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Video Poker Fluctuating VP bets?

Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by WolfpackRobNC, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. WolfpackRobNC

    WolfpackRobNC Low-Roller

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    If I’m not specifically chasing comps, what is the conventional wisdom regarding fluctuating my bets on JoB?

    There’s obviously no science to it. You’re doing it based on gut. I perceive to have had some success extending my bankroll doing this lately, but it could just be wishful thinking. I am currently playing with fake chips on the Binion’s app, so I haven’t tried it in the real world yet.
     
  2. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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    I can not imagine it changes the outcome at all.

    There are two things that are true though.

    The smaller your bet, the longer your bankroll will last - statistically.
    The larger your bet, the less time your bankroll will last - again, statistically.

    Moving your bet up and down has no bearing on getting a good hand - especially that Royal. Some folks saying not playing max on VP is almost sin due the the (near normal) extra bonus on getting Royal with max play.
     
  3. Don the Dentist

    Don the Dentist LV resident

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    That is not true. It is not "almost" a sin. Its a VERY BIG SIN!!
     
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  4. h0und10

    h0und10 VIP Whale

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    You are technically giving up some house edge by not betting max.
    but play what you have fun playing, it is a game after all
     
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  5. journaljim

    journaljim Low-Roller

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    Always bet max! I do try to follow the Royal Flusher's rules for parlay, though.
     
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  6. marksind

    marksind VIP Whale

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    Whatever you feel comfortable doing. We play 90% max be quarter VP, sometimes multi-hand Super Times Pay or Ultimate X. I almost always start play with $100, sometimes $300 if I'm going to play for hours in a sitting. If I get up decently, say $80 or more, I'll often press to $.50. If I get up over $100 I'll sometimes press to $1. If I give half that back (which usually happens quickly) I'll drop back to quarters. Been doing this for several years, and can't say I've ever hit it big while pressing. Typically result is that I'm back to quarters after a few minutes.
     
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  7. spdandpwr

    spdandpwr VIP Whale

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    I have done this with 0 success...sometimes you might hit, but I end up losing more often than not. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but I wouldn't be surprised if something is logging time played / bets made on the machine and determining a specific payback. That's probably why I see more RFs
     
  8. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    I do this. But need to clarify somethings.

    1) say playing quarters. If you loose your $20 does this reset the parlay? ie if I burn through 3 x $20’s without ever getting to double, do I wait to double at 160x3? Or do I start with each new deposit?

    2) What if, at quarters you put in $100 bills at a time? Do you double at a 160 credit positive or wait till you double the $100? (800credits).
     
  9. journaljim

    journaljim Low-Roller

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    @fenway68 in order and some extras 1) - for me it does. Each twenty is a unique unit and and I always start at quarters when doing this.
    2) I go break the hondo before I sit down so I am only using twenties.
    3) of course, actual mileage may vary and all that.
    4) pay attention! I was playing DDB once and hit a low quad. Bumped the denom to .50 and second hand in got aces but only then did I notice the machine reset to JoB when I changed the denom. Ugh.
     
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  10. nostresshere

    nostresshere Mr. Anti Debit Card

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  11. journaljim

    journaljim Low-Roller

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  12. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    Cool. That’s how I play it too! Just making sure I was doing it the flusher way!! When I first tried it, I did it off my cumulative bankroll and quickly realized I wasn’t going to catch up.

    I had #4 happen to me before, wound up playing DB of all things, ugh! So now I always double check the game when I do a denom change.

    Was thinking of trying a reverse parlay. Starting w $100 at dollars and flipping to 50c if I loose half and quarters if I loose half again. Probably a not great idea. But maybe it will mix things up for once. I need a game changer. On a bit of a drought.
     
