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In honor of TRN ... how would you play it?

Discussion in 'The Poker Room' started by Nevyn, Mar 26, 2017.

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  1. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    1-3 cash game, pretty new so no table image on anyone.

    Hero is down to approx 290 off a 300 buy in.

    Villain has just come to the table and waiting for his BB 4 hands instead of posting. He is in the BB. Hero is in the cutoff. V2 straddles I think. Two others call. Hero calls with 87 offsuit Pot ~ 31. Straddler checks

    Flop is 8-8-J. V1 leads out first to attack for 50. Yes, 50.
    Folded around to hero, who raises to 120

    V1 thinks, not terribly long, then shoves (he started with a full buy-in, so Hero would be all in).

    What would you do?
     
  2. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    Your flop raise is pretty terrible. It seems designed to only get called by better and to fold out nearly everything you beat besides maybe JT and 82-86.

    When someone bets 1.5 times flop they don't have JT. You are basically praying he has a worse 8 than you.

    If you play this hand on this board for stacks you are going to be behind the vast majority of the time. I know it is hard to fold but this is a good example of the difference between absolute strength and relative strength of your hand. You are crushing nearly every preflop hand. But you are in bad shape against the hands willing to lead for 50 and shove over your hand.

    It would be really helpful to know where the straddle came from.

    Realistically I also have to add that if you can't find a fold here at some point postflop you can't call the straddle pre.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2017
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  3. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    Sorry if that came across as too negative. These spots are tough because your hand looks so good

    The one thing helping you is the preflop action but his range is tilting towards better 8s when he bets this hard. People like to call down with their weaker trips.
     
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  4. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Straddle can only come UTG in this poker room. I will reserve comment until other people can give their impression.

    I should have added flop is 8s8dJs
     
  5. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    How many players do you know who would bet a flush draw like that on that board?
     
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  6. kansaisupra

    kansaisupra Low-Roller

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    Do you have the 7s?

    Whats the max buy in $300? So I would assume V1 has $300 to start?

    Whats the straddle 6?

    AP

    Pot $31, V1 bets 50, you raise $120, he shoves

    Pot 201, he shoves 244 more.
    Pot 445.
    So you need to call 169 more to win 445?

    Your getting almost 3/1. I'd call.

    I would expect to be behind, against a better 8. At BEST a flush draw or straight draw but if you have the 7s at least you block some of his outs. I am not sure what worse 8 you beat. Would he call a straddle with 82? 83? 84? 85 maybe, 86 okay.

    Personally, anyone who waits for their big blind and not post, I would assume they are on the tighter side, so that makes me discount his jamming his whole stack on a draw.

    In my opinion you put yourself in this position by calling a straddle and not raising with 87 off. What did you hope to flop with 87? A straight? A full house? You probably got the most favorable flop with 87 and your still not sure if your ahead. So next time fold pre or raise. Preferably fold pre with 87. Plus you said you were new to the table so what information do you have on anyone? Maybe later into the session when you have some reads or information playing 87 is okay, but if you just sat down, just fold pre and gather information.
     
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  7. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Ok, first my apologies. Just got home from a two hour drive after a marathon session this was at the start of. Don't generally take notes, and apart from the usual lost in translation elements here, I think I have gotten some significant details wrong, making the hand seem even stranger than it was. To be honest, the pre-flop action became a blur given the hand, and I am now having trouble piecing it together.

    I will discuss tomorrow with a friend who was at the table and try to clarify exactly how pre-flop went. The relevant details that seem wrong at the moment are the straddle, and the positioning of the pre-flop players (I think there was one player behind me still to act, but I couldn't say for sure), but I don't want to make this even more of a gong show until I can piece it together.

    Again, full revision to come tomorrow, along with further info on my read at the time, and thoughts on your comments.

    In the meantime, I won't keep you in suspense as to the result since I've already kind of messed up the story. I'll use a light font so as not to spoil for future readers.

    When we left our hero, he had just faced a 3-bet all in.

    Hero goes in the tank and replays the hand (which he apparently can't even do anymore). And he cannot find it in him to believe that V1 would have let out a multiway pot with an overbet with trips, especially those with a high kicker.

    Hero calls.

    Villain confidently (as if ahead) turns over Qs Jx and is surprised to find that he is behind to trips. He is the middle of saying his good hands and looking surprised, as the turn comes As and the river comes Ks. V1 scoops the pot. V1 then folds the next hand from the small blind, looks at two other hands without folding them, then gets up and walks.



    He was one of the first players I've met who would bet ANY hand like that on that board.

