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Video Poker How far do you press it when winning?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by TIMSPEED2, Mar 19, 2014.

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  1. DonnyC

    DonnyC VIP Whale

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    I don't understand that.

    Take BJ.

    1) Bet $5.. win - have $10
    2) Bet $5..win (press on 3rd bet) - have $15
    3) bet $10..win - have $25, loose have $10 here I would have been better falt betting
    4) If won 3rd bet: bet $15..win - have $40, loose have $10

    Following this progression, the 7th win (and thereafter) I am bettor off not have flat betting.
     
  2. Nittany1

    Nittany1 VIP Whale

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    I press more conservatively but start with higher initial place bets.

    I usually place 6/8 for $120 ea. Depending on the point, I place the 5 or 9 for $75 or $100.
    Usually I "same bet" 3times to cover all my place bets then start pressing.
    $150
    $180
    $210
    $240
    $300
    $360
    $450
    $600
    $900
    $1200

    Never got above this point on any number.
    Sometimes I'll look at all the action and try to knock a couple numbers off with come bets if I have $3-5 K on the layout.


    I sam
     
  3. agentq

    agentq Low-Roller

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    In blackjack, I am a bit slow to press, but I usually play fairly count-aware so I'm not pressing into a -ve count shoe. And I tend to scale up/down first via # of hands played simultaneously -- so this is one sample progression (that doesn't scale up on each winning hand, but over time)
    $200 x 1 spot played
    150 x 2
    200 x 3
    400 x 3

    but this has scaled up quite high depending on how much i'm winning. highest level I've pressed to for multiple rounds has been 8k x 3, starting at 200 x 2. When some of those started splitting/doubling, things got real interesting :wink2: but typically i max out at 1.5k max spread around the table with starting point of 200
     
  4. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    I agree that the doubles every 4 levels or so are aggressive but it's not without thought behind it. I made a spreadsheet to fine tune this progression into something I was comfortable with. For example, at the double from $150 to $300, my cumulative win is already $302 not including the $300 on the table so even if I roll out at that point it's still a big win.

    The goal of the progression was to get to table max within a number of rolls characteristic of a legendary roll. Ultimately you've got to make some big leaps every so often to have a chance of getting there. If the plan took 40 hits, I'd have zero shot as even the longest craps roll in history didn't hit play 6 or 8 that many times. My progression is pie in the sky but so is playing the megabucks and hoping to hit the progressive.

    That said I've made that $150 to $300 leap many times and then hit again so the risk has been worth the fist pumping action for me. This is absolutely one of those things that boils down to personal preference so what's right for me may not be right for everyone. :)

    To answer your question, I reset to the base unit for next shooter no matter how high I get on the prior roll. I'm with you on that 100%.
     
  5. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    Go back to my progression on page 1, you pocket money at every single step except the initial bet obviously. You can create an unlimited number of variants on it, but that's what I've come up with which suits me.

    The best way to do this is to create a spread sheet with four columns
    BET / WIN / PRESS / CUMULATIVE WIN

    Bet = Previous Bet + Previous Press (1st entry is manual)
    Win = Bet * (7/6)
    Press = Manual Entry, this is what you are playing around with
    Cumulative Win** = Press - Win - Bet

    **Cumulative Win presumes any money on the table is "committed". We can fight over the legitimacy of looking at it that way but ultimately my goal with the spread sheet was to know what my guaranteed take was at any given level. The calculation presumes it's not won until it's in your chip rack. I don't want to argue the point because I know bets on the table are still technically "your" money. It's at risk, so I don't count it.

    For my progression, the first 5 levels look like this:
    BET / WIN / PRESS / CUMULATIVE WIN
    6 / 7 / 0 / 1
    6 / 7 / 6 / 2
    12 / 14 / 6 / 10
    18 / 21 / 6 / 25
    24 / 28 / 6 / 47

    Anywho, create your own spreadsheet and then run it out to 20 levels and then mess with the amount pressed at each level till you come up with something you are happy with. This answer will be different for each person and once again I reiterate that the purpose of this exercise is to design a system that gives you the action you want. Nothing you are doing here will help you create a "winning" system as no such thing exists.
     
  6. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    Mathematically you should stay home and never bet period. :D

    I know I'm preaching to the choir, but press betting isn't about doing something mathematically optimal, but rather about finding a betting strategy that gives you a chance at some big action without flat betting large amounts constantly.

    I like betting $150-$300 on the roll of the dice but I can't afford to do that every roll so I rely on a press bet progression to get me there occasionally.
     
  7. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    Here's a screen shot of that press bet schedule I was talking about...

    [​IMG]

    Easier said then done but every craps player has a dream right?
     
  8. MikeOPensacola

    MikeOPensacola El Jefe

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    Thanks for the chart Woodsie, that was exactly what I was looking for.

    :peace: :beer:
     
    Dec 23rd - Dec 26th
    Last Solo Trip of my bachelorhood. Wedding is set for June 2022.
  9. El Bluffoon

    El Bluffoon Tourist

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    Mainly a slot player.I was up 3k after a hand pay on my last trip.I stuck to my strategy that I used before the hand pay which is mixing up bet amounts depending on the machine.I focus on the machines that are multi-denom.Some of the Stations casinos that I play at still have the older penny ones that I enjoy.I got lucky in that 48hrs after the hand pay I hadn't lost any of the 3k.
     
