1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Kentucky Derby, Preakness & Belmont Picks

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by volfaninbama, May 2, 2012.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2010
    Messages:
    446
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    1
    My Preakness pick is Bodemeister and my prediction is the Belmont will be won by a horse that did not race in the Derby or Preakness and is well rested.
     
  2. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Virginia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    23
    I agree. Winning the Triple Crown is not impossible. But it's very tough, as it should be. Not sure why some would say it's unattainable. Many have come close since the last one (and frankly, some of those horses were not what I consider freaks). And take Real Quiet's close call - he came up short because of a critical jockey error at Belmont.

    I don't want to see it changed just for the sake of trying to increase the odds of it happening.
     
  3. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2004
    Messages:
    9,135
    Location:
    So Cal 91748
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    300
  4. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2009
    Messages:
    139
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    I agree, having a triple crown winner isn't expected to happen very often, that is what makes it so special. Making it easier would be like saying, let's make all sport easier so we can have more winners.
     
  5. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2010
    Messages:
    446
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    1
    So lets not change the TC so that way none of us will ever see one again.
    I say its unattainable because the racing game has changed since the last time it happened.
     
  6. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2010
    Messages:
    446
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    1
    Chaning the TC would not diminish. It would also make it more safe for the horses. Rnnning them at those very long distances as young three year olds, with very little rest in between is not healthy for them.

    Games change and sports leagues adapt. Look at golf, equiptment has changed for the better, golfers are stronger and can hit longer, so they change the courses to make them longer to make up for the longer drives.

    If they space the races out over a few more weeks its not like its going to make it so much easier to win that there willbe a TC winner every second year. It will still be vary rare.
    Even if a horse wins the TC once every 15 years its still a once in a generation event, but come on it hasnt been won for 34 years!! and probably wont be won for many many more years to come, if at all in the current format.
     
  7. brianduane

    brianduane Tourist

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Messages:
    27
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    7
    For the Derby they wont let you bet .10 superfectas or .50 trifectas, can you bet them for the Preakness
     
  8. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2009
    Messages:
    139
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    I just don't buy your reasoning, I know what you are saying, but, if we never have one again, that is the way it will be. I am tired of changing things just to make it easier to win. This is like saying, let's make sure all kids get a trophy for playing on the team or let's make everyone happy by having everyon a winner. I guess some of us will just have to disgree on this issure. Maybe someday there will be changes, I hope not.
     
  9. may24

    may24 Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2010
    Messages:
    446
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    1
    I hear you, but what i am saying is I dont want it changed to make it easier to win. Its not about making it easier to win, its about changing it to become more in line with how racing is done in this modern era.
    I understand traditionalists haha.....

    No matter, I love the Triple Crown series, I start tracking and watching for contenders in February and follow my favorites all the way through the summer.
    Horse racing is going through some tough times right now just hope that the industry in general can survive.
     
  10. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2009
    Messages:
    139
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    It has been going through tough times for several years now. I too, as does my hubby, hope it will survive. It is sad, when you think of all those who enjoy the sport, the owners, who put their heart into it and the beautiful tracks all over the world..Why, it is suffering is anyone's guess. I was almost born at Santa Anita,way back when. I have been going to the track since AI was a little girl and my husband, who I met in college has been a fan as well. We follow a lot of sports, but racing is probably our favoirite or close.
     
  11. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Virginia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    23
    Bodemeister is confirmed for the Preakness. That means 5 of the Derby top-6 are in it (Dullahan is opting to rest and run in the Belmont). None of the newcomers look particularly strong.
     
  12. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Virginia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    23
    It will be a be a field of 11, with the post draw tonight at 6p. 6 return from the Derby and 5 newcomers.

    Tough betting race -- not a lot of value out there. Favorites invariably do well in the Preakness. None of the fresh newcomers look like a threat. So that will bode well for Bodemeister and IHA. They will likely be significant favorites. I figure, at worst, both will be 2-1 or shorter at post time.

    As such, I'm probably boxing Bodemeister and IHA at the top of a superfecta and look for 3 or 4 horses to box into the 3/4 slots. Hope for the best. Maybe play a trifecta with those 2 and a couple of the long shots.

