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Is this D promo for VP worth it?

Discussion in 'Comps' started by VegasSchemer, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    Hey guys,

    I usually play blackjack and occasionally do battle with the one armed bandit but a promo I noticed at the D sounds to me like I should give VP a shot next time I'm in town.

    First, the promo is $5 in freeplay for every 50 points earned in a 24 hour period. 50 points is $500 through a machine on VP. It comes from the LVA and ACG coupon books.

    This site below says they have a Bonus Poker game with a .83% house edge.

    http://www.vpfree2.com/casino/d-las-vegas-casino

    By my calculations, I should expect to lose $4.15 per $5 in freeplay unlocked. Sounds like a great deal to earn some comps on if I want to develop some play with The D. Then you also get $5 in cash after 500 points.

    $20k in coin-in for a day should get me some offers going forward, and I shouldn't be in too bad of shape on the backend. If I got through that with only $100 in losses, I'd feel pretty good about the whole thing. (Seems to me I "should" lose $166, then I'd get $200 in freeplay and $20 cash).

    This website has very different numbers than VPfree2, though: https://wizardofvegas.com/guides/video-poker-survey/

    It sounds like he might just be looking at an average machine, not the best ones.

    Again, not a VP player, so what might I be forgetting?

    Also, what does "1 play" mean? I'm assuming I'll have to max bet at $1.25 to get the best payouts.

    Also also, should I try to play the progressive machine? I'm assuming that's only an added bonus but maybe there's a drawback there too that I'm unaware of.

    Thanks, in advance, for your help!
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  2. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    The numbers the Wizard gave was just an average of a run of the mill game king, so you can ignore that.

    If you're playing quarters ($1.25 a hand), play upstairs at the Vue Bar exclusively. The progressives on those machines often make the game go above 100% especially the straight flush and 5-Ks meter. And last I heard they have "Space Dust" on tap, one of my go to IPAs.
     
  3. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    Thanks for the tip! And sorry in advance for being ignorant, but what is the straight flush and 5-Ks "meter"?
     
  4. jughead1963

    jughead1963 Tourist

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    Doing some math you would need to have 16K hands for 20K in cash in. The average player plays about 500 hands per hour that would be 32 hours and even if you doubled that it would be 16 hours. You would be able to easy get 20K cash in if you played dollars ($5 per hand) in about 8 hours. The other possibility is multi-hand play. Enjoy the ride.
     
  5. bstew

    bstew Tourist

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    I've never tried to do both coupons in one day. I am not sure they will allow that. If you are looking to play the full 20k in one day, obviously the quarter machines are not what you are looking for, but you can play dollars 8/5 Bonus at the Vue Bar upstairs as well. 20k in one day will yield very good offers from the D.
     
  6. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    Thanks for bringing me down to earth. I played 10k an hour on a video BJ game last weekend in AC, so I thought I could do 20k with 8 hours of work. Whoops. May need to jump to $5.

    Also, what the edge on that 8/5 game? Isn't it going to be more like 2 or 3 percent? Is there a 9/6 game at $5? I figured it'd be easier to find that paytable if I played more.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  7. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    I just meant that I'll use one and that's where they can be found. I think you're right that you can't double dip. That'd be a killer promo that they'd lose to all of us on.

    Sounds like 5k per day over two days (10k total) may be more realistic for what I want to attempt here (and it'd be work out using both ACG and LVA). Do you think that'll get me decent comps still?

    Does anyone know if I can have a buddy play on the same time on my card?
     
  8. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    On those bar tops, the royal, straight flush, and 5-Ks quads are all progressive.

    The straight flush and the 5-K quad progressive are more important than the royal. The straight flush is often over triple digits. It starts at $62.50.
     
  9. jughead1963

    jughead1963 Tourist

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    The real killers are variance and bankroll. my best guess is that you would over $1000 to stay in the game at $5 per hand and that doesn't guarantee anything for the Bonus Poker game which has a low variance. Double double would require an even higher bankroll. Jacks or better would be a little lower and you could find a pay table of 9/6 which has 99.54% versus Bonus Poker 8/5 at 99.17%. Good Luck.
     