  10. 4dazeoff

    4dazeoff Low-Roller

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    yes woodsie, thanks for the chart! i'll definitely save this. good stuff to look at! I bet similar to you but place and press all the numbers, starting with table minimum. it really gets exciting when your stacks start to grow but I'm a firm believer in racking some of the win! it's amazing how long you session can increase rather than pressing everything for 3-4 wins before collecting. Also, I reset as well at table minimum for the next shooter always! good luck!~:beer:
     
  11. DMSCR

    DMSCR High-Roller

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    I don't press. Once I hit $350 to $360 at a $100 bac table I color out. I may keep winning but I would never know. Don't want to stretch my luck and have it bite me in the butt.
     
  12. dickie98

    dickie98 Tourist

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    Wow, this is terrific. I employ a similar press strategy at craps but never bothered to calculate the cumulative win at each number and this table does it quite clearly. Usually play on strip so $10 minimum at most places.

    I go a bit more aggressive with the 4/10 and "buy" it on the first hit (increasing volatility) since i'd rather pay the 5% commission going forward on each hit vs. the lower odds on the first few hits (I also tend to roll 4/10's on my better come outs). However, I am not nearly so aggressive once I get to the $30 level with the 5/6/8/9, but it looks like I should be.
     
  13. KBT2012

    KBT2012 High-Roller

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    I'm a craps/poker player primarily so when I'm on slots I'm a total degen, I usually press until I lose it all.....local casinos I've turned $20 into $500 and took it to a $100 slot machine to lose it all. "Go big or go home" However, at the craps table I'm a little more conservative. I usually start out at a $10 table and usually never go above $25 pass line/full odds, 2 come bets full odds, and reds across prop bets.
     
  14. ajonate

    ajonate Low-Roller

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    That's the way to walk away a winner. If you double up bets during a winning streak you'll end up giving back a lot of your winnings. All you're doing is artificially increasing the variance of the game, as if the variance isn't already bad enough.

    The idea if chasing winning streaks is just gamblers fallacy in disguise. What increasing wagers during winning streaks really does is modify your play strategy based on past results. That's always a mistake. Logically, increasing bets during a winning streak should produce no better results than increasing bets at any other time of play.

    The fallacy arises because winning & losing streaks really do occur. The problem with chasing a winning streak is that there is no reason to believe that the winning streak will continue past that point.
     
  15. PopMegaphone

    PopMegaphone VIP Whale

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    Different type of game, but speaking as a poker player, pressing is the worst thing you can do. It's called "winners tilt".
     
  16. PopMegaphone

    PopMegaphone VIP Whale

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    Typically pressing puts more money in play in the long run (avg bet), which increases the theoretical loss. That said, pressing is fun for a lot of players because the increased variance is exciting.


    All this is true.
     
  17. woodsie

    woodsie VIP Whale

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    I agree with everything you said except that it is always a mistake. If your intent is to increase variance, then it's not a mistake. I press bet BECAUSE it increases my chances of a big win. I understand that this costs me something statistically but that's the price I'm willing to pay for the kind of action I want.

    If we are just talking dollars and cents, then the most logical thing is to stay home and not gamble.

    If we are talking about getting the kind of action you enjoy at a price you can afford, then betting strategy including both bet size and bet progression becomes a valid topic with no "right" answer.

    My progression for Craps as shown on my chart above fits my style. I'm perfectly aware that it'll cost me more than flat betting but it also gives me the occasional 4 digit win which is the "thrill' that I'm paying for.
     
  18. ajonate

    ajonate Low-Roller

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    Sure. It's variance that delights us about gambling. The idea that we can wager a small amount to win a comparatively enormous jackpot is why people come to Las Vegas.

    It's just that I'm a conservative gambler.
     
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2014
  19. Bossplayer21

    Bossplayer21 Low-Roller

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    I talk a better game than I actually do. I like to think I'd press and start making real money throwing chips all over the table like a scene out of a movie. But when push comes to shove and its time for me to up my bets I chicken out. I just dont have the balls to bet more than 3-5x my base bet.
    I mostly play BJ at $10/$15 levels so $40-$50 is the most im comfortable with betting. No matter how many hands I've won in a row, I can't seem to bet more.

    When I play craps I can't get myself to press more than $24 on a place bet. I then start expecting the 7 out to come. I've missed out on making good money in the past even my own rolls becasue I wasnt betting agressive enough.:thumbsdown:
     
  20. Bossplayer21

    Bossplayer21 Low-Roller

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    One of my biggest rolls ever I hit every point possible, a bunch of hardways and on come out rolls 7s and yos sometimes 2-3 in a row. I rolled for about 30 min. After I 7'd out, eveyone at the table gave me an ovation and I look down and I made like $140. No joke, it was pathetic. I guess I was really focused on rolling and didnt want to "change" anything by throwing my money out on bets.

    People at the other end of table were betting $100 on all the hardways, screaming loudly chips covered the table and my chicken shit ass has a $5 line bet, $10 in odds and a $6 6 and 8.

    I guess I have room to improve
     
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