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  13. bnlphan

    bnlphan Degenerate In Training

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    I've had some success doing this at times. At the local interenet cafe before the state police raided it they had pot of gold machines some times we'd stop in and only take $20 bucks. They had 8/5 JoB at 50 cents..I know not the best but hey just $20. Anyways I'd up it to $1 and play single credit until I got ahead then go max (which was only $2 to qualify for jackpot was at $1900 when they went out of business) but there were several times I turned that 20 into 200. Yes there were times I went broke in 5 minutes but a risk you take.
    Last march I had $230 in points to use and went to Bellagio and a $5 9/6 JoB machine. Played single credit again until I got ahead. Turn the 230 into $750. so ended well.
    I know its a sin as said above but if you are happy with hitting the 250 credit Royal at the amount you are playing and willing to take that risk more power to you.

    On a similar note. I will often change games. At skyline in september I was playing JoB and had went on a long dry spell with no 4oak. And I know there's no real logic to it but I switched to Bonus Deluxe because I was "due" after about 20 hands bam $100 instead of the $31.25
     
  14. wasilla

    wasilla Low-Roller

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    Fluctuating VP bets is likely to affect your outcome. You're just not going to know how. Just the process of altering your bet will mean that the RNG will give you different cards than you would have gotten if you hadn't interrupted your play to make the switch. I've started at .25 and been very happy when I hit a RF on dollars. I've also dropped to .25 and hit a royal. Once again very happy I may have hit a RF if I stayed at dollars, but it wouldn't have been that one. RNG's.

    I change betting denominations sometimes to enhance potential wins or minimize potential losses. That also simultaneously enhances your potential losses or reduces potential wins Sometimes it is going to help and sometimes it is going to hurt.. The idea that someone can be a profitable player through a betting strategy seems strange to me.

    I know that many and hopefully most of you will look at this as incredibly obviously obvious stuff. With all respect to royal flusher, his rules of parlay are just a decision to either reduce or increase the risks or rewards at $20 intervals. The hope is to increase the win on a good run of cards while reducing exposure during a bad run. Good runs do happen occasionally. What also happens is that a lot of twenties get eaten at twice the rate. If you've ever hit aces, deuces, or a royal on your last credits, you know those extra 40 credits can matter. Anyone with a crystal ball could make a fortune of this. The rest of us will fall into YMMV. Statistically it will make no difference. Practically, no one can predict what the difference will be.

    I'll leave it to nostresshere to summarize.


     
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  15. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    Clarify this part of your post if you would. As I understand it the RNG is 100% independent of the amount I bet. And is 100% independent hand to hand. So fluctuating my bet should not affect the RNG, right? I may be misinterpreting your thought.

    “Fluctuating VP bets is likely to affect your outcome. You're just not going to know how. Just the process of altering your bet will mean that the RNG will give you different cards than you would have gotten if you hadn't interrupted your play to make the switch.”

    Flushers rules are for fun. And just a way for me to build my confidence betting higher denoms. Ease into it per se.
     
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  16. pirviii

    pirviii Low-Roller

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    I think the difference in the RNG is due to the time it takes to switch denomination and/or games, thousands of numbers go by in milliseconds.
     
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  17. ken2v

    ken2v Wish I was in Bend

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    I'm not really sure what the goal is here. The RNG is always going, always random, and an eye-bat change in tempo will change the outcome but it's not predictive so it is neither "good" nor "bad" for the player. If betting less than max credit, you're leaving a few points of advantage on the table because the RF payout goes geometric on that last coin. If changing denoms, still no impact "positive" or "negative" with the RNG, but you could be triggering a lesser pay scale.
     
  18. fenway68

    fenway68 VIP Whale

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    And you can’t count any of those “numbers” because each instance is independent. Just because the RNG isn’t stopped at a certain time. Thats the whole idea behind RNG. And gambling probability in the first place.
     
  19. Chuck2009x

    Chuck2009x VIP Whale

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    Same as with any other gambling strategy deviation - most of the time, whatever you do, at some point you'll wish you hadn't. And if you don't, you'll wish you had. :cool:
     
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  20. wasilla

    wasilla Low-Roller

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    I think that this is both funny and true.
     
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