1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Largest bet of the season

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Joe12794, Oct 12, 2021.

  1. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots

    There is a strong chance this will be my largest bet of the season barring health issues.

    New England: The Patriots are a 4-1 team masked as a bad 2-3 team. They completely outplayed the Dolphins in week 1 but lost due to one player fumbling at the end of the game. And although you could say either team could have won in the Bucs/Pats game, they played well enough to win that game as well. This past week, everyone saw New England struggle vs a Texans team that has looked awful; however it's important to note Mac Jones was playing without 4 starting offensive lineman. Their offense was destined to struggle in that game which led to a lot of quick drives and punts. In the end though, they still escaped with the victory. I see New England as a capable 4-1 team that is about to get healthier.

    Bill Belichick said after the game he couldn’t remember a game from his entire coaching career when so many replacements up front were needed. Three practice-squad linemen were called up for the Houston game.

    Dallas: Nothing makes a team more overvalued than winning a bunch of home games against bad and depleted teams. Dallas just had the luxury of playing three straight home games, and did so against Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, and Mike Glennon. If we look closer however, we will see they faced Jalen Hurts when he was missing multiple offensive lineman, Sam Darnold when the Panthers were missing at least 5 starters due to injuries, and this past week faced the Giants who were playing without QB Daniel Jones, LT Andrew Thomas, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Darius Slayton, and RB Saquon Barkley. Dallas is a good team, but over the past three weeks nobody has had it easier than them schedule wise.

    Patriots +4 locked in for 8 units and monitoring their practice report throughout the week likely adding more.

    Tampa Bay Bucs @ Philadelphia Eagles

    Buccaneers: Considering what Tampa is going through right now, touchdown road favorites against an underrated Eagles team is absurd. The Bucs will be playing this game without two starting cornerbacks in Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis. Their replacement cornerback Richard Sherman, has given up 21 catches off 29 targets so far for 199 yards and 4 TDs since joining the team two weeks ago. Their starting safety Antoine Winfield is still in concussion protocol, he is questionable to play but did not practice yesterday meaning he's closer to doubtful. Their best linebacker Lavonte David, is out. On the offensive side, Brady sustained a thumb injury at the end of the Miami game which needed to be heavily wrapped in practice this week. He will also be without Rob Gronkowski for another game. The Bucs blasted the Dolphins by 30+ this past weekend in Tampa, however Miami is one fumble away from being 0-5 on the season right now. The Dolphins, and the Eagles - should not be grouped together as similar quality of opponents this season.

    Philadelphia: Despite facing the 5th toughest schedule in the league up to this point, the Eagles are sporting the 3rd best yards per play differential in the entire NFL - trailing only the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns. Although a small sample size thus far, their coaching staff has done a phenomenal job up to this point. Miami is #23rd. For reference, New England is #5, and we saw how much Tampa struggled against them.

    Waiting on final injury report to determine unit count but I think eagles win the game straight up.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2021
    • Like Like x 4
  2. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty Doing retirement again and happily so....

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2003
    Messages:
    12,767
    Location:
    Texas
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    65
    Jerry!! Jerry!!! Jerry!!!! :woot::popcorn:


    :poke:
     
  3. AlPal

    AlPal Vegas Addict

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2019
    Messages:
    969
    Location:
    Michigan
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    53
    This is funny, the only game I have as a lock this week is Dallas -4. Guess we will see!
     
    Trip 54. 12/26-1/2?
    Trip 55 Super Bowl weekend with some friends
  4. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Haha it seems almost everyone has that locked it. I look more closely at things like injuries which most people tend to overlook. I’ll like have a 4-5 unit teaser invoking the Pats as well.
    Best of luck!
     
    • Like Like x 1
  5. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Boooo!! Hahahah
     
  6. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Brady, The Goat of all Goats. repeat LVI- #8

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2012
    Messages:
    6,026
    Location:
    Miramar , Florida
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    40
    Check the injuries , Patriots OLine is pretty banged up , and Cowboys are playing good ball .IMO Good luck.:peace:
     
  7. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Yep I’m aware haha. They have a number of linemen expected back this week. I’ll be monitoring throughout the week.
     
