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Kentucky Derby

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by volfaninbama, Apr 6, 2014.

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  1. luci5

    luci5 Low-Roller

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    I remember a few years ago when the computers at the Sports Books on the whole of the strip went down from 7am on Kentucky Derby day and were down most of the day. The casinos must have lost millions that day.
     
  2. Vinegarjoe

    Vinegarjoe Tourist

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    The Kentucky Derby has always been the race that you can make some serious $$ because of the size of the field and the fact that longshots can fill in those exotics.

    2005 - Giacomo at 50-1, 2009 Mine that Bird at 50-1. the $1.00 trifecta's paid $66K and $20K respectively. (win bets were both over $100.00, that's quite the return on a $2.00 wager, lol)

    Here is my amateur view on California Chrome.

    In Chrome's last 4 outings, he won by at least 5 1/2 furlongs in all 4 races against quality fields.
    From watching his replays, it seems he likes to stay in contact with the pace and then decides to leave everyone behind just before or at the quarter pole.

    The issues are: Has Chrome already ran his best this year ? How will he do if he gets an inside draw ? How will he do on a sloppy/muddy track ?

    I think he handles the distance easily if track conditions/post position are favorable.

    Even with all that being said, the betting public will probably back him huge, and we will be lucky if the odds on him get above 3/2.

    The chalks at the Derby always seem to find a way to get beat, (track conditions, post position, bad trip) but Chrome seems like the real deal.

    My betting partner and I will go with the following wager for the Derby (if Chrome draws mid to outside, its a dry track and he is above even money):

    Chrome $500.00 - Win/Place

    $1.00 Trifecta: All/All/Chrome

    If there is a wet track and/or poor post position for Chrome:

    We will bet a $1.00 tri key -using Vicar's In Trouble.

    Vicar's In Trouble/All/All
    All/Vicar's In Trouble/All
    All/All/Vicar's In Trouble

    (and pray a BOMB wins again, lol)

    Good luck everyone !!

    Vinegarjoe
     
  3. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    18-1 is looking pretty good with the morning line at 5-2 currently and likely to close around that number. Got a decent draw today in the 5 spot with good horses on either side of him. Plus his biggest competition in my opinion, Vicar's In Trouble, got stuck to the rail and to be punny is "In Trouble." If California Chrome can get a good break and not get pinched by Danza and Samraat, it should be his to take as he is the class of the field.
     
  4. klawrey

    klawrey High-Roller

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    With the post draw today I'm looking at #5 California Chrome, #11 Hoppertunity, #4 Danza and #10 Wildcat Red exacta boxed. And throwing something on #1 Vicar's In Trouble at 30-1 on the morning line who is in my opinion the second strongest horse in the field and if Rosie can push Vicar early and not get pinched to the rail she's got a chance.
     
  5. volfaninbama

    volfaninbama High-Roller

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    Well now that Hoppertunity scratched gonna have to rework all my bets.
    Gonna use California Chrome on top of all my bets still like Wicked Strong but not loving the 19 post position.
    Thinking of a superfecta CC with Wicked Strong, Dance With Fate, Intense Holiday, Danza and Samratt
     
  6. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    Damn DRF! I've been trying to download the form for tomorrow and Saturday. It just hangs. I went to their tweeter feed and they said they are having problems and they will be fixed in an hour, that was 3 hours ago. I guess it's nice to have a monopoly.
    Oh, their phone line has been busy all this time too. Not even a message.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2014
  7. PPtraderal

    PPtraderal Low-Roller

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    DERBY

    Brisnet has free past performances up for the Derby. Similar to DRF but speed figures are not Beyer's.
     
  8. Johnny Utah

    Johnny Utah Tourist

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    kentucky derby pp's

    How do you get the derby pp's from Brisnet. Sure could use them. Thanks
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2014
  9. Viva Las Vegas

    Viva Las Vegas Ramblin' Gamblin' Man

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    I can't access gambling websites at work, but I'd bet Wicked Strong straight up against any other horse, including California Chrome, in match bet wagering, which to me is typically the best value on Derby/Breeders Cup day.

    Your horse can finish in 19th and win, if the horse you bet against finished in 20th.

    Made big money with Bodemeister over Union Rags in a match bet the last time I was in town for the Derby.
     
  10. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    DRF still hasn't got it yet. They did allow for me to get the electronic Classic Edition though. If interested, pm me.
     
  11. Johnzimbo

    Johnzimbo VIP Whale

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    Candy Boy for the win...you can all thank me Saturday evening:wink2:
     
  12. BackInVegas

    BackInVegas VIP Whale

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    I basically know nothing about horse racing other than trainers and jockeys do matter. I liked Intense Holiday's look on the TV.

    I like to bet to SHOW a lot, but once in awhile I take a shot at a WIN when I have some super confidence.

    Intense Holiday to show. But, I am stuck at my house and I don't make any bets over the internet, so all I can do is watch for fun.

    I hope all the horses run well and stay healthy.
     
  13. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    Those kind of bets are called, Mind Bets. If you loose, never mind.:peace:

    I just bet a crazy exacta box bet. 4-8-16-19-20. Having a busy day getting ready for a short cruise tomorrow and wife isn't feeling well so I've been very busy. Good luck to all!
     
  14. redzone

    redzone Low-Roller

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    Nice call Slimmy. Hope you got him in the exotic.:nworthy:
     
  15. Buddha

    Buddha VIP Whale

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    I am not a horse-racing expert by any stretch ... however ..... I was surprised that California Chrome, as the race favorite, paid $4.20 to "Show". Seemed like a nice way to double your money ....
     
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