking. I've lost so many games when the favorite wins but doesn't cover. I'm not sure the juice savings is worth it in the long run. You've inspired me to pay closer attention as it's something I've been meaning to do.

    Currently for the season favorites are 59.8% for the year straight up, but 43.6% against the spread. That's a lot of losses to overcome to make up for the juice. Now, a good number of those are likely favorites who failed to win at all and thus, you are correct, we would at least save the juice on those losses. What I need to track are the favorites that win by exactly one.

    I do know when I do play the run line I try to always take road teams when laying that -1.5 simply because you short yourself an entire inning on the home team because if they do bat in the bottom of the 9th the games ends when they get up by one run, excluding the walk off multi run HR's that do happen. More often than not you get the home team to lose or win by exactly one when they hit in the bottom of the 9th so you better be sure you only need 8 at bats to cover the spread.
     
  5. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Monday May 13th

    CLE -150

    Make no mistake about it, if you look at the season numbers it is hard to back the Indians hitters against anyone. A closer look shows us that those bats are coming alive as they are among the top hitting teams the past 7 days and they draw a favorable matchup against against Lopez who's last outing was against these Indians and he gave up 9 hits and 3 ER in 6 innings to get a ND in a game CWS lost. He's been knocked around a couple times this year except when going against a team like DET. Cleveland throws Bieber who's numbers are exactly what you would expect from him and he draws a lineup in CWS that K's 23% of the time against RHP.


    ARI -170

    I genuinely don't care that the Pirates hitters looked like "The Lumber Company" of the late 70's against ST this past weekend, some things you just can't explain. What I can explain is they likely won't have that same success against Robbie Ray who is a guy that doesn't like to pitch to contact. He got off to a slow start this year, but his last three have been against decent hitting teams. On the other side of the coin Nick Kingham is a fly ball pitcher in a stadium that favors the long ball. If Kingham's control isn't on point tonight and he starts walking batters this one could get ugly early. This is one of those games where I will also play the over thinking I might win both, but won't likely lose both.


    SEA -125

    For purposes of this thread we are just talking about my ability to handicap games, wins vs losses, that's it. In real life I'm laying the wood to this game as I see the line off by a good bit. Fiers comes off the monster outing against the Reds who happen to be the absolute worst team in MLB against RHP. I'll never discount a no-hitter even against a poor hitting team, but when Fiers throws against decent hitting teams he's not that same guy. SEA is MUCH better against RHP than CIN. SEA throws Kikuchi who has impressive outings against just about everyone except LAA which is tough to figure A WHIP of .51 in his last three and 1.1 for the season should pose problems for an OAK lineup that K's at 22% vs LHP.

    Good luck all.
     
  6. alexm

    alexm Low-Roller

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    Makes total sense. Historically road favorites win by exactly 1 run about 11% of the time and cover about 43%. Now if only we could hit just those 43% life would be great! Loving these plays! Keep it up!
     
  7. Dr Nostron

    Dr Nostron High-Roller

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    Will definitely follow along - thanks for posting!!!
     
  8. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Post mortem from yesterday:

    2-1 +.5 units

    Total for the thread 4-4, - 2.9 units.

    Cleveland was a disappointment as their bats just did not show up getting all of two hits, Bieber got knocked around the yard. Complete miss on m part there.

    Seattle wins me some nice coin, but not exactly as advertised. We get the win in the bottom of the 10th despite being down a run in said inning. I've learned that you will sometimes lose games you should win and win games you should lose and those tend to balance out in the long run so I'll take this one even thought I feel a bit dirty about it. Kikuchi pitched a pretty good game not giving up many hits like predicted, only five hits in six innings, the problem is three of them were HR's for Oakland. OAK ended up with ten hits, five of them left the yard. Tough to factor that in......


    Still working on today's games and will post again in a little bit.
     
  9. Smileyvu

    Smileyvu Tourist

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    Keep betting the high favorite by the end of the season. You will lose more than winning. I would consider betting the run line with the high juice.
     
  10. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Tuesday May 14th

    Cubs -110

    First game on the slate and I think we have an advantage at a good price in this one. We get the Cubs bats which are ranked 5th in the league in terms of average and 4th in OPS vs RHP against the Reds bats who are ranked 30th and 26th. A decided advantage there. The pitching matchup is a bit tougher to discern on the surface but if we peel back those stats we see the Cubs sending out Kyle Hendricks who's last three have been against MIA, STL and ARI. Of those only STL is a real threat against RHP and he held them to 4 hits going 9 innings and allowing zero runs. My only concern is Hendricks doesn't pitch as well on the road as he does at home but his previous road starts are against better hitting teams than CIN. CIN throws Tanner Roark who's stats are impressive this year. 3-1, 2-0 in his last three and a WHIP of 1.16 in those three games. A closer look at his wins show they've come against OAK, SF and SD. The best of that bunch vs RHP is SD ranked 22nd in the league so it isn't like he's racking up wins against teams who pound RHP. I think we are getting a break on price here because of the disparity in top line stats, which is all most bettors look at. The deeper look shows we get the better batters and the better pitcher at a very favorable price.