  10. Vegas Lover

    Vegas Lover Low-Roller

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    The straight flush can get very high. I hit it about 3 weeks ago at the Vue Bar for $180. I was a happy camper with that :)
     
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  11. bstew

    bstew Tourist

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    5k a day should get you marketing offers of 3 or 4 free nights with a little free play/food (about 25-50 each)
     
  12. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    If you are not a VP player, what you are forgetting is there is no way you'll play the game to its theoretical max EV.

    That is problem 1. Problem 2 is variance. You could very regularly lose several hundred trying this play. So not something that makes sense unless you wanted to play that much VP anyway.
     
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  13. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    At the D, no. 8/5 Bonus is the best they have.

    At the Vue Bar, the house edge will vary based on the current progressive levels.
     
  14. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    Good points. I am thinking like a blackjack player. Do you have any sense of what the variance may look like for a reasonable projection that game?

    Is it like 85% and then a royal flush makes up the difference after several trips or even worse than that?

    I could see this becoming an annual play for me. One trip at The D where I play a ton of VP. I am looking for the best, consistent EV plays for weekend rooms and this seems like a good option. Happy to learn a new game along the way. I know that's basically chasing comps but I am already a gambler, so I see this more as shifting play. If I'm chasing, that problem started before this haha

    If playing 5k at $1.25/hand should leave me expecting to be out $500 before comps each trip, this sounds like a fun long-term gamble, but I am seeking as much info as possible.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  15. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Assuming I did the math right, you'd be looking at +/- 646 dollars from your expected value within one standard deviation. Which would mean 68% of the time you'd have a result between a loss of 812 and a win of 480, and 95% of the time you'd be between -1458 and +1126.

    That is again assuming perfect decisions.

    I would guess a casual player will be a few % points off of the 99.17 payback. And of course they could make higher or lower variance mistakes.

     
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  16. VegasSchemer

    VegasSchemer High-Roller

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    Greatly appreciate your help. It is close to a move I want to make but not a slam dunk. Not sure if I'll pull the trigger now, which is exactly why I came to this forum.
     
  17. vegasdev

    vegasdev VIP Whale

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    by all means, let us know how it turns out. and good luck.
     
  18. tringlomane

    tringlomane STP Addicted Beer Snob

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    The $1000 Royal is worth about 2% of the overall return @VegasSchemer.

    The use of the normal ("bell curve") distribution is convenient, but not very accurate for smaller samples of play because the variance and standard deviation are totally inflated by the royal flush. It's better to run a simulation. The good news is the odds of losing $1000 in $5000 coin-in is nearly impossible at 8/5 Bonus.

    I also think you goofed the SD calculation @Nevyn . Should be Total SD = bet_size*(hands*variance_in_bets)^1/2. Variance for one hand of 8/5 Bonus is 20.904 bets, so the total SD for 4000 quarter hands would be: $1.25*(4000*20.904)^1/2 = $361.46. 2 SD would be $722.92.

    Assuming no freeplay awarded, here is the simulated Risk of Ruin for 4000 quarter hands of 8/5 Bonus. (10k sims for 4000 hands or bust each). As @Nevyn said, this also assumes perfect play. So actual numbers will be slightly higher assuming a good, but not a perfect player.

    $100...78.35%
    $200...50.82%
    $300...25.51%
    $400...8.98%
    $500...2.14%
    $600...0.38%
    $700...0.01%
     
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  19. nfajgmbr03

    nfajgmbr03 Low-Roller

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    I'll be there in December doing the same thing. I'll let you know how it turns out for me as well. I wonder if you can use the ACG one day and the LVA the next.
     
  20. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Actually I used that formula, but I was looking at 16k hands since OP's original plan was 20k coin in. And I still may have done in wrong in a hurry converting from units to dollars.
     
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