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Kentucky Derby/Triple Crown

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by Don the Dentist, May 3, 2018.

  1. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    I always bet a small amount, just to have a rooting interest. Looking for a medium priced horse (around 10 or 20 - 1).

    Any ideas?
     
  2. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike VIP Whale

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    at 20-1MIL Hofburg is very interesting, Don't think we've seen the best of him yet.
     
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  3. h0und10

    h0und10 Low-Roller

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    there are tons of 20-1 horses.. My guess is a few of them will get heavy action and move up closer to 7-1 I would steer away from the favorite (Justify) as i believe his odds will likely drop. if you like him wait until about a minute before the race then hammer him.
     
  4. Roccoscollar

    Roccoscollar High-Roller

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    Who else do the horse experts here like? I see Hofburg getting some love. Who else? I need some tips!
     
  5. Burnsie

    Burnsie Low-Roller

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    This is a very strong field this year, so you're going to get a good price on just about any horse except for maybe Justify.

    One of my bets will be a trifecta box with Audible, Good Magic, Justify, and Hofburg.

    Why? a) They're all damn good horses, and b) 5-6-7-9 is my license plate number. Among us expert handicappers, that's known as a "sign." Gotta go with it!

    If I had to pick one horse with the best chance to beat Justify at 10-1 or better, it would be Good Magic.

    If you haven't already checked here:
    http://www.drf.com/derby-watch
    ...has more commentary on each of the horses.
     
  6. Joe Strummer

    Joe Strummer VIP Whale

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    Good Magic 8 :1
    My Boy Jack 18 :1
    Flameaway 45 :1 ( just for sh*ts + giggles ! )
    .
    I never bet the favorites........I hope Good Magic odds don't drop
     
  7. Rush

    Rush In Time-Out

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    Fifty bucks on Junebug......Same name as my cat.
     
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  8. catman

    catman Low-Roller

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    There is no horse named Junebug in the Derby.
    However, Audible might drift up to 10-1. That would make him very interesting.
     
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  9. Guardian

    Guardian Low-Roller

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    I'd pick My Boy Jack. Just so I can say told you so.:whistle:
     
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  10. smartone

    smartone VIP Whale

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    I'm rollin' with some Good Magic! I see this morning he's down to 7-1. He's the reigning 2-year-old champ after winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, and he comes to Churchill Downs after winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last month.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2018
  11. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike VIP Whale

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    that's an homeage to Let It Ride, the movie
     
  12. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike VIP Whale

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    justify and magnum moon have the 139 year old curse of apollo haunting them. no horse that didn't race as a 2year old has won since apollo 139 years ago
    if either beats me, so be it.

    Mendelsson broke the record in dubai lasst out but only arrived at churchill monday and that overseas trip seems to take something out of
    the euros unless they've been here a couple of weeks to acclimate.

    good magic was the 2 yr old breeders champion and they usually don't win, but he does look good so i will be using him.

    I also like Bolt d'oro,and audible.

    I am going to play Hofburg across the board as my spies tell me he's kicking the barn door down.

    I am going for a six horse exacta box, trifecta box, and superfecta box of
    hofburg,good magic, audible, bolt, mendelsson, and justify...

    but hofburg is my pick to win it. going for telephone number boxcar payouts.

    may the horse be with you.
     
  13. FullPay

    FullPay When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro

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    Since they instituted the new points system to qualify the winners have been the favorites five years in a row. Justify with trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith have all the credentials. Wheel that horse in an exacta bet as the winner, or my favorite bet: wheel him to finish second with the rest of the field.
     
  14. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    After reading all the advice above and from the online handicappers, I'm going to go with Good Magic to win. I'll also put in an exacta box with Good Magic, Bolt d'Oro and My Son Jack. Might be a sloppy track would really shake things up.
     
  15. Burnsie

    Burnsie Low-Roller

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    I'm definitely with you on a Hofberg, Good Magic, Audible trifecta! That'll light up the board!
     
  16. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    My tradition is to go to Delaware Park and scream at the ponies on the big screen while my wife plays the VLT slots.

    Mike, Great intel Re: Mendelssohn, didn’t know it arrived from overseas on Monday.
     
  17. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike VIP Whale

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    but i just read a clockers report that he's taken to the churchill suface and is on his toes.
    but if he dips below 5-1, then it's dicey value wise.
    this clocker says noble indy is worth using.
    here he is schooling today
    [​IMG]
    parking lot:haha:
     
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  18. deansrobinson

    deansrobinson VIP Whale

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    I had a professor at Harvard on the Hillsborough (University of South Florida) who had the winning Derby ticket for over twenty five years. Had 'em all framed.
    Of course, he purchased a ticket for every horse entered, so that's not really gambling ... more or less some sort of collecting hobby.

    And my dad developed a bad habit of naming our horses after KD participants...Alysheba...Seattle Slew...Alydar. Mostly not broken, so much as taking up room in the pasture and keeping the grass at a decent level.
     
  19. hammie

    hammie VIP Whale

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    Mike, I just looked up those bets, do I have this right?

    6 horse superfecta $360
    6 horse trifecta $120
    6 horse exacta $60

    Delaware Park is an old timey place with a picnic grove with huge shade trees, they have a couple large outdoor tents with bars and TV’s. Also many $10 blackjack tables, 6 deck. They have a 6 player UTH video game as well. Next door is White Clay Creek Country Club with a dining room and an outdoor deck that sometimes has a band.
     
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  20. BlacklabberMike

    BlacklabberMike VIP Whale

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    yup, but i have a partner in crime on the bets....

    never made delaware park, but some 40 years ago i went to harrington to see my horse race in a sires stake.
    finished 5th in a five horse race.
    back then harrington was a dump of a track aspiring to be a dive.
    also hit brandywine a couple times back in the day.
    we raced mostly in delaware back then because one of my partners lived there and dominic maruso (sp)
    was our trainer.