  8. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2010
    Messages:
    16,987
    Location:
    Tennessee
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    Not sure I agree with your analysis (the Pats O line has not played well even before the rash of injuries last week) and not sure why you're ignoring Dallas' first two games. That said, I think its a pretty sharp line. I handicap it as Dallas by 5. I'm not wagering the game so I'm pulling for you :thumbsup: I would simply caution against wagering too much on one game
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. mr.vegas

    mr.vegas Peace sells, but who's buying?

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,061
    Location:
    minnesota
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    28
    Your analysis seems correct about the teams Dallas has faced and about NE O - Line and reading your thoughts got me to put it in a teaser and not in a parley, but in the end I think Dallas has to much offensive fire power for NE, but I now do not think Dallas is a lock to cover the spread straight up.
     
    DEC 7 - 8
  10. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Remember how Pats limited the Bucs offense. I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Belichick will have the Pats ready for this especially after an 0-3 start at home.

    I also expect a quick start from their offense:
    "If we can start better and get ahead and get the lead and play from ahead in those situations, you generally then have more choices as to what you want to be in as opposed to what you have to be in," McDaniels said. "I definitely think there's more to those two guys being on the field together. There's no question about it in all situations that we're looking forward to trying to develop and again, hopefully, we can gain control of the games."
     
  11. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    I’m not discounting those two games at all. Bucs were overvalued coming into this season. They had a very lucky run at the end of last season:
    They went 8-0 to close the year, which included games against the struggling Vikings, Falcons twice, Lions, and then playoff games against rookie Taylor Heinecke, Drew Brees playing with cracked ribs (went on to throw 3 interceptions in the game), an injured Michael Thomas who needed ankle surgery in the off-season, and then getting the Chiefs missing 3 starting offensive lineman in the bowl. Every team needs some fortune to go all the way, but the Bucs were more than fortunate to close out the year. They were the healthiest team in the NFL during the season, and their opponents down the stretch were extremely unhealthy. It’s not surprise they nearly beat the Bucs.

    As for the chargers game this was a great spot for the Cowboys and I had a large play on them that game. Dallas is a legitimate contender who started the season 0-1 after missing the playoffs last year. The chargers made major upgrades this off-season and while that’s a plus long term teams often aren’t firing on all cylinders after a lack of continuity and teams that have a lot of continuity tend to do well. For example:
    the Bills, Colts, Chiefs, and Steelers returned the most starters in the NFL from the previous 2019 season. These 4 teams went a combined 50-14 on the year all making the playoffs.
     
  12. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Another note about the Cowboys/Bucs week 1 game is that the Cowboys were +3 in turnover margin and the STILL lost by 2. Turnovers in the NFL have a bit of luck involved in them and cannot be predicted accurately. Had the turnover margin been even the Cowboys probably lose that game by 15
     
  13. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2010
    Messages:
    16,987
    Location:
    Tennessee
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    I agree that you can't predict turnovers. But keep in mind that the true turnover margin in that game was 2, not 3
     
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
  15. fudgewapner

    fudgewapner Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2014
    Messages:
    448
    Location:
    Sunny San Diego
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    33
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Eagles +7 locked in for 4 units
     
  17. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Eagles getting bottled up on D and can’t make a tackle
     
  18. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Completely wrong side tonight. Got fooled by all the Tampa injuries
     
  19. Joe12794

    Joe12794 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2018
    Messages:
    232
    Location:
    Philadelphia, PA
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    2
    Upgraded the Pats to my largest play ever earlier this afternoon. Locked them in for an additional 6U and 1U on the ML once I saw more starting offensive linemen returning to practice.

    plays this week are:
    Eagles +7 4units
    Colts -10 5 units
    Patriots +4 14 units

    contemplating a play on the Ravens as well.
     
  20. bubbakitty

    bubbakitty Doing retirement again and happily so....

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2003
    Messages:
    12,767
    Location:
    Texas
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    65
    Going for 2 to make it a 6 point game or if failed, an 8 point game. Except the line was 7, I don’t get it :poke: Oh, I get it. Just thought a less obvious path was warranted. Like go for 2 to win on the next score. :poker: