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Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont Picks

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by volfaninbama, May 2, 2012.

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  1. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    My strategy is all on top with Ill have another.
    Or even better take all on top with Ill ahve another with all for the triactor, could pay big.

    Ill have another way over bet.
    11 horses since 1978 have went to the Belmont with a chance to win the TC and all have been over bet and none have won.
    Not sure why people think Ill have another is a great horse. He is good, not great.
    Good article:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/07/sports/belmont-stakes-will-be-a-long-ride-for-ill-have-another.html?pagewanted=all
     
  2. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

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    of course he is overbet: many are going with the heart, I am one of them. I will have a back up bet, not sure who, but probably Dullahan, but I got go with my heart and pray we have a Triple.

    Nita
     
  3. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    I have always said that if i see a horse with the TC i want it to be a great horse. Not just a good horse beating a mediocre 3 year old crop.
    ill have another isnt that good.
    Big Brown and Smarty Jones were much better horses.
    Thats why I am rooting against Ill have another.
     
  4. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    The crop of 3yos in 2008 (Big Brown) were inferior to this year's IMO. I think this is probably the best crop of 3yos since 2007. I'm not saying IHA is as good as Big Brown was, but I think he's definitely faced tougher competition so far. The field that Big Brown beat in the 2008 Preakness was an absolute joke. Frankly, I never really got a sense of just how good Big Brown was - I was always hoping he would face Curlin.
     
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2012
  5. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    True enough but Ill have another is not a great horse. Still hoping he loses on Saturday.
    Smarty Jones would have been a good horse to win the TC.

    Anyways, i am considering revising my betting strategy.
    I might try to cover it so Ill have another comes in second or third and i still win.
    all-Ill have another-all tricator for $1 costs $90
    and
    all-all-Ill have another for $1 costs $90 for a total of $180.


    and for good measure a $2 exactor all with Ill have another for $20
     
  6. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    You got your wish -- IHA won't win the Triple Crown. Doug O'Neill announced on Dan Patrick's show that he's been scratched and will likely be retired due to tendonitis.
     
  7. IxAccDnf

    IxAccDnf VIP Whale

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    maybe there really is such a thing as Karma
     
  8. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Are you serious? I just got back from lunch. hant looked yet
    That really sucks. That is not how i wanted the race to go... its really unfortunate.

    Not to gloat or say i told you so, but i firmly believe the Triple crown races are way to close together. It affects the health of the horse and is the main reason why it is my belief we will never see another Triple Crown winner.
     
  9. LushLife

    LushLife Tourist

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    Karma for what? I'm unaware.
     
  10. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    Only Karma i can think of that the poster may be talking about is the trainer is to begin a 45 day suspension for drug infraction starting July 1st.
    or the owner of the horse made his money running a sleazey pay day loan company, cash call, and a sub prime mortage company.
     
  11. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

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    and the sad thing is, according to the vet, it has nothing to do with over exposure, overwork or anything else, it appears to be a one shot injury. It appears he just stepped on something and the trouble started. What a sad day for the owners, the horse and the fans...

    I guess the field is now wide open.

    Nita
     
  12. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

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    Read the statement from the vet before you start glouting. It appears it was a freak accident, sometime in the past day or so. Nothing to do with work outs, races or anything else. It is more like a base runner who twists his ankle running to first base or the pitcher who slips on slightly wet grass and hurts his shoulder.

    Nita
     
  13. bigbooner

    bigbooner Low-Roller

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    I think he would have demolished this group. This certainly makes for a money making possibility. I am thinking 5 horse exacta box with current odds listed.

    Street Life 12-1

    Paynter 8-1

    Union Rags 6-1

    Dullahan 5-1

    My Adonis 20-1

    Hoping that my Adonis tries to steal it on the front end.
     
  14. shifter

    shifter Degenerate Gambler

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    sure it was a freak accident, but the strain on the muscles and tendons from all the workouts in the past 3 months definitely plays a part. same thing with guys having a higher chance of getting hurt in sports after long seasons or lots of games back to back, etc.
     
  15. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    What a shock, I really feel bad for Mario Gutierrez, the jockey the most. He is an underrated rider. He seems to almost always out ride his odds.
     
  16. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    You won't get anything near those odds now. The revised Morning Lines:

    1. Street Life 6/1
    2. Unstoppable U. 20/1
    3. Union Rags 5/2
    4. Atigun 15/1
    5. Dullahan 9/5
    6. Ravelo's Boy 50/1
    7. Five Sixteen 50/1
    8. Guyana Star Dweej 50/1
    9. Paynter 4/1
    10. Optimizer 20/1
    11. I'll Have Another SCR
    12. My Adonis 15/1
     
  17. TommyToledo

    TommyToledo Low-Roller

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    Am I the only one who smells something fishy here, with the rumors and speculation surrounding Doug O'Neill?
     
  18. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

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    There are a bunch of conspiracy theorists. I tend to believe in the simpler explanations.
     
  19. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

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    You are never going to have someone connceted to racing come out and say
    "yes the reason a horse got injured is because the triple crown races are too gruelling and too close together so we overworked the horse and pushed him to his limits"
    I watch racing all year long. I rarely see a horse breaking down on the track. But when you look at the TC series in the last couple of years, these breakdowns occur more often than normal races.
    I can write this every year on this board: You will not see a Triple Crown winner ever again if the 3 races remain the way they are today.
     
  20. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

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    I'll Have Another has been retired. They are going to parade him on the track tomorrow with the jockey.
     
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