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Handicapping Services

Discussion in 'The Sports Book' started by GROWLR, Oct 23, 2018.

  1. GROWLR

    GROWLR Low-Roller

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    Has anyone here used one of the many handicapping services, such as "The Machine" "Wunderdog" "VIPPicks" or others?

    Do you buy the season package? Weekly? Daily?

    Any reviews you would like to share?

    Feel free to PM me if you wish.

    Thanks.
     
    Annual HGS and WSG Trip
  2. Rush

    Rush MIA

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    Save your money.

    These are guys who prey on the weak. I called a free line in the early 80s, and to this day, I still get calls every football season.
     
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  3. rooster42000

    rooster42000 Patriots #1

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    Those guys are scam artist, if they could pick winners , they would be betting themselves , avoid all of that .I totally agree with @Rush
     
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  4. jamesxnj

    jamesxnj VIP Whale

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    They are a scam They will give out picks on both sides of a game so half the people win and start believing and pay again for more 'special' picks and so on..Maybe offer a consolation pick for the losers and if that 50% wins then they still have a customer,Like the above poster said this is 80's era experience.
     
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  5. yumapapag

    yumapapag Tourist

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    Agree! If these guys were making money sportsbetting they wouldn’t be out here selling picks.
     
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  6. hard6

    hard6 Low-Roller

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    Did it years ago, like people say, don’t waste your money. I like using sports forums like Pregame.com, there are some decent handicappers on their forum and most all of them give their picks freely. Handicappers like Hiz Honor, fezzik post their picks there. If you’re wondering who those two are, they both won the Hilton contest held in Vegas each year. I think entry fee for that contest is like $10k so you know they’re serious about what they do! Good luck to whatever you decide!!:peace:
     
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  7. GROWLR

    GROWLR Low-Roller

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    Yeah, that was a primary thought about all this. It certainly smacks of those "how to make get rich doing X" books that are published. I see them pop up on my timeline and was just curious. Everyone seems to be in agreement here, so thanks.
     
    Annual HGS and WSG Trip
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  8. GROWLR

    GROWLR Low-Roller

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    Thanks for the information. I'm actually not a sports bettor as I find it to be something too much out of my control. But as a sports fan I'm always curious about it. And as a Vegas lover this is a topic that always comes up. Seems I always have friends asking me to make bets for them when I go to Vegas. Also seems like they only win about 50% of the time.
     
    Annual HGS and WSG Trip
  9. UKFanatic

    UKFanatic The Arbiter of Taste Caviar Kid

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    You can pay me for my picks :thumbsup: I can promise you they will be just as accurate as any of the other touts you could pay
     
    Time for some winter hikes
    Final Trip of the Year
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  10. archie1959

    archie1959 High-Roller

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    Always enjoyed those weekend infomercial shows where touts would tell you to call their 900 number for picks.
    And if they did not win the next weekend was free.
    Sports Illustrated in the early 90's did an article on the ripoff of 900 numbers for sports picks.
    Here is the first paragraph:
    Meet Jack Price. He's here to bury your bookmaker. HE ONCE promised to blow his brains out if the football predictions he gave out to customers of his gambling-advice phone line were wrong. They were, but he and his brains are still with us. Meet Ron Bash, a.k.a. the Coach. He is here to pound your bookie. His ads say he took his team to the Final Four. Did he mention that the Final Four he took them to was in Division III? Meet Kevin Duffy. He once bragged in a New York Daily News ad, "I'm coming off a great weekend & as usual, all my customers crushed [their] bookmakers." Too bad the ad was delivered to the News's offices before any of the games were played.
    Another excerpt:
    The Source, a sports-adviser service in Farmingdale, N.Y., owned by Stu Feiner, who also owns a few 900 call-in lines. Exhibit C is Feiner's brother-in-law, the aforementioned Kevin Duffy, perhaps the nation's most prominent adviser, who became famous for running ads that said, "I will go 7-0 for you today, absolutely free." Too bad "absolutely free" meant you first had to sign up for a month's service at $350. Then, if Duffy didn't go 7-0 in the first week, you got the next month free. Duffy, who operates out of Massapequa, Long Island, also claimed to be no worse than 75% right, ever. Yet when his picks were audited by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City, one of the rare legitimate monitors (among the dozens of such outfits that purport to keep tabs on the performance of tout services), he never fared better than 58.8% in any regular football season between 1985 and '88, and he sank as low as 39.7% for his college picks in '87. Eventually the Sports Monitor refused to monitor Duffy because of his "deceptive ad practices."
    The article is a very good read
    Here is the link to the article: https://www.si.com/vault/1991/11/18/125398/1-900-ripoffs-the-ads-for-call-in-services-that-offer-sure-thing-betting-advice-on-the-big-games-couldnt-be-more-tempting-our-own-hot-tip-dont-touch-that-phone
     
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  11. alanleroy

    alanleroy Click my avatar

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    I bet the "Lock of the Century" pick every week.
     