    Frankly, to me, the more interesting race from a wagering standpoint is Friday's Pimlico Special (and Pimlico is offering a Special/Preakness Double wager). Very good field of older horses. Too bad it's not part of the main TV coverage Friday (it is on HRTV).
     
  13. bigbooner

    bigbooner Low-Roller

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2003
    Messages:
    326
    Location:
    maple valley, washington
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    25
    Me and my son both hit the superfecta for $424 and were pretty happy. Then after the race we discover they have a Super 5 also (which I had never heard of or played). We both had the numbers cold 7/9 to 7/9 to 6 to 2,4,8 and were left to wonder what could have been. Bet only cost me 6 bucks and not even sure if that same bet would cost more for the Super 5. Oh well it was fun anyway.
     
  14. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2004
    Messages:
    9,135
    Location:
    So Cal 91748
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    300
    I still feel that Bodemisters race before the Derby was a tough race and took too much out of him for him to be his best. I now feel that todays race, after watching the replays will be hard on both of these horses. Both horse ran their hearts out and that may be their downfall in the Belmont. I hope not. I so want to see another triple crown winner.

    Oh, and Bob Baffert is probably one of the best I've ever seen and I've seen a few in my years of horse racing. I knew him when he was a quarter horse trainer at Los Alamitos. He was great then.

    I didn't see the Preakness live today but did see the re-run while on a plane while coming home from a short cruise. My heart was with I'll have another and the kid that was riding him.

    As always, good luck in the Belmont. Please, one more triple crown winner.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2012
  15. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Virginia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    23
    I hit it too. I used the strategy above - and it worked like a charm. Boxed IHA/Bode on the top-2 lines and then boxed 4 horses on the 3/4 lines: Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, Zetterholm, and Went The Day Well. A $24 exotic pays $424. Not bad.

    I also boxed IHA, Bode, and CC in a 3-horse Tri. $70 isn't a bad payout for a Tri with horses with short odds.

    Other than not knowing who would win between Bode and IHA, the race went exactly like I expected. Like I said - the Preakness is for the favorites. They both put up impressive Beyer Figures: 109.

    Now on to the Belmont. No Bodemeister this time (not a surprise), but Dullahan looms.
     
  16. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2004
    Messages:
    9,135
    Location:
    So Cal 91748
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    300
  17. arkansas grandma

    arkansas grandma Tourist

    Joined:
    Apr 15, 2009
    Messages:
    139
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    50
    Well like a stupid idiot I didn't even think trifecta or anything similar. I was in Vegas and did have all 3, in the right order, unfortunately I only won a few $$s, well a few more than that but certainly not much. I had I'll have another across and the other 2 show bets only. It was still fun and I did fair that day. I just wish I would have stayed away from the slots.Actually I really didn't do badly on the slots that day, it was the rest of the days...

    Nita
     
  18. DonD

    DonD Super Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2004
    Messages:
    9,135
    Location:
    So Cal 91748
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    300
    Belmont

    My heart is with I'll Have Another but my money might be on Paynter & Union Rags. The form is now out. Need a copy? PM me.
     
  19. VegasBJ

    VegasBJ VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2009
    Messages:
    6,516
    Location:
    usually Shadow Creek
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    455
    What about Dullahan? Had good closing speed in the Derby.....
     
  20. Shot Clock

    Shot Clock Tourist

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    341
    Location:
    Virginia
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    23
    Dullahan has been sharp in training on this track. Good close in the Derby. Castellano knows the Belmont track well.

    Belmont, much like the Derby, is a tough one to handicap, since it's something completely new to the horse involved. It hasn't been pretty for favorites. But if you can find the right horse/play, it's had generous payouts the last decade. The last 4 years (and 6 of the last 10) have had $25+ payouts on $2 win bets.

    I'm probably going to tri-box IHA, Dullahan, Paynter, and perhaps Street Life. I'm definitely going to play Dullahan and Paynter in an EX-box with a little something extra.

    I'm throwing out Union Rags. He's only won once at over a mile and that was a against a weak field. Plus he seems to draw a lot of betting interest for whatever reason, so his odds won't be favorable anyhow. But who knows - maybe the jockey change will make a big difference.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.