    If you read the way it played out, why I should have mentioned it becomes clear. But also this is part of the reason I think I got the positioning wrong. I think it was not only V1 I was worried about on the raise, but the outcome of the hand, the length of the session, and my general state have left the details blurry. Again, I will talk to my buddy, try to correct anything wrong, and then explain the full thought process.


    I am willing to accept criticism on both the loose pre-flop play (once I get it right), and the raise. And while I did read him right, there could be some confirmation bias going on as to how I read the situation, and my fuzzy details also might be making my read look stranger than it was.


    Again sorry. Should have taken notes if I wanted to discuss, and separated myself from the tilt before trying to post it up.
     
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  8. johnvic

    johnvic VIP Whale

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    The problem with this hand is pre-flop. You have an off-suit medium connector with 3 people to act behind you. Any one of them can raise. I really think that the pre-flop call is bad. Fold.
     
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  9. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Ok, my friend has confirmed the details of what I screwed up in the explanation.

    There was no pre-flop straddle. Last night in trying to recall the pre flop details I remembered the # of players and that V1 was BB, but did not remember how it got raised. And there were straddlers at the table, but that time my buddy was UTG and he never straddles.

    So the real action was V1 BB, V2 SB, hero button (yep, even got my spot wrong), couple limps ahead. Hero limps, V1 min raise, everyone call. Post flop SB check, and from there the action is right.


    I think this helps explain the 7-8 off a little, although it is still a quite loose and somewhat weak play. To address that part of it, obviously I am not playing a hand like that expecting trips or a pair. Generally, given the room (this is Caesar's Windsor btw), the hope is mainly straight draw, playing it in position where I can manage the pot size.

    Anyway, I won't pretend I'd never play a straddle with limps the same way, and I acknowledge I shouldn't. That is a live game leak I am working on.



    But getting the details right does help explain my thought process as to why I concluded (rightfully) that he did not have higher set or a boat.

    That and a few more details about the guy and the room, which I partly withheld because it is tough to give too many peripheral details without tipping the outcome. This room has its own cage, the hand was in the morning on a new opened table (no breaking tables), V1 had not been playing the night before, and he walked up with a mostly green stack, which generally the cage doesn't do. He didn't look like a complete fish out of water, but did not read like any sort of real player.

    While the Rumor did not think the >1.5 lead out that odd for a leading hand, it was wildly conspicuous in this room at least. The trend at Caesar's Windsor is if people size wrong (and are not shoving a short stack), they are generally raising too light. An overbet sticks out. And in this case he made it by throwing in two greens, leading to the question of if he even knew he could verbalize less, or really meant it. And all do respect to Rumor, who could be right about the 3 bet, but no way he ever leads out there with an overbet with either boat (JJ, J8), with the preflop action also making jacks unlikely.

    The read that he did not have a better 8 is a bit sketchier. With him so early in a multi-way flop, and in this room, I still find an overbet from 2nd position pretty wildly unlikely. Honestly, at CW most players in EP would be trapping with that. And while there are draws, it is a paired board. So the same logic Rumor put out about my raise applies to his 50. It was an action killing bet, in a spot where he could easily lead 20-25 even if he did not trap, and bring along people with a jack. I just did not buy it.


    Now as to my choice to raise the flop. I am still thinking that over, as the Rumor had a valid point, but am not sure on it. It does come clearer now that I have the spots right.

    My thought process of the time was that V1 was a maniac, and quite possibly just trying to buy by bullying. And V2 was set to act behind me. And with the paired board and the called overbet, maybe he is always folding behind. But there were some draws on that board. If I flat it, we are possibly 2-3 players to the turn, any scare card could come and make the decision on a call actually much tougher. In addition, with V1 overbetting so wildly, it did not feel like one I could pot control with a call. He could have been anywhere from 100 to a shove on a turn continuation and the decision is still the same as the one I ended up in. Or if it was a bluff, he could just shut down and not pay another street. So the aim of the raise was to isolate on the wild player, or take down the ~80 ish pot right away, specifically because the trips were vulnerable. I certainly didn't consider them unbeatable on that board. That could still be a bad play on my part, but I think it is more borderline than Rumor thought it was. Set better kicker or boat is still going to make a turn decision for it all, and in this room and with that bet I guess one could "find a fold" after a flat call. But if you are going to either fold the overbet, or fold the turn if V1 continues, you are going to give a lot of free money to bluffs and jacks.

    Anyway, sorry I screwed up the breakdown details. It was a fun story hand, but I should have been clear on the action before posting. And the payoff to the story is the ultra-weird holding he ended up with, and the brutal runner runner flush that caught (and the guy walking without playing another hand). Between that and the following hour of play (where I consciously avoided tilt, played only strong openers in position, and got looked up or caught up to on the flop every time), it was a fairly tilting session. The irony being if I had misread and he did have a higher set, the stack off would have been far less haunting.
     