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  12. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    It's easier, and I think, far more effective, to study the lines that the major books post - and then figure out the "why" when they change those lines.
    The "early" lines tend to be a more accurate reflection of what the result will be (unless there's an injury or something like that).
    So, when you see them move, it tends to be because of betting sentiment - NOT because one team has magically gotten worse or better!
    It's when they move that you can take advantage.
    So - suppose you see that the early line for the Bears & Jets game is 'Bears -5.5'. Then, 4 days later you see that it's moved to 'Jets +7'.
    That would - typically - be an indicator to go with the Jets... they just got an extra point & half - no injuries, no coaching changes, no benching of some starter... just that too many folks were betting the Bears - so they moved the line to get more bets with the Jets.
    Now, that additional 1.5 points may not be enough, but it tells you that the change has to do with betting sentiment - not with their actual, initial prediction of the outcome.

    In the example cited, I would actually wait to see if it moves again, as the Bears should be able to cover the 7, and the change in the line might not be enough to balance out the betting. Look for, say, Jets +8.5.

    When you see that a line doesn't move? Then (for the NFL anyway) it generally indicates that an equal number of bettors are taking each side of that wager... in which case, go with your gut - or with your own analysis of the match-up. It will be just as "good" as any "service" you could hire.
     
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  13. Rush

    Rush MIA

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    That's kinda not right.

    When a bookmaker hangs the original line, that is when he has the most risk. If the line moves, it's because his original line was wrong. A book maker will quicker change the line based on a few bets by well-respected handicappers, than a bunch of bets by Joe Customers.

    To imply once the line changes it is smarter to back one way or the other, is wrong. If it were correct, bookies would go broke.
     
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  14. zanepro

    zanepro Tourist

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    The entry fee is $1500 for the Hilton contest, now it's called the Super Contest since Westgate took it over. The pregame crew are scammers just like all the others especially Fezzik, he must have been lucky when he won the contest back to back because I've heard he can't even get above 50% and pregame is notorious for changing records to make their cappers look like winners. .

    GROWLER,
    Newsletters are not that bad, Pointwise is probably the best one for College football but they all get streaky. I know a few people that just bet against Marc Lawrence's playbook picks every year I call him Marc the Mush because his picks are so bad, although he's doing alright this year. Goldsheet, Winning Points, Sports Reporter are usually pretty good but overall if you pick one to follow the best seasons will be about 54% winners and they all have losing seasons too. The only one I know of that ends up ahead every year is Pointwise in NCAAF if you can handle the variance.

    Or you can do what I started doing and just pick 2 or 3 teams in each sport and bet on or against them, it's much more profitable and easier than trying to pick a few teams to bet on from the card.
     
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  15. topcard

    topcard Older than the Stardust!

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    Matter of opinion... the objective of any book is to balance the bets on both teams.
    They set their initial line based on what they think will accomplish that before any bets are made. It is in their own best interest to make that line as close to what they think the outcome will be.
    Now, barring any injury or significant changes to their initial assumption, the only thing that motivates them to move the line would be lopsided betting for one team or another.
    If betting moves the line - and there's no doubt that it can & does - the original assumption doesn't suddenly become flawed...
    If, in my example, a huge number of bets suddenly flooded to the Jets, the books would simply move the line again to get more bets on the Bears.
    They don't go broke for exactly that reason - they constantly strive to have the amounts bet on both teams be as close to even as possible. Profit comes from the vig.
     
  16. hard6

    hard6 Low-Roller

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    You’re right, I might have been thinking of the WSOP entry fee. Anyways, I still like Pregame for all the good read on there. Sometimes there is a guy or two that have a hot streak going and I just tail them for the ride!
     
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  17. zanepro

    zanepro Tourist

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    That's what sharps do, just blind bet the line moves. Although 3,4 and 7 are key numbers so you will never see a game go from 5.5 to 8.5, unless there is a huge injury after the line was posted. When it hits 7 they will start moving the juice because passing 7 could expose them. If you see 5.5 that usually means the books are expecting heavy action on the favorite to close at 7 or they're expecting money on the dog to close at 4. The true number is usually the closing line so 5.5 means it will close at 4 or 7 based on the public bets. You have a good strategy though, betting the line moves should work since you're getting value on each play. I've tracked it back a few weeks and it looks profitable in college but the NFL is still a Mind F**k to me.

    If you want to take it a step further try to find out where the books are exposed and check the live betting lines because they try to balance the action there.
     
  18. Rush

    Rush MIA

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    Hard to believe more guys don't bet for a living when its this easy! Pffft.
     
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  19. zanepro

    zanepro Tourist

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    I wish it were this easy too, the average bettor (like myself) does not have the discipline or commitment to do it. It's all about the long term ROI, they could go 0-5 today but over 3 to 5 years of doing it they might be winning 56% of their bets, multiply that by 3 to 5 games a day at $1000 a bet and you're doing well.

    One example of how this works, if you look at odds history on team rankings they have a database that goes back to 2003. If you bet every NFL away favorite at a closing line of -1 from 2003 to today you would have won 58.7% of those bets. That's how these guys roll every year just betting percentages. If there was a line move of 7.5 to 8.5 and dogs covered 58% of the time on that move these guys would just auto bet that move whenever it happens. That's why old school pros auto bet double digit dogs every week because the dogs cover DD a high percentage of the time over the long term, although I don't think that play has worked well for the last 2 years. On Monday I wouldn't take Buffalo lol but I wouldn't give up that many points either.
     
  20. Brad8173

    Brad8173 Tourist

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    I
    think the 1st guy was right. This is not.
    Lines moves to keep both sides balanced - this is done by the book and not by the guy making the pick.

    B