    STL -125

    I'm giving STL one more opportunity to not burn my cash or I may have to put them on ignore. Their bats are too good to be struggling like they are 2-8 in their last 10 is unacceptable. I look for them to break out of that nonsense against Foltynewicz who just isn't the pitcher the Braves need him to be. He's 0-2 in three starts this year and got knocked around the yard by SD, yea, SD. STL throws Flaherty who is only 3-3 this year but the three losses are against MIL, CHC and PHI. In two of those games he got exactly zero run support. I look for that to change tonight and STL to win a road game.

    KC -150

    Texas struggles against, well, pitching, but they really struggle as a team vs LHP and while Danny Duffy may not be the best LHP in the game Texas will help him out by striking out at a rate better than 25% against LHP. His mound opponent is Shelby Miller who I just can't see backing in his current form. I won't say he's the worst pitcher in MLB right now but he does have more BB's than K's. KC is at least in the top half of the league against RHP and Miller should only make that number improve tonight.


    Good luck tonight!
     
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  11. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    We did talk about that a couple posts up. It's worth looking at for sure. My local casino offers -1 at a decent reduction on juice and I'm more willing to risk the push to save juice than I am that one run win that turns into a loss.

    Again, it's worth looking into for sure. I suspect like everything else, you have to be selective when doing it.

    Edit to add= I've considered splitting my betting unit in half when it comes to favorites over -150 and laying half a unit on the money line and half a unit on the run line. If we win by one it turns it into a push, win by more than one and we make a little extra, lose outright and we do save some juice. Again, worth looking into.
     
  12. RichL58

    RichL58 Tourist

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    Easy wins today, good job.
     
  13. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    A very nice 3-0 night last night brings us to:

    7-4 +.1 units

    It's good to be back in the black if even just the smallest amount. Hopefully things take off from here.
     
  14. alexm

    alexm Low-Roller

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    @Smileyvu I'm going to completely disagree with you on not being able to profit by betting favorites, it's all about the handicapping which @Mr. Brownestone is doing well. If you just blindly bet big favorites you are going to get smacked around as that is the typical recreational player techniques. I see it all the time in CFB with 9-10 team ML parlays of -250 and up faves that don't cash. But I made a good chunk of change with smaller parlays on ML faves that handicapping showed value on. With a small number of concentrated plays money can be made. Most sharp hockey bettors made a mint betting first period overs this season despite some games being -250 and more on the over 1.5 goals in the first period.

    That being said I agree with you completely on trying to save juice and encouraged runline as well.

    Something else to consider and it has paid decent dividends in the past is to do a round robin parlay of these bets. That allows you to cash or break even often if 2 of the 3 hit which is the clip he is hitting at, and allows for a decent profit on 3/3 days. During hockey I would typically do 1st period overs in 2-4 games depending on teams and if 3 or 4, i would bet straight up and round robin for 2 and 3. I had some pretty decent nights when I would go 4/4 or 3/3
     
  15. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

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    Wednesday nooner

    Twins -145

    Pujols out, Odorizzi having a nice year
     
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  16. syim

    syim Newbie

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    Looking good
     
  17. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Wednesday May 15th

    MIL +110

    We get Gio Gonzalez as an underdog? Ok, it's a small dog and by the time first pitch is about ready to go I'd imagine this line moves close to -110. Milwaukee is a pretty good hitting team and I know it's Arrieta on the mound, but he's not the same guy that was basically a death sentence years ago. He's got 4 wins this year and 3 of them are against MIA, NYM and MIA again. Not the stiffest of competition. PHI is just OK vs LHP and Gonzalez is among the better ones in the league. I'm not sure if I'd play this at -120, but getting Gonzalez as a dog puts this in the playable spot for me.


    NYM +140

    The Nats bats are in a free fall and Font isn't a bad option to start this game. He won't go many innings, maybe 4 and it will be pitching by committee after that. Also in our favor is the fact the Mets can actually hit LHP and Corbin isn't exactly someone to fear with his 1.44 WHIP in his last three starts. I'm really just fading the WAS bats which are 24th in the league against RHP and dead last over the last 7 days.


    TEX -130

    KC is straight up struggling against LHP and Mike Minor may not be the best LHP in the league, but he's good enough to keep these miserable bats at bay. His mound opponent can't say as much. TEX is only mid pack against RHP, but it's Jorge Lopez who's brings a WHIP of 1.92 and an ERA of 9.69 in his last three. I'm of the opinion anytime a pitcher gets his WHIP over 2.0 it might be time for a minor league assignment and while the TEX bats aren't stellar, they are better than minor league opponents.


    There is more that looks really good tonight, I'm just not laying the price. Houston with Verlander, sure, but not at nearly 4-1. The Yankees look mostly solid but not at -250. Even a parlay on those two together is -133. I'll pass and stick to the above three.

    Good luck all.
     
  18. Mr. Brownestone

    Mr. Brownestone Low-Roller

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    Good call, sir.
     
  19. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

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    Padres under 8 -115

    Just going with the money flow here
     
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  20. 93 Octane

    93 Octane Chief bottle washer

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    TY!
     
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