  10. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    I never said a player leading for 1.5x the pot isn't weird.

    What should scare you is that I would bet this huge if I had a hand like K8 or A8 with the goal to fold out draws and to punish weaker 8s. People can't fold hands like 98 here, so you can overbet with impunity. I would bet more than the pot.

    People always do weird stuff, and you should always assume some spazz factor, but players generally have the goods when they 3 bet shove 100 bb into a pot.
     
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  11. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Fair enough. Maybe in higher games and better rooms this would be more common. But 1-3 NL there, I still can't see any of the players I know leading out trips (with any kicker) that aggressively. There is 1 more 8 out there, or else the bet gets no action. And a well kicked 8 wants action. I would expect most players in that game to trap with them. Even the better ones who would lead would very likely price for 1 street of calls, and if they were concerned about draws, make their overbet move on the river.

    Really I've never seen such overbets on the flop except from fish with no idea what to bet.

    Also, would you really go as high as 1.5x for that? Even 3/4 pot to pot would often price out the draws, especially with the paired board complicating their implied odds.

    Still, great food for thought.
     
  12. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    People suck at folding worse trips. Yes, I want action, but what I really want is to get my stack in. It's really hard to get $300 in on that board if I only bet $20-$25 on the flop. If I bet something like $45/$85/$150 I get your whole stack.

    My bet sizing plan isn't a flop plan - it's a whole hand plan. I'm trying to get a stack from the case eight.

    The amount of draws on that board is yet another reason to bet huge. If you have a big eight, betting anything under the pot in a five way hand that was min raised is a sin here at these stack depths.

    Yes, the average player is terrible at figuring this out. This is part of how we beat them - we can profitably overbet in spots where they can't fold most of their calling range.
     
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  13. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    You should think about why this is a good idea and look for spots to overbet in your games.

    Let me give you another example. Say the board runs out 4578A (no flush) and you have 96. You should be murdering this turn and river with HUGE bets
     
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  14. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    Also, you should not be afraid of getting no action on this board with A8 or K8. People get scared on a board like Js8c8s. Their calling ranges are already going to be pretty tight. What you should be focused on is maximizing your profit overall. You can maximize that by getting $290 out of someone with a hand like 87
     
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  15. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    So the profitable line is bust the case 8, go broke to a random boat (it was a limpy flop at a loose level), split any re-pair with the case 8, and otherwise win 30 bucks?

    Interested to see what others think. The way I see those hands play I'd much rather be getting 1/2-2/3 stacks from a worse set, and getting looked up occasionally by jacks on the flop, which may not happen at your level, but is pretty common in this room. You can still set a bad price for draws, and while early position complicated things, you can pot control if a scare card comes on the turn, and still have redraws even if one hits.
     
  16. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I haven't read any results yet, but I think the new villain just sat down to a marginal hand with a J in it (KJ QJ JT) or a small pair (22-77 or 99/TT). The $50 lead out on $31 pot, while big in %, is not very big in $ ($19 over)... if I want to project my A8 in that hand I would bet more like 2-3x pot overbet.... In a 1/2 game I would say you need to call, if you lose to JJ or 8+bigger kicker then ok... it's 1/2 and you can reload. But I'd say you're good on this flop, get it in there. (If this was a tournament, I would advise differently.)
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2017
  17. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    Now I've caught up on the rest of the story... I still think you make the call and if he gets lucky on that backdoor flush then oh well, you had it in good, as I suspected would happen.
     
  18. Nevyn

    Nevyn VIP Whale

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    Yeah, I wasn't feeling bad about the call given the result ... but thought it was an interesting spot just because his play was so weird.
     
  19. The Rumor

    The Rumor VIP Whale

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    There are 3 hand combos of JJ, 3 combos of J8, and 40 combos of worse 8s if you have A8. Plus you can discount JJ a small amount since they didn't raise pre.

    You really have to think about the % of the time they have these hands, not freak out because they could have JJ or J8. You need to focus your play in this situation on the worse 8s which is 80%+ of their calling range.

    Yes, sometimes they will suck out on you and you will chop or lose to a boat they make on the turn or the river, but you are missing loads of value in the other cases.

    You're also going to spend a lot of money paying off JJ and J8 anyway. It's not like you are protecting yourself hugely by betting small.

    This is a big reason to fold 87 pre, btw - think about how you compare to that range. You are flying blind.
     
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  20. NeonTurtle14

    NeonTurtle14 Hot Dogs and Buns

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    I would love my opponent to overbet the pot everytime I flop trips on a fairly safe board!!! 5x the pot, go for it buddy!
     
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