1. Welcome to VegasMessageBoard
    It appears you are visiting our community as a guest.
    In order to view full-size images, participate in discussions, vote in polls, etc, you will need to Log in or Register.

Table Games John Partick on Money Management.

Discussion in 'Table Games' started by Ben Jammin, Mar 30, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Ben Jammin

    Ben Jammin VIP Whale

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,180
    Location:
    Cali
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    120
    John Patrick has saved me thousands of dollars by following his money management system. OK he's in left field on some of his gambling techniques in my humble opinion but on MM he is the King!

    I've also won allot of money by following his advice on how to bet when you're ahead, such as pocket half of your winnings and play out the remaining bankroll, and if you double that, pocket half of that too!

    You will always walk a winner if you have the DISCIPLINE to do this.

    Check him out !
     
  2. mescalita

    mescalita old and in the way...

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2012
    Messages:
    1,468
    Location:
    Tejas
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    29
    I've always thought John Patrick was full of crap - just saw this article by Timothy Dawson, poker and advantage player:

    Another in the long line of failed gamblers turned gambling writers, John Patrick began his career on the riverboat casinos of the old South.

    After trying, and failing, to earn a living at the tables, Patrick resorted to washing dishes by day, while serving as a “prop” player to keep short games going by night. Upon realizing that he didn’t have what it takes to win consistently, Patrick did what so many unsuccessful gamblers have done over the years – packaged his dubious knowledge into a strategy book.

    Through his “So You Wanna Be a Gambler?” series, Patrick wrote prolifically about blackjack (1983), slots and roulette (1983), and baccarat (1985) to launch his authorial ambitions.

    Along with the usual boilerplate explaining basic odds and probabilities, Patrick’s books were connected by one common thread… bankroll management. According to Patrick, succeeding at any casino game is eminently possible, provided players are willing to adjust their idea of “success.”

    Patrick advocates an extremely conservative style of bankroll management, one based on establishing “win limits” ahead of time. Essentially, his advice boils down to leaving the casino once you’ve hit your win limit. That way, you’ll guarantee a few winning sessions along the way to help offset the losing days.

    For Patrick, his personal win limit was 20 percent of whatever he walked into the casino with. If that was $1,000, he’d play various games attempting to squeeze out small winners until he held $1,200. At that point, with his win limit satisfied, Patrick would simply walk away from the table and chalk up a victory.

    In his words, Patrick considered himself as a winning player because he counted more of these small winning sessions than down days at the end of the year.

    Obviously, this approach to casino gambling is nothing more than confirmation bias in action. By basing his success rate on wins, and not the sum of his wins and losses, Patrick simply gamed the system.

    Anybody can place a few bets on blackjack and leave the game up when luck strikes. And using this style of play, anybody can declare that they won more often than they lost while playing blackjack.

    But if he accounted for all of the blackjack bets he placed, viewing the year as just one continuous session, Patrick surely found himself in the red. Think about it… if you booked 20 winning sessions, at $100 profit per, and only five losing sessions (at $1,000 per), what’s the final tally?

    Sure, you experienced 15 more winning sessions when compared to losing sessions. But those 20 winners generated $2,000 profit, while the five losers accounted for a $5,000 downswing. Overall, even a “winning” player like Patrick is a net loser when adopting the win limit style.

    And even if conservative play is your thing, Patrick has a knack for advising players to take some of the worst bets in the house. As the quote below shows, he’s a big fan of using the longshot “Any Craps” bet when throwing dice, despite its massive house edge of 11.1 percent. He might have his reasons, but any gambling author who leads readers to believe 11.1 percent longshots are a sensible play isn’t worth your time.

    Key Quote:
    “The house pays 7:1 on the Any Craps bet, holding an 11.1 percent edge over the player. That’s pretty heavy. Craps players make this bet for different reasons.

    If I put $15 on the Pass Line, I will make an Any Craps bet for $2, not because I think it will show, but because I want to reduce my chances of losing that Pass Line wager.

    This theory is disagreed with in many other books on craps. But you lose four or five Pass Line wagers of $15, $20, or $25, and you’ll welcome the chance to hedge your bet.”

    Lowlights:

    • So You Wanna Be a Gambler: Slots (1983)
    • John Patrick’s Advanced Craps (1994)
    • Craps for the Clueless (2001)
    • John Patrick’s Internet Gambling (2002)
    • John Patrick’s Blackjack for the 21st Century (2004)
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Rush

    Rush MIA

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2010
    Messages:
    2,987
    Trips to Las Vegas:
    76
    Put Scoblete in the hucksters group, too.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.