So I placed a large wager on the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl in September. If they end up winning I will win just short of 20k. My question to the board is if they do make it do I hedge my bet with a large bet on the Bills opponent. Decrease my potential winnings but guarantee substantial winnings. I guess in a perfect world the Bills would be favored and I could potentially find a sweet spot which would cover both bets.
With seven other teams remaining? That would seem kind of pointless. FWIW, I am not a big fan of hedging unless you're talking money substantial enough to make a significant difference in your life or unless there has been a substantial change that makes your original wager much more likely to lose
I agree on the it’s too early part. Idk what the OP risk tolerance is.... SB??? Why not. 20 if they win. 10 if they lose....
I had $80 on the 49ers to win the Super Bowl last year at 30-1. I coulda been a thousandaire! I decided not to hedge because I looked at it as 80 bucks not 2400 bucks. I may have looked at 20 grand differently.
I’d wait until the final two and make that decision then. I mean, $10000 guaranteed isn’t a bad thing if that’s what you’d like to do. But $20K? It’s all up to you!
The big question for me would be is this my team or not? If I've been waiting for my team to finally have their year, no way in hell. I'm riding or dying on that bet. Sometimes you just have to believe...
I'd hedge this game upcoming since they're favored. You can get points and possibly win the game bet while still being alive for the SB bet.
Thanks for the responses. This is not my team. I was at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi, I had a great day at three card poker and a lot to drink and placed some of my winnings on the Bills. At the time they were about +1900 and seemed like tremendous value. I’m not doing anything until and if they get to the Super Bowl. The money isn’t life changing it would be super nice. As childish as this might sound. I think the fun of watching a super bowl with no guarantee sounds like a blast
Although I usually avoid hedges, there are times when I take into account if I am a real fan of the team that I need to win. In this case, if you are a Bills fan and are going to be ecstatic if they win regardless of the financial windfall, then hedging comes into the picture to prevent being 'doubly ticked off' if they lose.
This is a damn difficult question. I can't tell you how many times I've gotten to the third, fourth, fifth or even sixth race of a multi-race bet with a live ticket. What do you do in that last race? It's maddening. I've even had people offer me money for the ticket which would be way above my original bet but below what I could win. At this point, you can't hedge. You had a solid position that could win big money. You'll have to white-knuckle the next two games at least. But, when you come to the Super Bowl, you may want to hedge a bit and make sure you get your money back or even a slight profit. Throwing money to the opposite side in these AFC games would be unwise. You actually might look to PropSwap if you get to the Super Bowl—it could guarantee a sure profit.
My thoughts: If they make the SB, place a hedge bet to win back your original stake if the Bills lose You probably jinxed it by bringing it up 2 rounds early
Agree. Hedging is expensive. Unless you can no longer bear the risk or a life changing win (even with the cost of the hedge included) is in play, ride it out. Only you can define "life changing" though.
Personally I like to hedge. When I play the ATS on Craps and the 5. 6, 8 or 9 is the last number, I generally lay it for a couple hundred dollars. I won’t touch the other numbers.
The way I look at it is if you are going to hedge then you shouldnt have made the original bet. By hedging you are reducing the original odds that you made with and increase the house advantage.
my play would be to bet the ravens this week plus 135 money line betting 820 ish would give a 100 dollar profit if the ravens win (beats losing 1000 at it would stand without hedging) if the bills win you are now in it 1820 but still have the 19k payday on the line (and only 4 teams left)
